Commodities · resolved market
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x01ffd0acf0d6e42558a7cbd521efde937166a1bf09f3a2dfcdf36950c2dd3635
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,094,485
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,171,562
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,094,485 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 860 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9648…6825backed Yes | 25c | 86,161$21,379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,379.02 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7420…26e2backed No | 73c | 42,701$30,999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,702.21 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes | 18c | 36,446$6,420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,420.48 | 117 | 34.2%40 W · 77 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -26%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf39…3101backed No | 79c | 20,396$16,029 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,366.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb41b…0d99backed Yes | 28c | 19,728$5,449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,449.41 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c55…dbb9backed Yes | 23c | 18,955$4,282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,282.06 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +3.9wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5011…220ebacked No | 78c | 16,000$12,455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,544.99 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ebf…5bfabacked No | 78c | 15,962$12,398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,563.81 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x162f…798dbacked No | 80c | 14,373$11,452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,920.84 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.16per pick | 40cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6992…6c1dbacked Yes | 10c | 12,220$1,227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,226.6 | 63 | 25.4%16 W · 47 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c17…a1e6backed Yes | 18c | 12,172$2,191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,190.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd936…5098backed Yes | 30c | 12,172$3,652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,651.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeafc…0d5cbacked Yes | 7c | 12,035$852 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$852.06 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6a…f9d0backed Yes | 38c | 10,543$4,054 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,054.09 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0251…50f3backed Yes | 41c | 10,450$4,282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,281.68 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadd1…a4a3backed No | 53c | 10,014$5,309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,705.11 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c85…31d4backed Yes | 9c | 9,553$886 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$886.34 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -24%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 27c | 9,429$2,533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,532.61 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e31…454dbacked Yes | 25c | 8,966$2,206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,206.29 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf19…6402backed Yes | 37c | 8,546$3,157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,156.93 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67f9…d241backed Yes | 21c | 8,520$1,785 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,785.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a89…8e52backed Yes | 33c | 8,494$2,804 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,804.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab19…4876backed No | 77c | 8,481$6,551 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,929.7 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa241…45f7backed Yes | 28c | 8,420$2,380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,380.18 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 79c | 8,199$6,455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,743.6 | 56 | 62.5%35 W · 21 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5060…a780backed No | 78c | 7,798$6,048 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,749.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf041…dde5backed No | 77c | 7,586$5,862 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,724.15 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x525e…3803backed No | 70c | 7,551$5,286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,265.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed No | 80c | 7,337$5,863 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,474.29 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x33c1…e8b3backed Yes | 8c | 7,200$602 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$602 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 19c | 7,019$1,299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,298.84 | 50 | 18%9 W · 41 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f2…e5fabacked No | 80c | 6,996$5,597 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,399.55 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x425f…5493backed Yes | 30c | 6,560$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74bf…2a6ebacked No | 78c | 6,139$4,788 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,350.58 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 71cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecd…0787backed No | 78c | 6,105$4,756 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,348.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 1c | 5,777$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.07 | 99 | 14.1%14 W · 85 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 60c | 5,332$3,197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,134.78 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +6.7wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbf96…9942backed No | 79c | 5,320$4,199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,121.29 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 29c | 5,241$1,525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,525 | 51 | 15.7%8 W · 43 L | -5.2wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c5…6f9cbacked Yes | 8c | 5,079$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +3.5wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +113%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ca…1705backed No | 79c | 5,000$3,950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,050 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked Yes | 14c | 5,000$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 97 | 45.4%44 W · 53 L | +5.9wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43f2…09a5backed Yes | 43c | 4,673$2,026 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,025.65 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb145…0625backed No | 70c | 4,621$3,235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,386.