TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$10,993,956
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$12,853,954

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,993,956 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 2,650 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x34d2…75a8backed Yes11c1,018,767$112,677 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112,677.322015%3 W · 17 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick16cpaid-64.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0584…de3ebacked Yes33c500,457$166,037 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166,037.0310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6fca…05bcbacked Yes23c308,463$71,916 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71,915.641216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick22cpaid-27.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf2f6…5817backed No70c292,024$205,776 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86,247.714156.1%23 W · 18 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick58cpaid+8.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes18c249,999$45,351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45,351.462015%3 W · 17 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick20cpaid-63.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x090a…01b4backed No67c223,249$148,789 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74,460.054650%23 W · 23 L+2.7wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x889e…09e0backed No77c207,928$160,121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47,807.664257.1%24 W · 18 L+4.8wins+0.12per pick46cpaid+34.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x253d…3307backed No65c196,432$128,228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68,203.862642.3%11 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-28.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x551e…b0e0backed No67c149,190$100,056 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49,133.294126.8%11 W · 30 L-3.0wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-37.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No55c142,962$78,995 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63,966.8651138.7%198 W · 313 L+18.7wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x36db…00d4backed Yes52c129,900$67,471 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67,470.9310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b3d…76ddbacked No54c129,323$69,267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60,055.894045%18 W · 22 L+3.5wins+0.09per pick36cpaid-7.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x93fb…3e4abacked Yes30c127,130$38,222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38,221.597032.9%23 W · 47 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+26.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5c00…a074backed No59c105,521$62,257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43,263.611100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc536…b4aebacked Yes41c105,521$43,264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43,263.6110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xebaa…abacbacked Yes0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc658…b784backed No79c97,712$77,646 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,066.527542.7%32 W · 43 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-18.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8e6c…623dbacked Yes39c94,712$36,938 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36,937.6810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7861…1104backed No61c94,712$57,774 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36,937.681100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7504…9c69backed No58c90,015$52,645 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37,370.31450%7 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd22…9ef1backed No67c88,185$59,114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29,071.356141%25 W · 36 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-14.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x088f…c9e7backed Yes50c84,498$42,425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42,425.338137%30 W · 51 L-9.2wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-31.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xdda3…8afebacked No59c84,005$49,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34,104.7333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-43.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb167…3a2fbacked Yes36c79,213$28,517 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28,516.6810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdaba…f4e4backed No64c79,213$50,696 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28,516.681100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ff1…72ebbacked Yes19c72,723$14,152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,151.573250%16 W · 16 L+2.5wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+35.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcd71…d127backed No69c69,324$48,008 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,316.031637.5%6 W · 10 L-3.6wins-0.22per pick60cpaid-41.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x2b29…5967backed Yes40c69,253$27,428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27,428.431070%7 W · 3 L+3.9wins+0.39per pick31cpaid+156.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xbaa2…2c73backed No76c68,713$52,505 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,208.1737740.1%151 W · 226 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc851…cd2abacked No71c68,044$48,494 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,549.47538.7%29 W · 46 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-17.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe25b…0f1bbacked No58c62,374$36,244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,130.057142.3%30 W · 41 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-14.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x96c6…34a2backed No61c60,879$36,890 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,988.5910150.5%51 W · 50 L-4.0wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-14.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x24b1…48eebacked No70c55,358$39,024 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,334.222100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+61%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7131…29ccbacked No68c54,557$37,113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,443.422236.4%8 W · 14 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5bac…6634backed Yes38c54,546$20,910 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,910.051266.7%8 W · 4 L+3.2wins+0.26per pick40cpaid+66.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x712f…b93bbacked No78c52,599$40,999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,599.851060%6 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick53cpaid-15.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x738d…06fabacked Yes63c52,480$33,158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33,158.320%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc5fe…e320backed Yes33c52,410$17,075 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,074.51728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed No73c51,092$37,061 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,031.0128750.2%144 W · 143 L-1.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8795…7544backed No61c49,410$30,175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,235.641752.9%9 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+12.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0d9…e4eebacked No70c47,860$33,327 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,532.983053.3%16 W · 14 L+2.4wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+6.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x398d…c7c3backed No71c46,789$33,220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,568.851723.5%4 W · 13 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-60.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb11…e93fbacked Yes44c44,002$19,536 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,536.171643.8%7 W · 9 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+73.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f0a…f7aabacked No74c43,388$32,243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,144.774032.5%13 W · 27 L-5.3wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-52%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc6dd…4b9fbacked No75c42,894$31,973 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,920.617946.8%37 W · 42 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ad7…4d49backed Yes39c40,522$15,718 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,718.371050%5 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+16.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x39c2…d478backed Yes56c39,361$21,866 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,865.84333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-55%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x614d…1546backed No61c38,002$23,127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,875.4113850.7%70 W · 68 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfcb0…c865backed No63c37,445$23,756 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,688.973644.4%16 W · 20 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x06ac…79ecbacked Yes34c37,429$12,707 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,706.665054%27 W · 23 L+0.1wins0.00per pick54cpaid+13.