Commodities · resolved market

US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 15?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9e570fa9b5258f954859874e92e2de4be636f377d9968150915670d9bac09100

Rebuilt 17 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Apr 16, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $1,044,283
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $1,049,221

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,044,283 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 314 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Commodities
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x9648…6825backed Yes	7c	96,663$6,367 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,366.69	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	-0.9wins	-0.08per pick	35cpaid	-46.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes	11c	55,132$6,298 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,298.45	117	34.2%40 W · 77 L	+2.4wins	+0.02per pick	32cpaid	-26%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb41b…0d99backed Yes	9c	53,822$4,921 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,920.73	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x907d…20c4backed Yes	0c	19,298$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.67	23	0%0 W · 23 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1d16…e798backed Yes	9c	18,173$1,593 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,592.72	14	0%0 W · 14 L	-1.1wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7fd3…e662backed Yes	4c	16,726$751 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$750.99	21	47.6%10 W · 11 L	+4.3wins	+0.20per pick	27cpaid	+67.5%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xab19…4876backed Yes	5c	13,074$656 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$656.19	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-1.0wins	-0.12per pick	37cpaid	-67.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xde7b…5f4bbacked Yes	7c	13,037$944 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$943.9	12	8.3%1 W · 11 L	-2.4wins	-0.20per pick	28cpaid	-89.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0251…50f3backed Yes	19c	11,454$2,140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,139.73	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.9wins	-0.28per pick	28cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0873…09e8backed Yes	0c	10,110$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.11	8	0%0 W · 8 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5973…5e13backed Yes	10c	9,279$926 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$925.59	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	25cpaid	-51.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8eac…e9e1backed Yes	7c	8,331$563 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$562.95	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed Yes	8c	7,804$586 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$585.67	59	16.9%10 W · 49 L	+1.0wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	-42.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e5e…bf98backed Yes	11c	7,434$830 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$830	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb22…808abacked Yes	14c	7,247$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$999.99	51	15.7%8 W · 43 L	-5.2wins	-0.10per pick	26cpaid	-11.2%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4884…1310backed Yes	14c	7,041$994 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$993.6	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-1.0wins	-0.26per pick	26cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4a2b…af20backed Yes	8c	7,000$553 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$553	55	27.3%15 W · 40 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	27cpaid	-33.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes	9c	6,947$641 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$640.64	28	25%7 W · 21 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-38.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	7c	6,744$443 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$443.3	232	4.3%10 W · 222 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-13.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed Yes	10c	6,352$604 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$603.7	77	23.4%18 W · 59 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-11.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x81e0…2c3bbacked Yes	9c	4,567$420 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$419.98	70	11.4%8 W · 62 L	-4.1wins	-0.06per pick	17cpaid	-61.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x547b…5b36backed Yes	5c	4,450$241 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$241.3	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6992…6c1dbacked Yes	12c	4,178$493 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$493.31	63	25.4%16 W · 47 L	-1.0wins	-0.02per pick	27cpaid	-28.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes	14c	3,567$496 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$495.69	22	27.3%6 W · 16 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	30cpaid	-53.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe98e…a597backed Yes	5c	3,548$177 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$177.34	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	-0.5wins	-0.04per pick	27cpaid	-36%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9269…53fdbacked Yes	6c	3,443$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0482…6b0abacked Yes	16c	3,047$501 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$501	48	8.3%4 W · 44 L	-5.7wins	-0.12per pick	20cpaid	-75.7%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2078…bc90backed Yes	13c	2,964$382 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$381.56	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-2.2wins	-0.37per pick	37cpaid	-100%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x34ab…3eb5backed Yes	15c	2,768$415 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$415.27	53	24.5%13 W · 40 L	-2.5wins	-0.05per pick	29cpaid	-43.