Middle East · resolved market
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x052d57cb01437fefba9bef4c0fd06c4cd97acd628d193697bbd11f6c8bd62d68
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,106,878
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,641,020
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,106,878 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 1,537 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes | 35c | 449,520$156,938 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156,938.15 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cbb…89abbacked Yes | 40c | 191,595$76,439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76,438.92 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 36c | 169,550$61,594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61,593.61 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c72…dfb6backed No | 63c | 116,641$73,473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43,168.61 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked No | 46c | 108,974$49,747 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59,226.84 | 404 | 33.7%136 W · 268 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcd…fa31backed No | 74c | 98,195$72,345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25,850.25 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0261…94f1backed Yes | 67c | 82,731$55,430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55,429.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d56…2400backed No | 33c | 82,721$27,298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55,423.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +203%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05ff…6e4fbacked No | 56c | 72,356$40,519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31,836.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43c6…67c0backed Yes | 44c | 72,356$31,837 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31,836.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd46b…5dabbacked Yes | 62c | 65,500$40,666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40,665.57 | 167 | 43.7%73 W · 94 L | +11.9wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +21%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1dfb…02f0backed No | 57c | 59,045$33,656 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25,389.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa44c…c458backed Yes | 43c | 59,045$25,389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25,389.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62cf…5826backed No | 79c | 57,623$45,314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,308.71 | 62 | 62.9%39 W · 23 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea07…5ee8backed No | 32c | 57,078$18,265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38,813.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a56…3b4ebacked Yes | 68c | 57,078$38,813 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38,813.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…21bbbacked No | 47c | 53,853$25,111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28,742.36 | 72 | 47.2%34 W · 38 L | +5.4wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d61…3c32backed Yes | 15c | 52,775$7,726 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,726.36 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8e…f023backed No | 68c | 51,622$35,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,422.06 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12bf…ddafbacked No | 48c | 49,840$23,716 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26,123.89 | 156 | 26.9%42 W · 114 L | -10.6wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -38%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c9…2c23backed No | 73c | 47,312$34,703 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,609.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed Yes | 16c | 47,216$7,540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,539.54 | 61 | 34.4%21 W · 40 L | -5.4wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -42%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7504…9c69backed Yes | 38c | 46,879$17,855 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,854.97 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked No | 52c | 46,185$24,160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,024.56 | 367 | 50.4%185 W · 182 L | +39.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…5c8fbacked No | 51c | 44,248$22,460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,788.86 | 62 | 54.8%34 W · 28 L | +7.5wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9c…cd75backed Yes | 12c | 43,744$5,411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,410.85 | 86 | 17.4%15 W · 71 L | -6.3wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52b7…4597backed Yes | 48c | 43,680$20,853 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,852.86 | 126 | 54%68 W · 58 L | +18.8wins | +0.15per pick | 39cpaid | +128.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xdce2…774ebacked No | 52c | 43,216$22,472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,743.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x738f…965fbacked Yes | 48c | 43,211$20,741 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,741.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 40c | 41,406$16,418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,418.47 | 312 | 41.7%130 W · 182 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8ff…c93bbacked No | 74c | 40,078$29,808 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,270.04 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 60cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fda…5b87backed Yes | 49c | 39,997$19,464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,463.86 | 79 | 40.5%32 W · 47 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c4…6648backed Yes | 30c | 39,175$11,851 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,851.35 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cac…0a0fbacked Yes | 24c | 34,800$8,486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,486.46 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +5.5wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed No | 51c | 34,484$17,738 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,745.78 | 353 | 47%166 W · 187 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x088f…c9e7backed Yes | 46c | 33,923$15,513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,513.49 | 81 | 37%30 W · 51 L | -9.2wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4817…6bdbbacked No | 56c | 32,233$18,088 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,145.61 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbe…2cf3backed No | 43c | 31,348$13,380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,968.86 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed No | 50c | 30,936$15,599 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,336.53 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x799a…90b4backed Yes | 12c | 30,000$3,724 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,723.93 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3257…eb53backed No | 49c | 29,823$14,613 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,209.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1864…f296backed Yes | 51c | 29,823$15,210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,209.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3cb…56b5backed No | 50c | 29,380$14,591 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,788.48 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +5.1wins | +0.21per pick | 41cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe8…b7e4backed No | 58c | 29,252$16,938 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,314.05 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef0…f7e0backed Yes | 48c | 28,820$13,718 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,718.37 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76b0…338abacked Yes | 18c | 28,227$5,083 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,083.3 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…01b4backed Yes | 6c | 27,042$1,594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,594.11 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6264…9937backed Yes | 43c | 25,458$11,049 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,048.69 | 113 | 50.4%57 W · 56 L | +11.