Commodities · resolved market
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcab77c44e435400dba6d3ab41eaef2a504bebd7e2d080ec18d14cf45ddf41784
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,053,922
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,006,958
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,053,922 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 1,545 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9648…6825backed Yes | 9c | 111,280$10,071 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,070.89 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25db…28debacked Yes | 14c | 69,107$9,799 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,799.02 | 93 | 17.2%16 W · 77 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf19…6402backed Yes | 20c | 65,650$13,091 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,091.31 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 25c | 57,177$14,198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,198.41 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbad…9c95backed No | 64c | 37,126$23,665 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,461.16 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54a7…881bbacked No | 74c | 30,137$22,403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,733.15 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -5.8wins | -0.22per pick | 61cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…d748backed No | 66c | 30,000$19,734 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,266.49 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35bb…009bbacked No | 71c | 27,375$19,322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,052.95 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0251…50f3backed Yes | 26c | 21,165$5,399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,399.04 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed Yes | 36c | 18,771$6,759 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,759.16 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x188e…70d8backed No | 75c | 18,680$14,072 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,607.89 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd814…7f65backed Yes | 25c | 17,859$4,386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,386.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3869…0e3cbacked Yes | 9c | 17,778$1,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,600 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa125…7cdfbacked Yes | 31c | 17,000$5,355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,354.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa241…45f7backed Yes | 30c | 16,852$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 20c | 16,331$3,282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,281.89 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab19…4876backed Yes | 24c | 16,128$3,929 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,928.63 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c72…dfb6backed No | 65c | 14,500$9,425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,074.91 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +3.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeafc…0d5cbacked Yes | 30c | 14,260$4,330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,329.87 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe747…e9c3backed Yes | 18c | 14,176$2,512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,511.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Yes | 26c | 14,062$3,718 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,717.52 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c8a…e62abacked No | 75c | 13,857$10,393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,463.96 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +59.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd64e…5516backed No | 77c | 13,613$10,534 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,078.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3db…0f98backed Yes | 31c | 13,453$4,204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,204.5 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc722…1334backed Yes | 33c | 13,021$4,352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,351.62 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +145.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bdf…3a38backed Yes | 38c | 12,679$4,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,800 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x020f…de5ebacked Yes | 28c | 12,512$3,498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,497.98 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1b2…a321backed No | 79c | 12,225$9,714 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,511.08 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -4.9wins | -0.22per pick | 49cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd3…e662backed Yes | 10c | 11,933$1,202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,202.03 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +4.3wins | +0.20per pick | 27cpaid | +67.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8a31…cfc7backed Yes | 18c | 11,546$2,078 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,078.35 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81e0…2c3bbacked Yes | 9c | 11,267$1,056 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,055.89 | 70 | 11.4%8 W · 62 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 11c | 10,719$1,139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,139.02 | 94 | 8.5%8 W · 86 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2120…2647backed No | 75c | 10,050$7,511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,539.13 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8597…daeebacked No | 78c | 10,022$7,846 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,175.93 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x436f…2c7fbacked No | 67c | 9,836$6,549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,286.94 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6a…f9d0backed Yes | 34c | 9,494$3,237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,237.42 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf900…cd0cbacked No | 66c | 8,896$5,839 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,056.86 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7420…26e2backed No | 65c | 8,817$5,699 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,117.06 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 22c | 8,635$1,868 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,868.1 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb41b…0d99backed Yes | 12c | 8,333$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b15…9260backed Yes | 34c | 8,000$2,720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,720 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked Yes | 4c | 7,789$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 48 | 8.3%4 W · 44 L | -5.7wins | -0.12per pick | 20cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x97f3…0ebabacked Yes | 33c | 7,667$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -4.6wins | -0.30per pick | 44cpaid | -80.7%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x31c5…ede4backed Yes | 20c | 7,655$1,531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,530.97 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.23per pick | 39cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed Yes | 13c | 7,600$951 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$951.12 | 87 | 34.5%30 W · 57 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9488…d531backed Yes | 2c | 7,449$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.88 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8f…b920backed Yes | 32c | 7,446$2,410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,410 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +71.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3c…5eeabacked No | 76c | 7,439$5,687 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,751.95 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 38cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf041…dde5backed No | 75c | 7,167$5,369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,798.41 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…9871backed Yes | 22c | 7,000$1,550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,549.99 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbe61…4665backed No | 61c | 6,863$4,186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,676.