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x49c2…466ebacked Yes	18c	2,716$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.24per pick	24cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ee0…1006backed Yes	6c	2,596$165 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$165.24	11	0%0 W · 11 L	-1.3wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xff7c…b233backed Yes	6c	2,553$153 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$153.2	320	23.4%75 W · 245 L	-4.9wins	-0.02per pick	25cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x72f7…92f7backed Yes	22c	2,077$456 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$456.16	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd2a8…5c27backed Yes	5c	2,051$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.7wins	-0.18per pick	18cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x827d…13debacked Yes	5c	2,000$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-1.3wins	-0.14per pick	25cpaid	-80.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdbe4…9bcfbacked Yes	16c	2,000$320 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$320	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x13b3…7552backed Yes	11c	2,000$214 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$214	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.22per pick	22cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x78a6…5f19backed Yes	4c	1,926$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.94	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	36cpaid	-37.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1c85…31d4backed Yes	8c	1,900$158 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$158	21	19%4 W · 17 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	20cpaid	-24%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb89f…1c44backed Yes	8c	1,864$152 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$151.8	23	21.7%5 W · 18 L	-1.2wins	-0.05per pick	27cpaid	-65.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xef8e…7465backed Yes	17c	1,852$315 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$314.79	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-1.2wins	-0.17per pick	46cpaid	-40.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2ab0…95fbbacked Yes	15c	1,801$277 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$276.85	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6aca…31f2backed Yes	11c	1,789$205 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$205.25	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	+14.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xad52…11acbacked Yes	7c	1,762$121 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120.56	99	14.1%14 W · 85 L	-1.5wins	-0.02per pick	16cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x802d…e5babacked Yes	16c	1,750$280 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$280	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.8wins	-0.20per pick	20cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xedc2…ad9fbacked Yes	10c	1,733$181 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$181.44	19	31.6%6 W · 13 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	34cpaid	-36.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a74…d69ebacked No	75c	1,725$1,290 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$434.69	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+0.6wins	+0.13per pick	47cpaid	-10%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x943c…1d17backed Yes	32c	1,722$548 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$548.17	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	-3.9wins	-0.30per pick	53cpaid	-64.4%equal weight	38-0.10 edge/pick
0xabfb…12e5backed Yes	9c	1,611$142 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$141.92	49	14.3%7 W · 42 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7a63…b4efbacked Yes	8c	1,571$122 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$121.53	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-1.1wins	-0.19per pick	19cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4133…ea5dbacked Yes	8c	1,450$114 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$113.87	6	50%3 W · 3 L	+1.1wins	+0.19per pick	31cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed Yes	9c	1,368$123 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$122.62	210	15.7%33 W · 177 L	-2.6wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-36.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8260…a14bbacked Yes	15c	1,355$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a30…b1e2backed Yes	5c	1,292$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.6	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x238f…3015backed Yes	9c	1,271$117 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$116.67	84	0%0 W · 84 L	-4.2wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x80c0…ed95backed Yes	8c	1,238$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4478…02a4backed Yes	17c	1,200$202 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$202.4	87	34.5%30 W · 57 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	35cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe5f7…6f09backed Yes	4c	1,192$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.2	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes	10c	1,150$114 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$114.03	212	28.8%61 W · 151 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-32.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x024b…435abacked Yes	4c	1,136$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	5	20%1 W · 4 L	+0.6wins	+0.11per pick	9cpaid	+17.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	7c	1,077$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.01	91	2.2%2 W · 89 L	-2.7wins	-0.03per pick	5cpaid	-72.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a79…304fbacked Yes	13c	1,039$137 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$137.01	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-0.9wins	-0.13per pick	27cpaid	-59.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b20…68bdbacked Yes	8c	1,004$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2f45…ab6abacked Yes	14c	1,000$137 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$136.65	24	25%6 W · 18 L	-2.6wins	-0.11per pick	36cpaid	-65.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa0bb…2a16backed Yes	6c	1,000$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.69	21	9.5%2 W · 19 L	-1.8wins	-0.09per pick	18cpaid	-50.