Us Politics · resolved market
Will Qatar gift Trump a new Air Force One before July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb361aeecf5e34bfa760c3f715970e8b244f50d747e1843edd8698848a7fc4d9d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,567
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,560
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,567 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 1,374$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 398 | 9.5%38 W · 360 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf00a…c77cbacked Yes | 9c | 692.23$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.84 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf501…8852backed Yes | 28c | 499.99$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.23per pick | 46cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 2c | 477.57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd0…bc3dbacked Yes | 8c | 378.13$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.32 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 15c | 358.15$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.05 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 19c | 331.29$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.27 | 375 | 33.3%125 W · 250 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb1…bf68backed Yes | 9c | 308.33$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.75 | 106 | 30.2%32 W · 74 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d39…fa04backed No | 79c | 256.26$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.14 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 22c | 244.34$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.62 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1d…c011backed Yes | 25c | 199.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbe…2586backed No | 72c | 131.94$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.94 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 19c | 126.49$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.03 | 252 | 41.7%105 W · 147 L | -17.2wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6cbb…89abbacked Yes | 25c | 111$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.75 | 65 | 26.2%17 W · 48 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x730a…51a0backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 135 | 25.9%35 W · 100 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 22c | 99.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 193 | 28.5%55 W · 138 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 13c | 94.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 336 | 27.4%92 W · 244 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6179…9640backed No | 71c | 65.97$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.07 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.17per pick | 44cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4682…de69backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d18…4972backed Yes | 40c | 37.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5276…7004backed Yes | 58c | 34.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3718…dd6cbacked No | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b34…7eb8backed No | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e0…1871backed No | 60c | 29.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7a…829ebacked No | 70c | 25.63$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.62 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb5e…af8dbacked No | 68c | 22.68$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dee…f4e6backed No | 79c | 21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.41 | 76 | 75%57 W · 19 L | +9.4wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.