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca1…13b5backed No | 73c | 4,500$3,295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,205 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x943c…1d17backed No | 65c | 4,500$2,915 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,584.95 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.9wins | -0.30per pick | 53cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0b9d…8201backed No | 63c | 4,422$2,798 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,623.99 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e5e…bf98backed Yes | 23c | 4,357$983 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$983.46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 72c | 3,996$2,889 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,106.98 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | +9.2wins | +0.15per pick | 32cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3732…43acbacked No | 76c | 3,898$2,947 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$951.72 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x288e…17d1backed No | 75c | 3,808$2,838 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$970.48 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 15c | 3,708$565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$564.73 | 59 | 16.9%10 W · 49 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 24c | 3,505$848 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$847.6 | 308 | 39.6%122 W · 186 L | -17.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f1…c4bdbacked No | 78c | 3,370$2,627 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$743.55 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bfc…f43dbacked Yes | 40c | 3,200$1,280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,280 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd2…0bd8backed No | 60c | 3,196$1,914 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,282.41 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 44c | 3,162$1,391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,770.72 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +4.4wins | +0.40per pick | 24cpaid | +133.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked No | 73c | 3,144$2,309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$834.94 | 148 | 49.3%73 W · 75 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2078…bc90backed Yes | 33c | 3,012$989 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$989.22 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8df9…468cbacked Yes | 1c | 3,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd054…7e38backed No | 73c | 3,000$2,190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$810 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 64cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2120…2647backed No | 52c | 3,000$1,554 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,446.14 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed Yes | 19c | 3,000$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcca9…4c9fbacked No | 57c | 3,000$1,712 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,287.59 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +3.8wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7a63…b4efbacked Yes | 19c | 2,919$546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$545.75 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1163…8ec4backed Yes | 35c | 2,896$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5715…1616backed Yes | 7c | 2,857$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29d3…b2edbacked No | 75c | 2,851$2,150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$701.11 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63f1…6272backed Yes | 6c | 2,750$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.75 | 116 | 28.4%33 W · 83 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51e3…edc7backed No | 63c | 2,725$1,715 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,009.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35bb…009bbacked No | 71c | 2,693$1,914 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$778.81 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked No | 59c | 2,600$1,539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,060.78 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +5.5wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf27d…e6d3backed No | 49c | 2,558$1,264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,293.62 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57b0…76f4backed No | 74c | 2,400$1,781 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$618.99 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked Yes | 16c | 2,391$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.48 | 48 | 8.3%4 W · 44 L | -5.7wins | -0.12per pick | 20cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1555…7d82backed Yes | 2c | 2,381$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6430…fb2fbacked Yes | 19c | 2,375$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451.79 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x233b…1f2cbacked Yes | 11c | 2,366$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81e0…2c3bbacked Yes | 29c | 2,310$670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$669.55 | 70 | 11.4%8 W · 62 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09a5…caaabacked No | 78c | 2,298$1,792 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$505.09 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7cb…d447backed No | 78c | 2,289$1,790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$499.18 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53eb…7d54backed No | 77c | 2,200$1,698 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$502 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7365…64dabacked No | 65c | 2,149$1,405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$744.64 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe11a…c40bbacked No | 79c | 2,134$1,676 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$457.7 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 69cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa019…5ffdbacked No | 72c | 2,073$1,499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$574.18 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a56…530ebacked No | 75c | 2,000$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e8…8676backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa664…f849backed No | 80c | 2,000$1,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.99 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7db2…3ce5backed Yes | 16c | 1,935$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.62 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed No | 63c | 1,916$1,215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$701.17 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c72…dfb6backed No | 73c | 1,910$1,396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$514 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +3.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa97d…e699backed No | 64c | 1,888$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$687.95 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3994…ff63backed Yes | 7c | 1,875$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.51 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x412c…2d87backed Yes | 8c | 1,875$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71ab…f015backed Yes | 15c | 1,850$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.5 | 139 | 49.6%69 W · 70 L | +20.4wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe467…437fbacked Yes | 39c | 1,775$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x436f…2c7fbacked No | 71c | 1,761$1,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510.56 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 24c | 1,743$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.2 | 77 | 23.4%18 W · 59 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc406…07d9backed No | 59c | 1,695$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$694.92 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40cf…d21dbacked Yes | 17c | 1,651$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.43 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +72.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?this page
- US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 15?No won
- US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.