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2dc3…19e0backed Yes	10c	1,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.2wins	+0.09per pick	41cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9def…d1a5backed Yes	10c	1,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	73	35.6%26 W · 47 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	34cpaid	-25.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde0d…b6cabacked Yes	7c	1,000$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68	17	29.4%5 W · 12 L	-0.9wins	-0.05per pick	35cpaid	-44.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c76…06acbacked Yes	2c	999.99$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	8	62.5%5 W · 3 L	+2.5wins	+0.32per pick	31cpaid	+76%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x287b…d131backed Yes	9c	999.98$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e50…cde3backed Yes	8c	980.18$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.71	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x21ce…3ffcbacked Yes	7c	977.13$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.12	8	62.5%5 W · 3 L	+0.8wins	+0.09per pick	53cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x41b0…26a7backed Yes	11c	900$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.06per pick	31cpaid	-43.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x493c…953ebacked Yes	6c	900$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.94	36	44.4%16 W · 20 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3334…69b0backed Yes	19c	894.32$167 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$166.86	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.24per pick	24cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb2c6…2e24backed Yes	6c	882.93$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xeffc…a9c6backed Yes	4c	851.56$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.32	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x837a…77e1backed Yes	9c	838.67$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.48	15	6.7%1 W · 14 L	-1.5wins	-0.10per pick	17cpaid	-64.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5db5…45a3backed Yes	5c	838$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.9	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.5wins	+0.16per pick	17cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x57b0…76f4backed Yes	10c	818.15$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.38	27	44.4%12 W · 15 L	+2.9wins	+0.11per pick	34cpaid	-18.9%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x69c9…3b29backed Yes	13c	801.86$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105	14	21.4%3 W · 11 L	-1.6wins	-0.12per pick	33cpaid	-70.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc4d6…966bbacked Yes	8c	777$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.94	29	10.3%3 W · 26 L	-0.8wins	-0.03per pick	13cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b9d…8201backed No	79c	760$600 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$160.46	38	47.4%18 W · 20 L	+2.1wins	+0.06per pick	42cpaid	+96.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes	8c	754.15$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.22	96	16.7%16 W · 80 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	16cpaid	-35.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes	2c	750$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	120	11.7%14 W · 106 L	+7.5wins	+0.06per pick	5cpaid	+178.2%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa6ea…b02abacked Yes	8c	725$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.62	16	18.8%3 W · 13 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	20cpaid	-55.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0d1b…e56dbacked Yes	4c	723.4$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	+0.7wins	+0.09per pick	19cpaid	+36%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x24d0…256cbacked Yes	4c	722.48$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.9wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d0e…9818backed Yes	15c	720$109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109.2	5	20%1 W · 4 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	19cpaid	-58.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x74e2…ea6dbacked Yes	12c	716.15$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.21	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.6wins	+0.21per pick	46cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd0b9…74d8backed Yes	7c	708.72$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.72	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-1.5wins	-0.24per pick	41cpaid	-76.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x315c…f9e2backed Yes	16c	691.81$114 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$114.11	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes	6c	681.73$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.66	66	4.5%3 W · 63 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-60.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xff53…6963backed Yes	5c	681$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.48	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x23e3…0f3abacked Yes	4c	679.9$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.16	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5485…402dbacked Yes	3c	671.89$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.04	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5874…6b11backed Yes	5c	645.54$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.5	23	26.1%6 W · 17 L	-2.3wins	-0.10per pick	36cpaid	-54.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcc49…c675backed Yes	6c	643.27$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.47	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.4wins	+0.14per pick	19cpaid	+138.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x32d1…b949backed Yes	9c	631$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.68	23	4.3%1 W · 22 L	-3.0wins	-0.13per pick	17cpaid	-90.7%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf99d…ceb5backed Yes	6c	618.71$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 15?this page
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?No won
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31?No won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 15?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event