Us Politics · resolved market
US-Iran nuclear deal before July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x896d1877ca71ffa3d43c046fdacd4470f1a8c0cf91e14ed66d9d0e0b3099dfe5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,905,711
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,536,662
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,905,711 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 768 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes | 26c | 235,276$60,658 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60,657.75 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +4.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc851…cd2abacked Yes | 25c | 88,725$22,335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,334.99 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf031…89b5backed Yes | 13c | 40,484$5,334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,334.39 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb657…6c1fbacked No | 59c | 38,327$22,613 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,714.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x457e…afd3backed Yes | 41c | 38,327$15,714 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,714.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52b7…4597backed Yes | 25c | 37,885$9,495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,494.51 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe97c…2a99backed No | 65c | 35,791$23,327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,464.25 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 22c | 33,854$7,404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,404.02 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5739…5f1abacked No | 74c | 29,020$21,568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,452.06 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0394…3ef9backed Yes | 12c | 28,143$3,388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,387.51 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6058…d286backed No | 76c | 27,024$20,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,523.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 18c | 25,130$4,467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,467.14 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd3de…d680backed Yes | 4c | 23,637$830 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$830.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed Yes | 21c | 23,572$4,878 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,878.27 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3d…76ddbacked Yes | 7c | 23,361$1,695 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,695.23 | 60 | 28.3%17 W · 43 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x662c…bfe7backed No | 74c | 22,671$16,672 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,999.64 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +4.5wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd262…8553backed Yes | 40c | 22,490$8,926 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,926.09 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06ac…79ecbacked No | 77c | 20,617$15,781 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,835.8 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdda3…8afebacked No | 72c | 20,466$14,669 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,797.41 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9c…cd75backed Yes | 13c | 19,068$2,407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,407.4 | 114 | 28.1%32 W · 82 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c87…9bd4backed Yes | 23c | 18,725$4,267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,266.54 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed Yes | 11c | 18,487$2,090 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,089.52 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc781…59d7backed No | 74c | 18,272$13,462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,810.22 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f6…13d9backed Yes | 9c | 17,866$1,642 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,642.33 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x801d…d8e0backed No | 74c | 17,668$13,042 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,626.04 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48ed…33bebacked Yes | 12c | 17,317$2,084 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,084.21 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x030a…acfcbacked Yes | 27c | 16,416$4,514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,513.74 | 60 | 51.7%31 W · 29 L | +5.5wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x20cb…719bbacked Yes | 22c | 16,201$3,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c4…6648backed Yes | 19c | 15,568$3,035 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,034.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Yes | 14c | 15,459$2,239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,238.66 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8890…79bdbacked Yes | 15c | 15,000$2,228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,228.34 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed No | 61c | 13,530$8,261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,269.36 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x110a…38a8backed Yes | 0c | 13,333$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 39 | 7.7%3 W · 36 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x253d…3307backed Yes | 9c | 12,375$1,102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,101.77 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +3.6wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0ced…12b2backed Yes | 12c | 12,362$1,471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,471.07 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 6c | 12,297$687 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$687.38 | 187 | 45.5%85 W · 102 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x551b…dfd1backed Yes | 11c | 12,253$1,406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,406.06 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbec7…6cfdbacked No | 69c | 12,166$8,382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,784.53 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +5.1wins | +0.36per pick | 42cpaid | +119.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7504…9c69backed Yes | 21c | 12,079$2,514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,514.44 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…5c8fbacked Yes | 23c | 12,075$2,778 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,778.17 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Yes | 25c | 12,000$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,999.99 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked No | 64c | 11,729$7,474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,255.58 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1d9…4ce3backed Yes | 9c | 11,594$1,008 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,007.79 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 15c | 10,895$1,622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,621.58 | 441 | 11.3%50 W · 391 L | -44.5wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x58b5…df91backed No | 63c | 10,670$6,755 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,914.67 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x551e…b0e0backed Yes | 13c | 10,525$1,353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,352.53 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | +6.0wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x889e…09e0backed No | 59c | 10,376$6,099 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,277.53 | 107 | 49.5%53 W · 54 L | +10.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 7c | 9,964$673 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$673.05 | 36 | 8.3%3 W · 33 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -82.