TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will "How to Train Your Dragon" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 85-89?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$89,051
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$80,631

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $89,051 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x682d…4cd6backed Yes1c9,637$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.4232814.9%49 W · 279 L+14.2wins+0.04per pick11cpaid-59.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd347…5205backed No75c8,522$6,403 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,119.024540%18 W · 27 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7494…6e0bbacked Yes23c7,847$1,781 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,780.73423.5%8 W · 26 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+68.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3c7…020cbacked Yes0c4,434$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1040%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbd4…357cbacked Yes25c4,065$1,017 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,017.09333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-52%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c4e…e65abacked Yes9c3,000$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.38520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick17cpaid-33.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x2032…d577backed No57c2,504$1,425 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,079.1420049.5%99 W · 101 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x63b1…1676backed Yes43c2,500$1,075 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0751729.4%5 W · 12 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick23cpaid-17.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x524c…64c8backed Yes13c2,263$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.89254%1 W · 24 L-2.3wins-0.09per pick13cpaid-93.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2cf1…80a7backed Yes36c2,248$799 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$799.241526.7%4 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick25cpaid+29.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9613…18b8backed Yes1c2,158$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed Yes2c1,739$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.3914212%17 W · 125 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick14cpaid-75.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x882f…322dbacked Yes19c852.06$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.93450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-33.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes9c709.08$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.551,3948%111 W · 1,283 L-47.9wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x04bf…7cafbacked Yes32c679.54$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.47735.1%27 W · 50 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-7.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x490f…17e5backed Yes10c665.57$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.93673%2 W · 65 L-4.0wins-0.06per pick9cpaid-75.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x53c4…6582backed Yes6c490.17$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$313713.5%5 W · 32 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-47.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No77c469.13$363 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.687033.3%290 W · 580 L-77.0wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-37.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xb2c1…56f0backed Yes19c349.27$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.184337.2%16 W · 27 L+0.1wins0.00per pick37cpaid+42.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe732…898fbacked Yes24c311$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.4314628.1%41 W · 105 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-29.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes25c306$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.448414%68 W · 416 L-39.3wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-43.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd0e1…7c9fbacked No77c300.52$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.412458.3%14 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-17.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd240…562cbacked Yes27c290.2$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.563429.4%10 W · 24 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick24cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f5b…b598backed Yes30c283$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.918536.5%31 W · 54 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf797…0bf2backed No69c270.16$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.893231.3%10 W · 22 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick33cpaid+4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcced…9ffebacked No77c265.08$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.042360.9%14 W · 9 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick60cpaid+3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes23c227.08$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.447038.6%27 W · 43 L+4.7wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+64.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5cab…7222backed Yes18c221.8$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick24cpaid-51.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b3b…63b9backed Yes21c218.39$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.842828.6%8 W · 20 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick23cpaid+61.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xad7e…f9ebbacked Yes34c214$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.3714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.6wins-0.38per pick52cpaid-81%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x179e…ebe8backed Yes10c200$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20726.9%5 W · 67 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-39.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x91fe…7d32backed Yes30c200$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.8wins-0.15per pick31cpaid-69.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x43f8…2903backed Yes22c195.94$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.463145.2%14 W · 17 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-21.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xed95…b1e6backed Yes31c182.13$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.93225%8 W · 24 L-2.9wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-55.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x32f4…c885backed Yes15c159.08$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.3616614.5%24 W · 142 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-32.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0619…d801backed Yes22c150$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$334420.5%9 W · 35 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-30.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c67…8b76backed Yes23c150$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.97030%21 W · 49 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick26cpaid+4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfead…b304backed Yes36c150$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$541315.4%2 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick21cpaid-36.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b34…7eb8backed Yes28c143$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.042951.7%15 W · 14 L+1.9wins+0.07per pick45cpaid-2.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes18c136.85$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.3167232%215 W · 457 L+14.4wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-30%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c27…1555backed Yes22c135$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.72470.8%17 W · 7 L+2.1wins+0.09per pick62cpaid+15.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed No71c133.7$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.456622.7%15 W · 51 L-3.6wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-50.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbabd…3335backed Yes19c120.47$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.481127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-19.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a24…9508backed Yes61c97.85$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.20per pick33cpaid-78.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0978…00e6backed No71c89.62$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.713151.6%16 W · 15 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+10.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x22c6…cf2abacked Yes18c81$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.56333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick20cpaid+126.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb877…a13fbacked Yes24c78$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191816.7%3 W · 15 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-76.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x97df…3088backed Yes24c73.89$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.062536%9 W · 16 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-17.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc5a6…321abacked Yes21c70$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.72020%4 W · 16 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-10.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b24…01abbacked Yes31c63.64$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209851%50 W · 48 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-6.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa196…d097backed Yes17c60$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.21030%3 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-57.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd8…0fe9backed Yes33c60$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.816624.1%40 W · 126 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-25.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf4b5…82eabacked Yes20c50$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1040%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes28c47.3$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4650633.4%169 W · 337 L-30.0wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-31.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6dee…f4e6backed No70c43.91$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.112965.5%19 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x04dc…2387backed No65c24$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.412539.2%49 W · 76 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+10.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.