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fab…ea04backed Yes | 35c | 6,840$2,382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,382.12 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +185.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14a3…7f65backed No | 66c | 6,762$4,481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,281.73 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b2c…a9f3backed Yes | 34c | 6,714$2,283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,282.88 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +3.2wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +214.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 4c | 6,500$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.33 | 51 | 15.7%8 W · 43 L | -5.2wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed No | 68c | 6,500$4,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,100.38 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xadd1…a4a3backed No | 64c | 6,214$3,981 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,233.4 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x401e…6fc9backed Yes | 24c | 6,177$1,487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,486.9 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -4.0wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -58%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked Yes | 20c | 6,032$1,206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,205.62 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 69c | 5,849$4,016 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,833.19 | 107 | 39.3%42 W · 65 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb91…b665backed Yes | 36c | 5,474$1,994 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,993.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4884…1310backed Yes | 26c | 5,367$1,389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,389.29 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe3…73c4backed No | 63c | 5,238$3,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,938.12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ed…9374backed No | 70c | 5,195$3,651 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,544.24 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 66cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 11c | 5,066$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550.2 | 99 | 14.1%14 W · 85 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 29c | 5,047$1,486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,485.54 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5973…5e13backed Yes | 33c | 5,000$1,650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,650 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x689c…9f87backed Yes | 13c | 4,970$669 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$668.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd67b…5780backed No | 66c | 4,956$3,277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,678.52 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6ea…b02abacked Yes | 34c | 4,946$1,706 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,706.04 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x425f…5493backed Yes | 31c | 4,879$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes | 13c | 4,800$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$619.64 | 117 | 34.2%40 W · 77 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -26%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 1c | 4,654$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.62 | 120 | 11.7%14 W · 106 L | +7.5wins | +0.06per pick | 5cpaid | +178.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfcb…63efbacked No | 65c | 4,581$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,581.34 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.7wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +199.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x449c…879ebacked No | 71c | 4,506$3,198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,307.43 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92e5…efeebacked Yes | 34c | 4,444$1,522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,522.05 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8200…477ebacked Yes | 37c | 4,416$1,630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,630.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0753…c6aabacked Yes | 19c | 4,308$823 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$823.05 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | +61.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked Yes | 36c | 4,075$1,467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,467.02 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.21per pick | 44cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 27c | 4,073$1,099 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,099.34 | 307 | 18.6%57 W · 250 L | -17.8wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -34%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e78…9a48backed Yes | 2c | 4,064$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +57.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…0fe5backed No | 63c | 4,062$2,559 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,503.02 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.24per pick | 69cpaid | -39%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e6…1dc2backed No | 68c | 4,000$2,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,300 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa294…6c81backed Yes | 37c | 4,000$1,490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,489.98 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa2…3170backed No | 77c | 4,000$3,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$899.99 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf60…a6f5backed Yes | 38c | 3,947$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes | 20c | 3,902$780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$780.4 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca6…73e3backed Yes | 30c | 3,900$1,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,150.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc8…d197backed Yes | 37c | 3,805$1,419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,418.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefb3…02bfbacked No | 64c | 3,795$2,437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,358.29 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.9wins | +0.21per pick | 43cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4581…3b7dbacked Yes | 35c | 3,718$1,296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,295.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked Yes | 26c | 3,709$954 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$954.47 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +526.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5fb…db5cbacked No | 66c | 3,705$2,441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,264.16 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4823…9448backed Yes | 17c | 3,693$625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$624.73 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf40f…c3bcbacked No | 64c | 3,662$2,333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,329.39 | 117 | 36.8%43 W · 74 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7c6…1434backed Yes | 14c | 3,626$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd30f…19b9backed Yes | 39c | 3,611$1,392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,392 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb5…cabdbacked Yes | 36c | 3,590$1,308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,307.65 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23eb…48d8backed Yes | 7c | 3,571$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 67c | 3,413$2,290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,122.89 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31?this page
- US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 15?No won
- US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.