TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Trump invokes the Insurrection Act before July?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$179,867
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$174,401

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $179,867 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 233 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x96ec…2e60backed Yes22c11,386$2,510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,509.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes13c10,983$1,378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,378.0517633%58 W · 118 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-42.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6bb6…2124backed Yes22c7,807$1,727 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,727.14616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5fc8…39efbacked No75c6,455$4,861 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,593.972147.6%10 W · 11 L+1.9wins+0.09per pick39cpaid-3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x882f…322dbacked No76c4,936$3,758 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,177.73250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-34.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cac…0a0fbacked Yes9c4,853$452 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$452.53225%8 W · 24 L+1.8wins+0.06per pick19cpaid+10.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x08ea…d0a8backed Yes24c4,591$1,090 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,089.92922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick18cpaid-47.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb46d…7093backed Yes12c4,469$555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$555.15616.1%9 W · 47 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick17cpaid+20%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2032…d577backed No78c4,096$3,180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$915.7315155%83 W · 68 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x614d…1546backed No76c3,000$2,280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7208453.6%45 W · 39 L+0.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Yes2c2,826$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.582222.7%5 W · 17 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick22cpaid-49.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes19c2,606$485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$484.984727.7%13 W · 34 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick23cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x241f…3143backed Yes26c2,602$673 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$673.231752.9%9 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa95f…2bdbbacked Yes2c2,566$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.671020%2 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick17cpaid-64.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbaa2…2c73backed No75c2,563$1,934 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$629.124259.5%25 W · 17 L+4.6wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+28.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed Yes3c2,430$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.273989.5%38 W · 360 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-62.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x240b…f5efbacked No76c2,326$1,767 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$559.48560%3 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf572…09f2backed Yes29c2,196$641 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$640.726119.7%12 W · 49 L-5.0wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-42.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x088f…c9e7backed No76c2,088$1,587 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5015642.9%24 W · 32 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-30.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b60…f259backed Yes24c2,088$501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-50.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xcce2…d58bbacked No76c2,000$1,520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$480560%3 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-10.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x490f…17e5backed Yes8c1,889$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.2618322.4%41 W · 142 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-18.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f8b…754fbacked Yes17c1,851$316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$315.93366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd073…b757backed No71c1,849$1,315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$534.132536%9 W · 16 L-5.2wins-0.21per pick57cpaid-46.2%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0x1cb0…f493backed Yes25c1,588$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick58cpaid-9.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes25c1,547$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$379.7999629.5%294 W · 702 L-73.3wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-37.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x57cd…82acbacked No70c1,421$1,001 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$419.792147.6%10 W · 11 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick40cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6532…e7c1backed Yes19c1,410$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271.42633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-41.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf9b7…60a4backed Yes22c1,331$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.414436.4%16 W · 28 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick37cpaid+5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5950…8c48backed Yes27c1,176$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321.653432.4%11 W · 23 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-11.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed Yes14c1,103$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.8332029.1%93 W · 227 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-14.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e6d…2dcdbacked No75c1,082$810 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$272.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeeb1…bf68backed Yes23c1,058$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.810630.2%32 W · 74 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+57.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8c70…e930backed Yes24c1,038$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.13366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+13.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x110a…38a8backed Yes5c981.85$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.76397.7%3 W · 36 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick5cpaid-55.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x771d…e0ebbacked Yes31c942.14$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.591050%5 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-20%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7acd…cf9ebacked Yes23c941.49$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.0530%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xafe4…0d29backed Yes24c903.43$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22050%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1834…e302backed Yes2c803.04$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b64…49bdbacked No78c800$622 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1787254.2%39 W · 33 L+6.2wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+17.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x30bf…866fbacked Yes16c793.75$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-28.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x912a…0f92backed Yes2c779.57$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.9918516.2%30 W · 155 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick15cpaid-33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x48d3…30babacked No70c725.92$507 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.667943%34 W · 45 L-5.3wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-24.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3bbb…ba7bbacked Yes3c725.74$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x25ed…7f3cbacked No71c680$483 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.22100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+89.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No76c657.43$502 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.851,07335.5%381 W · 692 L-70.5wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-27.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd90b…15bcbacked Yes38c656.53$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+212.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdcfe…d2f0backed Yes29c650$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.5250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+47.