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12bf…ddafbacked No | 70c | 9,881$6,944 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,936.43 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 7c | 9,568$632 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$631.84 | 183 | 22.4%41 W · 142 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes | 19c | 9,415$1,765 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,765.37 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +4.6wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a26…1851backed No | 65c | 9,014$5,895 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,119.43 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdde1…ea9bbacked Yes | 17c | 8,945$1,527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,527.26 | 72 | 44.4%32 W · 40 L | +8.7wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6367…e938backed Yes | 14c | 8,797$1,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,249.76 | 94 | 26.6%25 W · 69 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd5…ac33backed No | 74c | 8,677$6,447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,229.94 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52ad…337dbacked Yes | 27c | 8,663$2,311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,311.22 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4273…19d8backed Yes | 10c | 8,511$872 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$872.4 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa94d…415fbacked No | 63c | 8,233$5,146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,087.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +60%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7678…e5f0backed Yes | 28c | 8,231$2,329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,328.53 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1099…903cbacked Yes | 7c | 8,078$527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$527.1 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…1292backed Yes | 14c | 8,064$1,152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,152.33 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes | 25c | 8,023$2,028 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,028.28 | 180 | 33.3%60 W · 120 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Yes | 1c | 7,819$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.02 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -90.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cbb…89abbacked Yes | 27c | 7,610$2,077 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,077.43 | 65 | 26.2%17 W · 48 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa020…d807backed Yes | 27c | 7,424$1,972 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,972.12 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +147.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80cf…614dbacked Yes | 12c | 7,214$881 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$880.98 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb481…bb2cbacked Yes | 27c | 7,139$1,898 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,898.15 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 15c | 7,024$1,057 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,056.85 | 283 | 20.5%58 W · 225 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…c87cbacked Yes | 14c | 6,837$932 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$931.98 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 22cpaid | +73.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed Yes | 11c | 6,760$715 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$714.62 | 219 | 35.2%77 W · 142 L | +8.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a87…4e00backed Yes | 12c | 6,752$801 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800.71 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 34c | 6,603$2,222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,222 | 375 | 33.3%125 W · 250 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5afd…7e8dbacked No | 75c | 6,431$4,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,630.63 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 3c | 6,043$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.02 | 185 | 16.2%30 W · 155 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked Yes | 43c | 5,796$2,493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,493.35 | 141 | 25.5%36 W · 105 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8528…d446backed Yes | 5c | 5,732$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed No | 75c | 5,668$4,255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,413.67 | 141 | 35.5%50 W · 91 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed4f…e25abacked Yes | 13c | 5,622$719 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$719.2 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0386…290fbacked Yes | 52c | 5,459$2,838 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,838 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 43cpaid | +102.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x066a…550dbacked No | 76c | 5,417$4,128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,288.45 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37e4…c991backed No | 62c | 5,300$3,281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,019.03 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd053…f7c0backed Yes | 24c | 5,234$1,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,249.9 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | -3.6wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes | 26c | 5,188$1,367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,366.88 | 142 | 41.5%59 W · 83 L | +9.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x326d…ec8fbacked Yes | 10c | 5,109$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3069…f8efbacked No | 74c | 5,028$3,741 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,286.2 | 63 | 54%34 W · 29 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes | 14c | 5,019$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$690.32 | 126 | 30.2%38 W · 88 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +105.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x020b…d13cbacked No | 61c | 4,965$3,008 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,956.71 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 72cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc19d…865ebacked Yes | 20c | 4,959$983 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$982.56 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.13per pick | 26cpaid | -82.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x038f…ba58backed Yes | 7c | 4,926$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbf…4665backed Yes | 37c | 4,773$1,779 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,778.81 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 34cpaid | +55.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3e…3d75backed No | 71c | 4,651$3,321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,329.56 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x118f…4f4bbacked Yes | 13c | 4,650$611 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$611 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3391…7200backed Yes | 19c | 4,634$862 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$862 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbad…9c95backed No | 53c | 4,609$2,440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,169.43 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…b88cbacked No | 55c | 4,603$2,551 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,052.01 | 152 | 43.4%66 W · 86 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked No | 64c | 4,500$2,865 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,635 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c16…df3abacked No | 78c | 4,364$3,417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$946.52 | 86 | 40.7%35 W · 51 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5799…db25backed No | 69c | 4,341$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,340.95 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +61.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes | 23c | 4,326$993 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$992.54 | 98 | 31.6%31 W · 67 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…b243backed Yes | 13c | 4,314$571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$571.47 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +5.4wins | +0.15per pick | 38cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.