TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

China Taiwan · resolved market

Trump x Xi talk before July?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
China Taiwanevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$201,284
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$210,146

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $201,284 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 210 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in China Taiwan is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfe10…95cbbacked No23c10,472$2,379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,378.68333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick26cpaid+14.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaec0…5a19backed No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1090%0 W · 9 L-2.0wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x730a…51a0backed No5c9,925$467 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$467.29333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-56.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x830e…7099backed Yes76c8,203$6,249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,953.981100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd57e…95f3backed No42c8,034$3,371 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,37110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8002…8b6cbacked Yes70c6,878$4,818 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,060.321100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x801d…d8e0backed No19c6,030$1,147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,146.610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes58c5,903$3,424 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,478.663444.1%15 W · 19 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-16.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd602…0105backed Yes78c5,583$4,364 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,218.27333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-57.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed Yes59c4,814$2,863 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,950.631338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-23%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x022e…2a77backed No39c4,205$1,623 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,622.5520%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x07cd…21bbbacked No39c4,000$1,540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,539.99333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-16.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4da2…bf18backed No31c3,197$995 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$995250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-36.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No57c2,800$1,602 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,601.983225%8 W · 24 L-7.5wins-0.23per pick48cpaid-65.9%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0xcbc7…8f89backed Yes67c2,622$1,746 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8762100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8a7b…782fbacked Yes62c2,545$1,590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$954.8250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.18per pick32cpaid-20%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes66c2,340$1,537 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$802.971963.2%12 W · 7 L+4.6wins+0.24per pick39cpaid+69.2%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x155c…1b09backed Yes75c2,246$1,692 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$554.041100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+32.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0362…9661backed Yes60c2,244$1,337 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$906.84475%3 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick67cpaid+7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed No42c2,219$922 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$922.39250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-26.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x66c1…fa3fbacked Yes69c2,212$1,536 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$676580%4 W · 1 L+2.7wins+0.53per pick27cpaid+350.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa9f3…0545backed No2c2,136$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x297a…92e0backed No10c2,121$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7215…9842backed No9c2,000$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e11…b846backed Yes49c1,960$969 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$991.071100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+102.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2525…b919backed No37c1,721$629 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$628.54728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-55.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f1c…4e67backed No63c1,644$1,032 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,031.91560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick54cpaid-5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb11…e93fbacked No49c1,600$786 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$785.7610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x71dd…d61cbacked Yes51c1,511$775 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$736.051100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+95%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e4d…f703backed No36c1,500$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x84ea…17ebbacked Yes67c1,406$946 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$460.051100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+48.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x22db…190fbacked Yes64c1,391$891 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$499.612080%16 W · 4 L+4.9wins+0.24per pick56cpaid+49.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xcced…9ffebacked Yes63c1,385$870 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$514.752100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+55.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x709b…0a0abacked Yes49c1,365$672 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$692.92100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+152.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xea17…869cbacked No1c1,361$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9bae…5d34backed Yes74c1,328$988 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$339.19771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.14per pick58cpaid+37.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc529…4f2cbacked No56c1,324$744 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$744.48333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-57.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x46d2…1cf9backed Yes77c1,298$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$298.451100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe58…ee71backed Yes63c1,272$803 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$468.961100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa0bc…d428backed Yes56c1,108$622 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$485.53666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+19%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2478…2e62backed No30c1,067$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322.2210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa70…8f17backed No49c1,040$514 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$513.7540%2 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.17per pick57cpaid-45.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4956…e2c7backed Yes67c1,018$682 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$335.751100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce8f…4400backed No43c1,000$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed Yes47c978.16$461 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$517.561050%5 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-16.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x81e1…7265backed Yes57c967$552 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$415.38250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-12.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No27c944.36$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.562330.4%7 W · 16 L+1.6wins+0.07per pick23cpaid+1.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbcb9…d6c3backed Yes70c909.55$641 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$268.891100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x66c1…2c72backed Yes52c855.18$447 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$408.621030%3 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick26cpaid-14.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x662f…ac37backed Yes62c852.62$528 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$324.651100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe0dc…3944backed Yes67c818.17$545 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$273.13425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-62.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x82f6…4cf4backed No50c759.2$378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$378.120%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x090c…b0cfbacked No22c742.99$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed Yes54c719.38$389 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$330.84728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-55.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ffb…a834backed Yes76c706.24$537 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.851100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7494…6e0bbacked No21c699.99$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37a4…a487backed Yes46c689.43$314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$375.35366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.25per pick42cpaid+74.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x583b…2ef1backed Yes75c666.15$502 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.38366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick66cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc26…24d0backed Yes65c617.33$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.331100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+54.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf750…4abbbacked Yes69c600$416 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed No41c597.08$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.491118.2%2 W · 9 L-2.4wins-0.22per pick40cpaid-74.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x74f0…0e43backed No39c596.57$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.03862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.21per pick41cpaid+59.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe633…c0febacked No5c570$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.9616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick24cpaid-73.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d7e…a7b0backed No34c551.89$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.1610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2778…8547backed Yes63c539.79$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.72333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-47.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x92d0…269ebacked No24c513.1$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.67933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-44.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeeb1…bf68backed Yes51c512.17$263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.5520%1 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-61%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x45d9…f84bbacked No39c500$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.3530%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x12bf…ddafbacked No20c500$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ff4…17d1backed Yes43c471.07$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$270.72366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.45per pick21cpaid+432.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x72f7…1870backed Yes23c456.04$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$349.041100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.77per pick23cpaid+326.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc9df…d8bcbacked No44c450.82$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes70c436$305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.52785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.7wins+0.39per pick46cpaid+89.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8c21…adafbacked No23c432.05$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe947…7a45backed No27c428.63$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.51757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb46d…7093backed Yes57c420.07$238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.62250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid-11.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe6a8…00c7backed No23c419.99$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6dee…f4e6backed Yes62c415.48$256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.91666.7%4 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick71cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa9a…de87backed Yes63c396.83$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.831100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No35c381.34$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.256933.3%23 W · 46 L-3.9wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-32.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf00a…c77cbacked Yes52c359.58$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.96250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeec5…b6febacked Yes62c352.28$217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.922259.1%13 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid-9.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbdd1…0c4fbacked Yes73c345$253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.752100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+34.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8720…6f76backed No35c325.04$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.730%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf327…0b68backed Yes56c312.42$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.57475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.23per pick52cpaid+23.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No28c303.81$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.044325.6%11 W · 32 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-48.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3b93…9ec4backed No55c300$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1651533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.5wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-12.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdb5a…3965backed Yes78c300$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$661100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf41c…ba2fbacked Yes52c299.97$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.461330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf08e…41a7backed No20c297.37$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No34c293.21$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.335345.3%24 W · 29 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-23.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb46…f68bbacked Yes58c290.28$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.121100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+71.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1955…aef1backed Yes51c282.35$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.9580%4 W · 1 L+2.0wins+0.40per pick40cpaid+81.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x22bd…a216backed No39c276.34$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.7250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-30.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x79c2…9e2ebacked No36c262.26$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.6710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No58c250.68$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.323928.2%11 W · 28 L-2.4wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-51.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x429d…39a7backed No35c250$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7af…3ba8backed No40c250$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed Yes71c249.99$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.5475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+37.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x99d5…e8c9backed Yes66c247.28$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.831100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+52.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.