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdaa5…c7bebacked No74c647.92$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.02366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcced…9ffebacked No76c642.4$491 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.227856.4%44 W · 34 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf4f2…695cbacked Yes22c638.54$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142560%3 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.21per pick39cpaid+9.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x921a…daedbacked No75c605.6$454 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.612100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+111.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes2c602.97$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1414624.7%36 W · 110 L-6.7wins-0.05per pick29cpaid-52.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5109…5e9cbacked No78c600$470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13018033.3%60 W · 120 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-10.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes17c599.98$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.9919328.5%55 W · 138 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes6c595.08$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.042154.2%9 W · 206 L-8.5wins-0.04per pick8cpaid-37.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes26c575.14$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.8244111.3%50 W · 391 L-44.5wins-0.10per pick21cpaid-52.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xdc9b…7faabacked Yes22c550.68$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.15540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-44.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa84…e985backed No63c550$347 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.51546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-25.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc561…fa80backed No73c528.52$384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.843959%23 W · 16 L-2.9wins-0.07per pick66cpaid-17.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed No74c514.14$383 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.4337740.6%153 W · 224 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x45cc…6400backed No72c497.87$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.399958.6%58 W · 41 L+3.7wins+0.04per pick55cpaid-8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0894…cf93backed Yes22c496.9$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.327051.4%36 W · 34 L+6.7wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+11.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xab7b…f350backed Yes24c490$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.52766.7%18 W · 9 L+5.2wins+0.19per pick47cpaid+43.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xfd6d…f860backed No73c489.95$359 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.951866.7%12 W · 6 L+2.4wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+5.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd0e1…7c9fbacked No75c478.83$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.268169.1%56 W · 25 L+4.1wins+0.05per pick64cpaid+9.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5cd9…bccebacked Yes27c474.92$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.045438.9%21 W · 33 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-7.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes22c461.65$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10019435.1%68 W · 126 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-9.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ef0…f7e0backed No77c456.72$351 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.662429.2%7 W · 17 L-4.8wins-0.20per pick49cpaid-52.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xd124…b1c6backed Yes16c437.5$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick18cpaid-84.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6ce…0772backed No75c433.64$324 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.751100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x83c5…0299backed Yes24c417.22$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.72955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf065…c418backed Yes3c413.76$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.516645.5%30 W · 36 L+3.7wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+39.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6b3d…76ddbacked No70c410.85$288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.256028.3%17 W · 43 L+0.1wins0.00per pick28cpaid-41.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6acc…a608backed Yes24c410.28$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda44…2b09backed Yes25c400$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003644.4%16 W · 20 L+2.2wins+0.06per pick38cpaid-24.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x708d…ea78backed Yes24c400$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$961844.4%8 W · 10 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick39cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa717…faeabacked No79c400$316 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84580%4 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.23per pick57cpaid+124.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x030e…20ebbacked No75c398.36$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.361643.8%7 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick37cpaid+26.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4483…c565backed No75c397.42$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.422965.5%19 W · 10 L-0.1wins0.00per pick66cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec63…85ddbacked Yes22c374.91$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.23per pick38cpaid-78.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8091…c4bcbacked Yes28c362.45$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-34.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf960…ba50backed Yes21c340$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.852147.6%10 W · 11 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+11.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc9df…d8bcbacked Yes31c318.91$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003030%9 W · 21 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-47.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x46f6…d494backed Yes26c303.38$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8030%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e65…7bc1backed Yes14c300$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$423935.9%14 W · 25 L-3.1wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-24.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x43fd…f05cbacked Yes3c300$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.21010%1 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick8cpaid+63.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1102…af36backed No74c300$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$787447.3%35 W · 39 L-5.7wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-16.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xfd50…c17bbacked No76c300$227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.212533.6%42 W · 83 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf595…8413backed Yes36c288.68$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.81225%3 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-45.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcbc7…8f89backed Yes27c285.67$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.135743.9%25 W · 32 L+4.0wins+0.07per pick37cpaid+2.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc94b…fd9bbacked No64c277.45$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.44422.7%10 W · 34 L-3.2wins-0.07per pick30cpaid-44.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5e6a…a365backed Yes29c275.86$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5a5…717dbacked No77c274.99$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.75250%1 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick78cpaid-35.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4020…11d1backed No76c264.22$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.221457.1%8 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No79c258.07$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.1256733.2%188 W · 379 L-40.9wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-29.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe71d…78cebacked Yes14c256.93$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.97425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-55.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3ead…99eebacked Yes39c255.41$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100933.3%3 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.17per pick16cpaid+93.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd03c…68cfbacked Yes16c250$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401020%2 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-41.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Yes22c250$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5510145.5%46 W · 55 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.