Ukraine · resolved market
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5412ae25e97078f814157de948459d59c6221b4c4c495fdd57b536543ad36729
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,125,743
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,021,128
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,125,743 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 3,769 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa47f…1ef8backed Yes | 34c | 594,837$199,346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199,345.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbad…9c95backed No | 68c | 511,952$348,786 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163,166.12 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbe…2cf3backed No | 56c | 453,161$254,332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198,829.61 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5739…5f1abacked No | 79c | 383,775$301,696 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82,079.56 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 23c | 298,195$67,856 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67,856.11 | 129 | 27.9%36 W · 93 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed72…e319backed Yes | 37c | 240,734$88,081 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88,081.42 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x714b…d071backed Yes | 11c | 185,555$21,214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,214.48 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x545d…c122backed Yes | 6c | 174,862$11,334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,334 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12bf…ddafbacked No | 76c | 159,792$120,753 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39,038.99 | 151 | 25.2%38 W · 113 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6a…f9d0backed Yes | 37c | 156,758$58,299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58,298.68 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c72…dfb6backed No | 67c | 152,717$102,221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50,495.84 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…c97cbacked No | 77c | 152,626$117,138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35,487.34 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cab…6817backed Yes | 26c | 152,604$40,162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40,162.45 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -81%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed No | 65c | 152,107$98,275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53,832.12 | 234 | 35.5%83 W · 151 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b93…ee1cbacked No | 49c | 132,012$64,686 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67,326.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5717…b1f0backed Yes | 51c | 132,012$67,326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67,326.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x063b…7328backed Yes | 29c | 127,424$36,460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36,459.58 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc781…59d7backed Yes | 35c | 125,437$43,676 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43,676.13 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -3.2wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x07a6…2e31backed No | 79c | 105,784$83,607 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,177.27 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x758c…074abacked Yes | 3c | 104,197$3,118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,118.04 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | +60.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0030…5fb5backed Yes | 26c | 103,657$27,138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27,137.6 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x602f…d46abacked Yes | 23c | 103,119$23,846 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23,845.95 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4558…a2b3backed No | 48c | 102,056$49,220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52,835.87 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +5.3wins | +0.31per pick | 39cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe3…73c4backed No | 53c | 101,630$53,449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48,181.24 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +5.1wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x642c…cd5dbacked Yes | 58c | 98,714$57,254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57,254.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x561d…4912backed No | 42c | 98,712$41,459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57,252.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e1f…8643backed No | 70c | 95,227$66,618 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28,609.18 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd49e…8541backed No | 72c | 91,301$65,765 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25,536.89 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 68c | 90,121$61,685 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28,435.63 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65ea…6662backed Yes | 6c | 88,145$5,093 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,093.22 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 36c | 83,044$29,612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29,612.39 | 101 | 37.6%38 W · 63 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5a…00f2backed No | 39c | 82,463$32,424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50,038.85 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed No | 47c | 80,204$37,810 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42,393.54 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x335d…c9c3backed Yes | 30c | 77,741$23,212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23,211.86 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x020b…d13cbacked No | 72c | 77,229$55,229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,999.81 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 65cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc3…c26bbacked Yes | 7c | 76,640$5,517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,517.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68a1…7c68backed Yes | 14c | 69,446$10,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,040.22 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 22cpaid | -87.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6897…cb1ebacked Yes | 6c | 68,846$4,316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,315.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ca6…04f8backed Yes | 35c | 68,694$24,085 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,084.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf84…703cbacked Yes | 14c | 66,187$9,367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,366.73 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a85bbacked Yes | 24c | 65,882$15,550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,549.86 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef19…91e7backed Yes | 46c | 65,449$30,375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30,375.41 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 9c | 61,680$5,403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,402.59 | 214 | 26.2%56 W · 158 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83d6…0489backed Yes | 25c | 61,076$15,308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,308.44 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.28per pick | 37cpaid | -87.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa14b…b944backed No | 70c | 58,547$41,041 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,505.36 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.0wins | -0.27per pick | 45cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbccb…6d3abacked Yes | 10c | 58,451$6,076 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,076.21 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xede5…7802backed Yes | 30c | 56,864$17,011 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,010.78 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bc2…4814backed Yes | 25c | 56,672$13,908 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,907.79 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a2…372abacked Yes | 60c | 55,970$33,416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33,415.95 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed Yes | 6c | 52,045$3,328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,327.58 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x814a…25adbacked Yes | 19c | 51,500$9,774 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,773.93 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.30per pick | 41cpaid | -85.