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb747…b050backed Yes59c35,560$20,863 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,863.121931.6%6 W · 13 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-46.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfa32…bd9abacked No52c35,374$18,532 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,841.969145.1%41 W · 50 L-8.4wins-0.09per pick54cpaid-22.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes34c33,935$11,587 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,587.288450%42 W · 42 L+5.4wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-9.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe60e…760abacked Yes37c32,993$12,189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,188.95757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+22.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x16bd…e288backed No53c31,625$16,748 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,876.233315.2%5 W · 28 L-2.5wins-0.08per pick23cpaid-37.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No78c31,220$24,289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,930.9740828.9%118 W · 290 L-29.5wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-36%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x854d…deb0backed Yes48c30,672$14,790 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,790.261747.1%8 W · 9 L+2.6wins+0.15per pick32cpaid+44.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x72aa…3b8bbacked Yes49c30,595$14,885 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,884.63156.7%1 W · 14 L-2.3wins-0.15per pick22cpaid-72.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7967…f4a0backed No60c30,000$18,118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,881.62966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3238…3291backed No78c28,685$22,331 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,353.51464.3%9 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick71cpaid-10.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x24c8…23e1backed No62c28,100$17,448 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,652.7928427.8%79 W · 205 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-37.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa22d…ea45backed Yes60c27,627$16,593 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,592.551020%2 W · 8 L-3.4wins-0.34per pick54cpaid-71.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes2c27,013$558 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$557.6742818.7%80 W · 348 L+9.5wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-28.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d9f…9790backed Yes18c26,705$4,935 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,934.6835347%166 W · 187 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7678…e5f0backed No43c25,517$10,999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,518.783225%8 W · 24 L-3.5wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-52.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe145…519abacked No62c25,000$15,413 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,586.513100%3 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+40.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x682c…17aebacked Yes2c24,935$454 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$453.8421521.9%47 W · 168 L+11.6wins+0.05per pick16cpaid+29.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes9c24,647$2,302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,301.9456336.6%206 W · 357 L+44.4wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+37.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xf4ba…5933backed No50c24,101$12,051 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,050.682133.3%7 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-34%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac80…97b1backed No79c23,500$18,625 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,875.34366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick74cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6640…2202backed No64c23,237$14,839 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,397.794656.5%26 W · 20 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d02…d47cbacked No44c22,448$9,842 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,606.67366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+18.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x53e5…6177backed Yes29c22,427$6,497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,496.8913823.2%32 W · 106 L+0.6wins0.00per pick23cpaid-29.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x716f…9798backed Yes62c21,546$13,461 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,460.5910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b64…49bdbacked No73c21,436$15,544 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,892.864641.3%19 W · 27 L-6.4wins-0.14per pick55cpaid-27.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x2c4c…cb39backed No39c21,298$8,259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,038.344223.8%10 W · 32 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick22cpaid-34.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b6f…8afbbacked Yes57c21,034$12,032 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,031.91553.3%8 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+9.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x056e…8be2backed No65c20,227$13,102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,124.78250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-22.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b49…d0dfbacked Yes63c20,000$12,640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,640.21633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-38.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2032…d577backed No58c19,836$11,528 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,307.623762.2%23 W · 14 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+13.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8fe7…4f20backed No60c18,982$11,321 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,660.157142.3%30 W · 41 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+11.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x975a…73fabacked Yes58c18,693$10,817 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,816.5230%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x629b…995abacked No78c18,661$14,572 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,088.622458.3%14 W · 10 L+1.6wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+14.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7d37…2446backed Yes45c18,372$8,277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,276.6650%0 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x801d…d8e0backed Yes51c18,290$9,259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,259.473154.8%17 W · 14 L-2.2wins-0.07per pick62cpaid-18.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed No60c16,976$10,226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,750.035354.7%29 W · 24 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2755…5016backed No39c16,792$6,617 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,175.031637.5%6 W · 10 L-2.1wins-0.13per pick51cpaid-40.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x456b…eb7ebacked Yes45c16,529$7,377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,376.841747.1%8 W · 9 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+25.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc781…59d7backed Yes22c16,083$3,571 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,571.075248.1%25 W · 27 L+0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-20.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1937…d1ebbacked Yes45c15,276$6,950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,950933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-30%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3be4…e718backed Yes48c14,962$7,113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,112.9410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6bab…1292backed No74c14,688$10,840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,848.099647.9%46 W · 50 L+8.0wins+0.08per pick40cpaid+8.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x9adb…d792backed Yes14c14,635$2,083 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,083.19333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-54.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x48aa…fccdbacked Yes27c14,310$3,921 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,921.221838.9%7 W · 11 L+1.4wins+0.08per pick31cpaid-22.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b32…5950backed No58c13,992$8,068 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,923.832748.1%13 W · 14 L+2.7wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+33.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa82b…5220backed No67c13,988$9,329 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,659.4320736.2%75 W · 132 L-0.1wins0.00per pick36cpaid-18.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbbed…c1debacked Yes63c13,817$8,688 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,687.8940%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf1f9…1245backed No49c13,770$6,730 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,040.4613746%63 W · 74 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed No62c13,138$8,109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,028.486942%29 W · 40 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-18.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4bbe…2cf3backed Yes33c13,104$4,276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,275.892653.8%14 W · 12 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.