TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Israel x Hamas ceasefire before July?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$6,106,878
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$5,641,020

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,106,878 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,537 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes35c449,520$156,938 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156,938.1537740.1%151 W · 226 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6cbb…89abbacked Yes40c191,595$76,439 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76,438.922516%4 W · 21 L-2.0wins-0.08per pick24cpaid-28.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes36c169,550$61,594 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61,593.6151138.7%198 W · 313 L+18.7wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c72…dfb6backed No63c116,641$73,473 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43,168.615141.2%21 W · 30 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-22.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4c2d…f8aebacked No46c108,974$49,747 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59,226.8440433.7%136 W · 268 L+12.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-14.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5bcd…fa31backed No74c98,195$72,345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,850.251553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-13.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0261…94f1backed Yes67c82,731$55,430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55,429.7710%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4d56…2400backed No33c82,721$27,298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55,423.071100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.67per pick33cpaid+203%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x05ff…6e4fbacked No56c72,356$40,519 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31,836.641100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43c6…67c0backed Yes44c72,356$31,837 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31,836.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd46b…5dabbacked Yes62c65,500$40,666 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40,665.5716743.7%73 W · 94 L+11.9wins+0.07per pick37cpaid+21%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1dfb…02f0backed No57c59,045$33,656 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,389.351100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa44c…c458backed Yes43c59,045$25,389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,389.3510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x62cf…5826backed No79c57,623$45,314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,308.716262.9%39 W · 23 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+1.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xea07…5ee8backed No32c57,078$18,265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38,813.041100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.68per pick32cpaid+212.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8a56…3b4ebacked Yes68c57,078$38,813 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38,813.0410%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x07cd…21bbbacked No47c53,853$25,111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28,742.367247.2%34 W · 38 L+5.4wins+0.07per pick40cpaid-0.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8d61…3c32backed Yes15c52,775$7,726 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,726.361216.7%2 W · 10 L-2.0wins-0.17per pick34cpaid-34.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xdd8e…f023backed No68c51,622$35,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,422.061844.4%8 W · 10 L-2.0wins-0.11per pick55cpaid-3.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x12bf…ddafbacked No48c49,840$23,716 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,123.8915626.9%42 W · 114 L-10.6wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-38%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa2c9…2c23backed No73c47,312$34,703 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,609.07250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick72cpaid-31.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xecb1…5da3backed Yes16c47,216$7,540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,539.546134.4%21 W · 40 L-5.4wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-42%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7504…9c69backed Yes38c46,879$17,855 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,854.971450%7 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f42…b88fbacked No52c46,185$24,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,024.5636750.4%185 W · 182 L+39.6wins+0.11per pick40cpaid+26.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xea83…5c8fbacked No51c44,248$22,460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,788.866254.8%34 W · 28 L+7.5wins+0.12per pick43cpaid+31.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5e9c…cd75backed Yes12c43,744$5,411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,410.858617.4%15 W · 71 L-6.3wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-63.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x52b7…4597backed Yes48c43,680$20,853 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,852.8612654%68 W · 58 L+18.8wins+0.15per pick39cpaid+128.9%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0xdce2…774ebacked No52c43,216$22,472 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,743.681100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x738f…965fbacked Yes48c43,211$20,741 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,741.28250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-28.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed Yes40c41,406$16,418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,418.4731241.7%130 W · 182 L+15.4wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+66.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe8ff…c93bbacked No74c40,078$29,808 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,270.04944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.15per pick60cpaid-36.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0fda…5b87backed Yes49c39,997$19,464 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,463.867940.5%32 W · 47 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-18.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc4c4…6648backed Yes30c39,175$11,851 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,851.35560%3 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.18per pick42cpaid+21.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cac…0a0fbacked Yes24c34,800$8,486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,486.462850%14 W · 14 L+5.5wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+47.9%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x6d9f…9790backed No51c34,484$17,738 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,745.7835347%166 W · 187 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x088f…c9e7backed Yes46c33,923$15,513 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,513.498137%30 W · 51 L-9.2wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-31.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x4817…6bdbbacked No56c32,233$18,088 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,145.61666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+39.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4bbe…2cf3backed No43c31,348$13,380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,968.862653.8%14 W · 12 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a83…4c59backed No50c30,936$15,599 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,336.5342738.9%166 W · 261 L+30.7wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+8.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x799a…90b4backed Yes12c30,000$3,724 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,723.9330%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3257…eb53backed No49c29,823$14,613 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,209.731100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1864…f296backed Yes51c29,823$15,210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,209.7310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe3cb…56b5backed No50c29,380$14,591 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,788.482462.5%15 W · 9 L+5.1wins+0.21per pick41cpaid+22.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x7fe8…b7e4backed No58c29,252$16,938 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,314.051450%7 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-11.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ef0…f7e0backed Yes48c28,820$13,718 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,718.37742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x76b0…338abacked Yes18c28,227$5,083 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,083.35642.9%24 W · 32 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+13.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x090a…01b4backed Yes6c27,042$1,594 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,594.114650%23 W · 23 L+2.7wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6264…9937backed Yes43c25,458$11,049 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,048.6911350.4%57 W · 56 L+11.6wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+30.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x889e…09e0backed No43c25,354$10,818 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,535.544257.1%24 W · 18 L+4.8wins+0.12per pick46cpaid+34.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x614d…1546backed Yes60c25,000$14,972 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,972.1113850.7%70 W · 68 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf031…89b5backed Yes19c24,108$4,538 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,537.891421.4%3 W · 11 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick15cpaid-1.