TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

US-Iran nuclear deal before July?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,905,711
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,536,662

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,905,711 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 768 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes26c235,276$60,658 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60,657.754259.5%25 W · 17 L+4.6wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+28.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc851…cd2abacked Yes25c88,725$22,335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,334.994542.2%19 W · 26 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf031…89b5backed Yes13c40,484$5,334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,334.395825.9%15 W · 43 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick22cpaid+42.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb657…6c1fbacked No59c38,327$22,613 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,714.07250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick56cpaid-15.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x457e…afd3backed Yes41c38,327$15,714 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,714.0710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x52b7…4597backed Yes25c37,885$9,495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,494.51728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.17per pick45cpaid-39.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe97c…2a99backed No65c35,791$23,327 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,464.251656.3%9 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick56cpaid-17.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes22c33,854$7,404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,404.0241238.8%160 W · 252 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-8.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5739…5f1abacked No74c29,020$21,568 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,452.06450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-18.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0394…3ef9backed Yes12c28,143$3,388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,387.51812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick18cpaid-13.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6058…d286backed No76c27,024$20,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,523.651100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed Yes18c25,130$4,467 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,467.1437844.4%168 W · 210 L+33.3wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+64.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd3de…d680backed Yes4c23,637$830 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$830.520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d9f…9790backed Yes21c23,572$4,878 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,878.275240.4%21 W · 31 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-22.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b3d…76ddbacked Yes7c23,361$1,695 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,695.236028.3%17 W · 43 L+0.1wins0.00per pick28cpaid-41.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x662c…bfe7backed No74c22,671$16,672 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,999.643852.6%20 W · 18 L+4.5wins+0.12per pick41cpaid+0.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd262…8553backed Yes40c22,490$8,926 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,926.09633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-29.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x06ac…79ecbacked No77c20,617$15,781 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,835.8650%3 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-31.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdda3…8afebacked No72c20,466$14,669 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,797.411323.1%3 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.11per pick34cpaid-16.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5e9c…cd75backed Yes13c19,068$2,407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,407.411428.1%32 W · 82 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-27.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c87…9bd4backed Yes23c18,725$4,267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,266.544353.5%23 W · 20 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa638…1d87backed Yes11c18,487$2,090 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,089.524427.3%12 W · 32 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-9.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc781…59d7backed No74c18,272$13,462 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,810.223240.6%13 W · 19 L+0.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid+38.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7f6…13d9backed Yes9c17,866$1,642 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,642.3330%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x801d…d8e0backed No74c17,668$13,042 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,626.041931.6%6 W · 13 L-1.8wins-0.09per pick41cpaid-33.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x48ed…33bebacked Yes12c17,317$2,084 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,084.21333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick25cpaid+8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x030a…acfcbacked Yes27c16,416$4,514 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,513.746051.7%31 W · 29 L+5.5wins+0.09per pick42cpaid+14.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x20cb…719bbacked Yes22c16,201$3,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,50010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4c4…6648backed Yes19c15,568$3,035 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,034.5520%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Yes14c15,459$2,239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,238.661618.8%3 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick21cpaid-49.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8890…79bdbacked Yes15c15,000$2,228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,228.343727%10 W · 27 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-28.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd44e…67e2backed No61c13,530$8,261 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,269.365451.9%28 W · 26 L+3.6wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+9.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x110a…38a8backed Yes0c13,333$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30397.7%3 W · 36 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick5cpaid-55.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x253d…3307backed Yes9c12,375$1,102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,101.772661.5%16 W · 10 L+3.6wins+0.14per pick48cpaid+8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0ced…12b2backed Yes12c12,362$1,471 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,471.072035%7 W · 13 L-2.3wins-0.12per pick47cpaid-45.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf797…0bf2backed Yes6c12,297$687 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$687.3818745.5%85 W · 102 L+8.5wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+10.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x551b…dfd1backed Yes11c12,253$1,406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,406.06837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.12per pick25cpaid+8.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbec7…6cfdbacked No69c12,166$8,382 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,784.531478.6%11 W · 3 L+5.1wins+0.36per pick42cpaid+119.5%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x7504…9c69backed Yes21c12,079$2,514 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,514.442020%4 W · 16 L-2.6wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-47.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xea83…5c8fbacked Yes23c12,075$2,778 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,778.172245.5%10 W · 12 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick40cpaid-11.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf2f6…5817backed Yes25c12,000$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,999.993234.4%11 W · 21 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-37.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c2d…f8aebacked No64c11,729$7,474 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,255.582619.2%5 W · 21 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick26cpaid-61.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb1d9…4ce3backed Yes9c11,594$1,008 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,007.7930%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes15c10,895$1,622 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,621.5844111.3%50 W · 391 L-44.5wins-0.10per pick21cpaid-52.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x58b5…df91backed No63c10,670$6,755 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,914.67540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-38.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x551e…b0e0backed Yes13c10,525$1,353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,352.534744.7%21 W · 26 L+6.0wins+0.13per pick32cpaid+52.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x889e…09e0backed No59c10,376$6,099 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,277.5310749.5%53 W · 54 L+10.6wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+61.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0d05…6a81backed Yes7c9,964$673 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$673.05368.3%3 W · 33 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-82.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x12bf…ddafbacked No70c9,881$6,944 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,936.434818.8%9 W · 39 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-29.