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x889e…09e0backed No | 43c | 25,354$10,818 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,535.54 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +4.8wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…1546backed Yes | 60c | 25,000$14,972 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,972.11 | 138 | 50.7%70 W · 68 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf031…89b5backed Yes | 19c | 24,108$4,538 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,537.89 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52f5…19dabacked Yes | 52c | 23,326$12,214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,214.14 | 122 | 45.9%56 W · 66 L | +7.6wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…a834backed Yes | 5c | 20,466$1,063 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,062.66 | 94 | 34%32 W · 62 L | +7.7wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa7…e055backed Yes | 1c | 20,200$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.2 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00a6…9343backed Yes | 45c | 19,991$8,962 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,961.9 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…3b43backed Yes | 29c | 19,920$5,832 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,832.35 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb32…db85backed Yes | 34c | 18,558$6,302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,301.71 | 344 | 40.4%139 W · 205 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8890…79bdbacked No | 33c | 17,500$5,781 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,718.73 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x551e…b0e0backed Yes | 42c | 17,500$7,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,299.98 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cc…387abacked Yes | 52c | 17,301$8,944 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,944.21 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x249c…2783backed No | 43c | 17,072$7,407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,664.82 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +17%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed No | 60c | 17,017$10,163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,853.68 | 212 | 59.9%127 W · 85 L | +21.8wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe140…78d4backed No | 70c | 16,813$11,704 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,108.89 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb6…099fbacked No | 38c | 16,377$6,244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,132.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe75f…edafbacked No | 36c | 15,315$5,532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,782.73 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d46…6233backed Yes | 27c | 14,998$4,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,049.53 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd602…0105backed Yes | 49c | 14,920$7,342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,342.1 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -28%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x008a…21a8backed No | 47c | 14,681$6,898 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,783.54 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x551b…dfd1backed Yes | 6c | 14,508$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd0…bc3dbacked No | 64c | 14,352$9,153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,199.19 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3e…58c7backed Yes | 51c | 14,148$7,165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,164.81 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…bf0bbacked Yes | 2c | 14,090$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.15 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bc2…597abacked No | 53c | 14,031$7,494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,537.67 | 117 | 28.2%33 W · 84 L | -7.9wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 41c | 13,801$5,664 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,664.36 | 486 | 30.5%148 W · 338 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x000d…758ebacked Yes | 61c | 13,598$8,292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,291.81 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -4.8wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a3…5532backed Yes | 35c | 13,577$4,766 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,766.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3914…b29abacked No | 54c | 13,571$7,364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,206.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +84.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x482b…3266backed Yes | 38c | 12,623$4,791 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,791.18 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 48c | 12,561$5,970 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,970.46 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 74c | 12,465$9,232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,232.3 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed No | 61c | 12,179$7,377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,802.17 | 225 | 47.1%106 W · 119 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +25%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x335d…c9c3backed Yes | 51c | 11,579$5,962 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,962.44 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34b1…bc54backed No | 41c | 11,538$4,675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,862.37 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 4c | 11,385$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428.71 | 58 | 12.1%7 W · 51 L | -5.7wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -72%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a06…201bbacked Yes | 31c | 11,038$3,437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,436.58 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.46per pick | 29cpaid | +236.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 47c | 10,853$5,065 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,064.53 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb747…b050backed No | 56c | 10,617$5,912 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,705.14 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9622…01efbacked Yes | 4c | 10,027$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.68 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +29%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce41…fa02backed Yes | 52c | 10,000$5,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,200 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.18per pick | 55cpaid | +71.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x030a…acfcbacked Yes | 44c | 9,826$4,331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,331.22 | 73 | 37%27 W · 46 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbf…4665backed Yes | 44c | 9,780$4,284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,284.36 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c87…9bd4backed Yes | 56c | 9,437$5,238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,238.48 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…d08cbacked Yes | 23c | 9,341$2,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,120.4 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fd9…544abacked No | 76c | 9,154$7,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,153.7 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5950…8c48backed Yes | 44c | 9,132$4,048 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,047.91 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -4.4wins | -0.16per pick | 30cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1e02…b56dbacked Yes | 13c | 8,926$1,118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,118 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84dd…8701backed Yes | 62c | 8,604$5,329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,329.01 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bae…3a9bbacked No | 57c | 8,355$4,737 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,617.83 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -49%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…f90dbacked Yes | 53c | 8,306$4,387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,387.37 | 121 | 38.8%47 W · 74 L | +11.3wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa020…d807backed Yes | 45c | 8,213$3,735 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,734.63 | 41 | 19.5%8 W · 33 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.