TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will Trump publicly disparage Elon before July?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$501,105
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$523,827

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $501,105 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 306 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6b3d…76ddbacked No0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-72.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9166…2f52backed No0c57,988$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f7b…154bbacked No0c13,410$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.412839.3%11 W · 17 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick33cpaid-32.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7327…151abacked No32c11,175$3,589 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,58930%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed No9c9,347$856 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$855.745635.7%20 W · 36 L-3.7wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-36.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed Yes79c7,568$5,957 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,610.371560%9 W · 6 L+1.4wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+18.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd1ac…08d5backed Yes69c7,283$5,012 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,270.48560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick46cpaid-20%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf1f9…1245backed Yes72c7,081$5,086 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,994.294151.2%21 W · 20 L+2.1wins+0.05per pick46cpaid-7.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd90a…d094backed No29c6,770$1,986 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,986.1310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd632…8afbbacked No0c6,600$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.23935.9%14 W · 25 L+3.9wins+0.10per pick26cpaid+94.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x84fd…2f81backed No1c5,370$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.82450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3d3…d424backed Yes19c5,000$973 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,027.44250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick23cpaid+157.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x134a…9e42backed No44c4,899$2,177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,177.192330.4%7 W · 16 L-2.9wins-0.13per pick43cpaid-46%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x28de…a1fdbacked Yes27c4,428$1,211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,216.88922.2%2 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.12per pick10cpaid-3.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1787…a1fabacked No8c4,071$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+10.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb953…16ccbacked Yes20c3,874$793 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,080.54366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.34per pick33cpaid+177.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2154…715cbacked No27c3,333$911 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$910.96333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-52.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x63b1…1676backed No27c3,250$881 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$881850%4 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x62e8…c7f6backed No78c3,158$2,451 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,450.511346.2%6 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid+20.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a14…d748backed No29c2,994$864 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$864.462040%8 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-32.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x820b…f7f4backed No4c2,816$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.381145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.8wins+0.16per pick29cpaid+111.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb481…bb2cbacked Yes42c2,673$1,134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,538.451040%4 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-34.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbacc…e985backed Yes25c2,500$627 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,872.591100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.75per pick25cpaid+298.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdf7e…d472backed Yes40c2,269$912 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,356.63633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-34.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked No33c2,209$735 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$735.33836.8%14 W · 24 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-27.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5a61…1787backed No23c2,011$455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb1fe…423abacked No6c2,000$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11010723.4%25 W · 82 L+0.3wins0.00per pick23cpaid-11.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8795…7544backed Yes76c2,000$1,520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4801361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick53cpaid-12.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b6f…8afbbacked No70c2,000$1,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,399.9930%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6bab…1292backed Yes76c1,997$1,518 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$479.162763%17 W · 10 L+6.3wins+0.23per pick40cpaid+111.3%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x63c3…2783backed Yes26c1,981$524 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,456.39250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick23cpaid+88.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd602…0105backed Yes78c1,914$1,494 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$419.541100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x551e…b0e0backed Yes12c1,893$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,659.84922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick31cpaid+11.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f86…54d6backed Yes17c1,800$306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,4941233.3%4 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid+7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f7a…5015backed Yes31c1,764$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,214.441100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.69per pick31cpaid+221%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb59…0a22backed Yes73c1,752$1,278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$473.491861.1%11 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick57cpaid-12.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa59c…bb62backed Yes39c1,677$648 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,028.91450%7 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-19.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6245…d3c0backed No79c1,578$1,254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,254.09875%6 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick69cpaid+24.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x540f…14c3backed No72c1,576$1,134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,133.9710%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0c97…1b68backed No13c1,525$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.213933.3%13 W · 26 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-42.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No2c1,522$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.351,3636.8%93 W · 1,270 L-20.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-59.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xce8f…4400backed Yes29c1,500$435 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,065837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed No49c1,454$709 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$709.1611850%59 W · 59 L+12.9wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+16.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7670…5204backed Yes17c1,454$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,203.58250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick13cpaid+190.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0562…9d66backed Yes16c1,407$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,179.357540%30 W · 45 L+5.6wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+14.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5091…23e9backed No45c1,400$630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$630.011216.7%2 W · 10 L-2.6wins-0.21per pick38cpaid-47.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6779…0400backed Yes22c1,350$293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,056.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.78per pick22cpaid+361%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7fa7…37fbbacked Yes28c1,341$376 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$965.48540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x662c…bfe7backed No75c1,333$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0001145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-38.