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x490f…17e5backed Yes7c9,568$632 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$631.8418322.4%41 W · 142 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-18.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes19c9,415$1,765 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,765.374045%18 W · 22 L+4.6wins+0.11per pick34cpaid+67.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0a26…1851backed No65c9,014$5,895 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,119.431136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.14per pick50cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdde1…ea9bbacked Yes17c8,945$1,527 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,527.267244.4%32 W · 40 L+8.7wins+0.12per pick32cpaid+15.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6367…e938backed Yes14c8,797$1,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,249.769426.6%25 W · 69 L+3.9wins+0.04per pick22cpaid-6.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5cd5…ac33backed No74c8,677$6,447 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,229.943658.3%21 W · 15 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick64cpaid-15.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x52ad…337dbacked Yes27c8,663$2,311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,311.22825%2 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-13.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4273…19d8backed Yes10c8,511$872 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$872.43122.6%7 W · 24 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick19cpaid+34.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa94d…415fbacked No63c8,233$5,146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,087.441100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+60%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7678…e5f0backed Yes28c8,231$2,329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,328.533542.9%15 W · 20 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+48.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1099…903cbacked Yes7c8,078$527 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$527.11533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-2.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6bab…1292backed Yes14c8,064$1,152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,152.336546.2%30 W · 35 L+4.3wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+29.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes25c8,023$2,028 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,028.2818033.3%60 W · 120 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-10.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x79dc…ca77backed Yes1c7,819$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.02224.5%1 W · 21 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick10cpaid-90.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6cbb…89abbacked Yes27c7,610$2,077 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,077.436526.2%17 W · 48 L+0.2wins0.00per pick26cpaid-11.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa020…d807backed Yes27c7,424$1,972 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,972.121020%2 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick19cpaid+147.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x80cf…614dbacked Yes12c7,214$881 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$880.983033.3%10 W · 20 L+2.1wins+0.07per pick26cpaid-11.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb481…bb2cbacked Yes27c7,139$1,898 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,898.154259.5%25 W · 17 L+2.4wins+0.06per pick54cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed Yes15c7,024$1,057 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,056.8528320.5%58 W · 225 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-21.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe471…c87cbacked Yes14c6,837$932 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$931.981735.3%6 W · 11 L+2.3wins+0.14per pick22cpaid+73.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x06ec…f845backed Yes11c6,760$715 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$714.6221935.2%77 W · 142 L+8.8wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1a87…4e00backed Yes12c6,752$801 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$800.711921.1%4 W · 15 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-29.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed Yes34c6,603$2,222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,22237533.3%125 W · 250 L-17.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-24.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5afd…7e8dbacked No75c6,431$4,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,630.63757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x912a…0f92backed Yes3c6,043$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.0218516.2%30 W · 155 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick15cpaid-33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb1fe…423abacked Yes43c5,796$2,493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,493.3514125.5%36 W · 105 L+0.7wins0.00per pick25cpaid-10.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8528…d446backed Yes5c5,732$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-44.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd22…9ef1backed No75c5,668$4,255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,413.6714135.5%50 W · 91 L-4.4wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-30.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xed4f…e25abacked Yes13c5,622$719 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$719.2185.6%1 W · 17 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick10cpaid-23.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0386…290fbacked Yes52c5,459$2,838 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,838475%3 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.32per pick43cpaid+102.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x066a…550dbacked No76c5,417$4,128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,288.454339.5%17 W · 26 L-3.0wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-23.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x37e4…c991backed No62c5,300$3,281 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,019.031540%6 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-28.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd053…f7c0backed Yes24c5,234$1,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,249.93517.1%6 W · 29 L-3.6wins-0.10per pick28cpaid-55.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes26c5,188$1,367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,366.8814241.5%59 W · 83 L+9.3wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+18.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x326d…ec8fbacked Yes10c5,109$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$510.540%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3069…f8efbacked No74c5,028$3,741 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,286.26354%34 W · 29 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-13.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes14c5,019$690 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$690.3212630.2%38 W · 88 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+105.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x020b…d13cbacked No61c4,965$3,008 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,956.711283.3%10 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.11per pick72cpaid+12.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc19d…865ebacked Yes20c4,959$983 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$982.562313%3 W · 20 L-2.9wins-0.13per pick26cpaid-82.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x038f…ba58backed Yes7c4,926$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34040%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0cbf…4665backed Yes37c4,773$1,779 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,778.81560%3 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.26per pick34cpaid+55.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2c3e…3d75backed No71c4,651$3,321 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,329.561250%6 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+1.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x118f…4f4bbacked Yes13c4,650$611 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3391…7200backed Yes19c4,634$862 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbad…9c95backed No53c4,609$2,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,169.43955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbe89…b88cbacked No55c4,603$2,551 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,052.0115243.4%66 W · 86 L+9.6wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+14.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked No64c4,500$2,865 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,6355442.6%23 W · 31 L-3.0wins-0.06per pick48cpaid+6.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5c16…df3abacked No78c4,364$3,417 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$946.528640.7%35 W · 51 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-22.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5799…db25backed No69c4,341$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,340.95580%4 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.23per pick57cpaid+61.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes23c4,326$993 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$992.549831.6%31 W · 67 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-26.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb8e…b243backed Yes13c4,314$571 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$571.473652.8%19 W · 17 L+5.4wins+0.15per pick38cpaid+29.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.