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x52f5…19dabacked Yes52c23,326$12,214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,214.1412245.9%56 W · 66 L+7.6wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+1.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6ffb…a834backed Yes5c20,466$1,063 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,062.669434%32 W · 62 L+7.7wins+0.08per pick26cpaid+10.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6aa7…e055backed Yes1c20,200$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.2520%1 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-56.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x00a6…9343backed Yes45c19,991$8,962 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,961.91520%3 W · 12 L-1.8wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-70.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x02a4…3b43backed Yes29c19,920$5,832 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,832.35520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick25cpaid+37.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb32…db85backed Yes34c18,558$6,302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,301.7134440.4%139 W · 205 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-15.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8890…79bdbacked No33c17,500$5,781 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,718.731741.2%7 W · 10 L+1.9wins+0.11per pick30cpaid+18.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x551e…b0e0backed Yes42c17,500$7,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,299.984126.8%11 W · 30 L-3.0wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-37.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb9cc…387abacked Yes52c17,301$8,944 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,944.216726.9%18 W · 49 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-27.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x249c…2783backed No43c17,072$7,407 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,664.821457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.6wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+17%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd44e…67e2backed No60c17,017$10,163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,853.6821259.9%127 W · 85 L+21.8wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+21.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe140…78d4backed No70c16,813$11,704 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,108.891060%6 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick57cpaid-7.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8cb6…099fbacked No38c16,377$6,244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,132.8366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick44cpaid+54.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe75f…edafbacked No36c15,315$5,532 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,782.732828.6%8 W · 20 L-2.7wins-0.10per pick38cpaid-35.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1d46…6233backed Yes27c14,998$4,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,049.53616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick26cpaid-71.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd602…0105backed Yes49c14,920$7,342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,342.12532%8 W · 17 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-28%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x008a…21a8backed No47c14,681$6,898 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,783.542259.1%13 W · 9 L+2.1wins+0.09per pick50cpaid-4.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x551b…dfd1backed Yes6c14,508$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$800714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick19cpaid-35.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0dd0…bc3dbacked No64c14,352$9,153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,199.191250%6 W · 6 L+1.6wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+23.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4d3e…58c7backed Yes51c14,148$7,165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,164.812213.6%3 W · 19 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick20cpaid-56.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4818…bf0bbacked Yes2c14,090$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.153622.2%8 W · 28 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-35.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4bc2…597abacked No53c14,031$7,494 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,537.6711728.2%33 W · 84 L-7.9wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-45.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa0bc…d428backed Yes41c13,801$5,664 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,664.3648630.5%148 W · 338 L+11.4wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x000d…758ebacked Yes61c13,598$8,292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,291.813135.5%11 W · 20 L-4.8wins-0.15per pick51cpaid-46.9%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0xa6a3…5532backed Yes35c13,577$4,766 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,766.3810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3914…b29abacked No54c13,571$7,364 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,206.551100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+84.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x482b…3266backed Yes38c12,623$4,791 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,791.183447.1%16 W · 18 L+2.9wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+17.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes48c12,561$5,970 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,970.468450%42 W · 42 L+5.4wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-9.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No74c12,465$9,232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,232.364339.3%253 W · 390 L-59.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf9b7…60a4backed No61c12,179$7,377 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,802.1722547.1%106 W · 119 L+9.5wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+25%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x335d…c9c3backed Yes51c11,579$5,962 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,962.443158.1%18 W · 13 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-9.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x34b1…bc54backed No41c11,538$4,675 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,862.372161.9%13 W · 8 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked Yes4c11,385$429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$428.715812.1%7 W · 51 L-5.7wins-0.10per pick22cpaid-72%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5a06…201bbacked Yes31c11,038$3,437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,436.58475%3 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.46per pick29cpaid+236.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed Yes47c10,853$5,065 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,064.535354.7%29 W · 24 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb747…b050backed No56c10,617$5,912 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,705.141931.6%6 W · 13 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-46.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9622…01efbacked Yes4c10,027$387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$386.682748.1%13 W · 14 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+29%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xce41…fa02backed Yes52c10,000$5,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,2001172.7%8 W · 3 L+2.0wins+0.18per pick55cpaid+71.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x030a…acfcbacked Yes44c9,826$4,331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,331.227337%27 W · 46 L+0.1wins0.00per pick37cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0cbf…4665backed Yes44c9,780$4,284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,284.366546.2%30 W · 35 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-4.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c87…9bd4backed Yes56c9,437$5,238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,238.483050%15 W · 15 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-14.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x768f…d08cbacked Yes23c9,341$2,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,120.42532%8 W · 17 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick29cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8fd9…544abacked No76c9,154$7,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,153.7425%1 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.31per pick56cpaid-67.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5950…8c48backed Yes44c9,132$4,048 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,047.912814.3%4 W · 24 L-4.4wins-0.16per pick30cpaid-69.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1e02…b56dbacked Yes13c8,926$1,118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1182626.9%7 W · 19 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-36.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84dd…8701backed Yes62c8,604$5,329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,329.013360.6%20 W · 13 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7bae…3a9bbacked No57c8,355$4,737 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,617.83728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-49%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4344…f90dbacked Yes53c8,306$4,387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,387.3712138.8%47 W · 74 L+11.3wins+0.09per pick29cpaid+24.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa020…d807backed Yes45c8,213$3,735 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,734.634119.5%8 W · 33 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-50.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.