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7d60…a726backed No | 43c | 51,436$22,262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29,174.93 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42a6…1b64backed Yes | 52c | 51,393$26,812 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26,811.74 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -4.2wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3427…7977backed Yes | 12c | 51,316$6,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,000 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa32…bd9abacked No | 67c | 50,813$33,916 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,897.68 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38a7…e476backed Yes | 56c | 50,105$28,163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28,163 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked Yes | 6c | 50,000$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,999.99 | 45 | 17.8%8 W · 37 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe97c…2a99backed No | 75c | 49,911$37,323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,587.56 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…3b8bbacked No | 44c | 49,818$21,848 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27,969.23 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.23per pick | 35cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4621…efccbacked Yes | 19c | 48,063$8,920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,920.37 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26dc…4741backed Yes | 40c | 47,936$19,191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,190.6 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e59…b85abacked Yes | 13c | 47,173$6,323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,322.62 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8890…79bdbacked Yes | 7c | 46,799$3,127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,126.54 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7307…6475backed Yes | 59c | 45,648$26,711 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26,710.92 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed Yes | 7c | 44,991$2,958 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,958.43 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…d424backed Yes | 44c | 43,974$19,216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,216.22 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ada…2f28backed No | 67c | 43,067$28,720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,347.05 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2359…f72bbacked Yes | 24c | 41,253$9,776 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,776.1 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +284.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc1…b8dfbacked No | 60c | 41,116$24,611 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,505.02 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +4.3wins | +0.33per pick | 44cpaid | +142.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…f90dbacked Yes | 38c | 40,538$15,345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,344.54 | 91 | 38.5%35 W · 56 L | +6.9wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +67%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…1546backed No | 48c | 39,844$19,103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,741 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8dcd…25e8backed Yes | 23c | 39,348$9,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,119.63 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a9…792cbacked Yes | 44c | 39,127$17,121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,121.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06ac…79ecbacked No | 71c | 38,966$27,643 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,323.13 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31b7…ff46backed Yes | 32c | 37,999$12,229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,229.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8ca…7229backed Yes | 61c | 37,764$23,082 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23,081.59 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x57cd…82acbacked No | 62c | 37,762$23,249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,512.79 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x843a…8070backed Yes | 26c | 37,129$9,525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,524.77 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1de…5834backed Yes | 7c | 36,874$2,473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,473.26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f6…13d9backed Yes | 24c | 35,878$8,482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,482.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7aa…d0f0backed Yes | 48c | 35,346$16,989 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,988.78 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xce8f…4400backed No | 57c | 35,149$20,083 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,066.75 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c16…df3abacked No | 76c | 34,834$26,568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,266.32 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +4.2wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed Yes | 35c | 34,802$12,083 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,082.89 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x889e…09e0backed No | 53c | 34,486$18,198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,287.47 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49a6…7049backed Yes | 7c | 33,533$2,493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,493.46 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeede…8a73backed No | 78c | 32,894$25,648 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,246.44 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x022e…d93fbacked No | 76c | 32,169$24,448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,720.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8961…cca0backed Yes | 24c | 32,169$7,721 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,720.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x000d…758ebacked No | 72c | 32,026$23,036 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,989.56 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x155c…1b09backed Yes | 14c | 31,735$4,458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,458.33 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc1e…16dcbacked No | 69c | 31,655$21,908 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,747.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x662c…bfe7backed No | 72c | 31,620$22,808 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,811.91 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3e…58c7backed Yes | 39c | 31,527$12,407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,406.91 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c3…74aebacked No | 79c | 31,482$25,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,482.09 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed Yes | 47c | 31,474$14,677 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,677.39 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0802…8cb0backed No | 42c | 30,886$13,001 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,885.17 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…1e95backed Yes | 2c | 30,611$744 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$744.1 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -79%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7524…25b8backed No | 72c | 30,447$21,798 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,649.19 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda03…65febacked Yes | 17c | 29,981$5,130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,130 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.