Movies · resolved market
Will "How to Train Your Dragon" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 90-94?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd7469c1bd99c2b55f4b7bf663f8e2ced51ebce8b6a9da36074a1a6ed8160338c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $53,994
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,404
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,994 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd347…5205backed No | 73c | 7,007$5,115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,892.48 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x882f…322dbacked Yes | 2c | 3,020$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.64 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f5b…b598backed Yes | 4c | 2,468$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.56 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf031…89b5backed Yes | 13c | 1,920$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.9 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63b1…1676backed Yes | 26c | 1,580$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf1…80a7backed Yes | 27c | 1,570$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.28 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04bf…7cafbacked Yes | 22c | 1,235$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.08 | 77 | 35.1%27 W · 50 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed Yes | 46c | 700.31$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.75 | 200 | 49.5%99 W · 101 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e8…e81fbacked Yes | 23c | 666.31$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.79 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8044…727fbacked Yes | 6c | 613.96$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e2f…578fbacked No | 78c | 586$457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.64 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 7c | 581.28$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.11 | 67 | 3%2 W · 65 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 9cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 74c | 540.1$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.93 | 365 | 38.1%139 W · 226 L | -19.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 18c | 455.25$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.61 | 92 | 31.5%29 W · 63 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 38c | 450.56$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.74 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32f4…c885backed Yes | 16c | 431.18$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 166 | 14.5%24 W · 142 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c1…56f0backed Yes | 25c | 372.64$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.53 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd240…562cbacked Yes | 13c | 355.79$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.21 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 71c | 267.69$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.14 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 26c | 264.3$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.98 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad7e…f9ebbacked Yes | 29c | 249.99$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.38per pick | 52cpaid | -81%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x935d…08ffbacked No | 65c | 237.95$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.43 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -23%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 40c | 227.08$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.58 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +64.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 72c | 223$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.37 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3c…c31ebacked Yes | 16c | 210$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 190 | 31.1%59 W · 131 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cab…7222backed Yes | 10c | 205.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked Yes | 12c | 191$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.23 | 146 | 28.1%41 W · 105 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e1…7c9fbacked No | 61c | 187$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.09 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…af36backed Yes | 25c | 150$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 97 | 53.6%52 W · 45 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b34…7eb8backed Yes | 29c | 143$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.47 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcced…9ffebacked No | 73c | 123$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.53 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b3b…63b9backed Yes | 26c | 120$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +61.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 21c | 111.9$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.37 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfead…b304backed Yes | 41c | 102.17$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 73c | 100.74$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.14 | 80 | 40%32 W · 48 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1543…4dbabacked Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91fe…7d32backed Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 31cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a49…7447backed No | 70c | 98.17$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -71.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x350e…6539backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b24…01abbacked Yes | 26c | 76.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 98 | 51%50 W · 48 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa196…d097backed Yes | 16c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 29c | 68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb877…a13fbacked Yes | 20c | 66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f52…5ef2backed Yes | 18c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa7…5455backed Yes | 21c | 56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c8…7a83backed Yes | 24c | 55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 57c | 54.7$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.47 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6012…7cd2backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf28e…3d19backed Yes | 47c | 48.94$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dee…f4e6backed No | 80c | 45$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.18 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d5…4739backed Yes | 43c | 34.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "How to Train Your Dragon" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 90-94?this page
- Will "How to Train Your Dragon" Rotten Tomatoes score be 95 or higher?No won
- Will "How to Train Your Dragon" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 75-79?Yes won
- Will "How to Train Your Dragon" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 80-84?No won
- Will "How to Train Your Dragon" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 85-89?No won
- Will "How to Train Your Dragon" Rotten Tomatoes score be less than 75?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.