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1955…aef1backed Yes71c1,302$921 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$381.191643.8%7 W · 9 L+2.5wins+0.15per pick28cpaid+166.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6df6…8458backed No49c1,282$626 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$625.723844.7%17 W · 21 L+4.5wins+0.12per pick33cpaid+105.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8756…b36cbacked No43c1,279$555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$554.9240%0 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xfa32…bd9abacked No25c1,257$319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.262548%12 W · 13 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick41cpaid-3.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0716…f036backed Yes24c1,245$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$945.46425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No69c1,199$828 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$827.8125731.5%81 W · 176 L-14.6wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-32.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc1b3…501cbacked Yes49c1,157$565 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$591.94666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.26per pick40cpaid+17.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xad7b…63dabacked No78c1,132$885 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$884.57333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.22per pick55cpaid-48.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4956…e2c7backed No29c1,095$317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$317.4510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe3ce…54a5backed No77c1,088$838 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$838.03825%2 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-54.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3b7b…f74ebacked No74c1,081$795 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$794.52580%4 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick69cpaid+21%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6dd6…f5f4backed No61c1,071$655 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$655.48425%1 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.33per pick58cpaid-68.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x659c…8dfcbacked Yes57c1,068$605 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$462.36785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.24per pick62cpaid+43.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc3da…f328backed Yes29c1,058$306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$752.48540%2 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.22per pick18cpaid+45.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf0ed…47d8backed No24c1,056$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2506434.4%22 W · 42 L+5.3wins+0.08per pick26cpaid+100.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes10c1,000$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9001502.7%4 W · 146 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-49.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe6fd…8bc3backed Yes21c1,000$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7901323.1%3 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-29.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d0a…4dc6backed No15c1,000$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x218f…7ef2backed No13c1,000$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.15per pick29cpaid-76.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbb9…20cabacked Yes26c958.4$253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$705.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.74per pick26cpaid+279.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No75c934.1$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$699.9572935.5%259 W · 470 L-57.8wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-26.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb78e…30e3backed Yes34c924.86$313 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$612.19366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.34per pick33cpaid+57.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3d85…19cfbacked Yes70c900$626 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$274560%3 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.25per pick35cpaid+757.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x66e6…4e5bbacked No24c845.36$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c87…9bd4backed No72c705.02$511 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$510.7757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick63cpaid-12.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x830e…7099backed Yes33c696.31$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$464.36333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick24cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x88b6…3cffbacked Yes18c689$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$561.654353.5%23 W · 20 L+4.4wins+0.10per pick43cpaid+10.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x45cc…6400backed No72c683.77$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$490.15650%3 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-29.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0362…9661backed Yes75c659.66$493 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.54837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-35.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa493…612ebacked No31c645.32$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20040%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x75bb…0ac5backed Yes29c629.09$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$444.5333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick24cpaid+13.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x66c1…2c72backed Yes25c600$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4526734.3%23 W · 44 L+10.3wins+0.15per pick19cpaid+67.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes29c599.99$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42645738.9%178 W · 279 L-31.3wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-3.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x45d9…f84bbacked No27c599.26$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xffb0…fa37backed No35c596$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.08650%3 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+24.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe6a8…00c7backed No49c553.7$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.86922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.1wins-0.23per pick46cpaid-52.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe732…898fbacked Yes29c551$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$391.089041.1%37 W · 53 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick38cpaid-16.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb569…1ad5backed Yes28c538.47$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$387.72100%2 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.76per pick24cpaid+335.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa862…46e2backed No4c531.69$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.5633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-11.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xed4f…e25abacked Yes33c520.92$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$351.111100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.67per pick33cpaid+206.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa9b4…70d5backed No22c506.4$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.41250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-22.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes27c500.17$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$366.9440712.3%50 W · 357 L-35.7wins-0.09per pick21cpaid-48.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x502b…a1d5backed Yes28c500$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3602733.3%9 W · 18 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-13.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9def…d1a5backed No68c500$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3401216.7%2 W · 10 L-2.6wins-0.21per pick38cpaid-74.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0370…d000backed No73c500$365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$365333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.29per pick62cpaid-50.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2a68…57c2backed No78c500$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39010%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0484…a23ebacked No72c499.98$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$359.991250%6 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-8.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x88b0…b118backed No76c457.63$348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$347.753935.9%14 W · 25 L-3.9wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-29.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xcdb8…e969backed No7c450.2$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e7a…53a3backed Yes32c447.37$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$303.74250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+55.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x961a…73acbacked Yes26c439.95$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3264641.3%19 W · 27 L+3.6wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+13.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.