Middle East · resolved market
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1b6f76e5b8587ee896c35847e12d11e75290a8c3934c5952e8a9d6e4c6f03cfa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,993,956
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,853,954
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,993,956 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 2,650 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x34d2…75a8backed Yes | 11c | 1,018,767$112,677 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112,677.32 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0584…de3ebacked Yes | 33c | 500,457$166,037 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166,037.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fca…05bcbacked Yes | 23c | 308,463$71,916 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71,915.64 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed No | 70c | 292,024$205,776 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86,247.71 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 18c | 249,999$45,351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45,351.46 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…01b4backed No | 67c | 223,249$148,789 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74,460.05 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x889e…09e0backed No | 77c | 207,928$160,121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47,807.66 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +4.8wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x253d…3307backed No | 65c | 196,432$128,228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68,203.86 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x551e…b0e0backed No | 67c | 149,190$100,056 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49,133.29 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 55c | 142,962$78,995 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63,966.86 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36db…00d4backed Yes | 52c | 129,900$67,471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67,470.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3d…76ddbacked No | 54c | 129,323$69,267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60,055.89 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93fb…3e4abacked Yes | 30c | 127,130$38,222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38,221.59 | 70 | 32.9%23 W · 47 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c00…a074backed No | 59c | 105,521$62,257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43,263.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc536…b4aebacked Yes | 41c | 105,521$43,264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43,263.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebaa…abacbacked Yes | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc658…b784backed No | 79c | 97,712$77,646 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,066.52 | 75 | 42.7%32 W · 43 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e6c…623dbacked Yes | 39c | 94,712$36,938 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36,937.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7861…1104backed No | 61c | 94,712$57,774 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36,937.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7504…9c69backed No | 58c | 90,015$52,645 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37,370.3 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed No | 67c | 88,185$59,114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29,071.35 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x088f…c9e7backed Yes | 50c | 84,498$42,425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42,425.33 | 81 | 37%30 W · 51 L | -9.2wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdda3…8afebacked No | 59c | 84,005$49,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34,104.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb167…3a2fbacked Yes | 36c | 79,213$28,517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28,516.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaba…f4e4backed No | 64c | 79,213$50,696 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28,516.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff1…72ebbacked Yes | 19c | 72,723$14,152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,151.57 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd71…d127backed No | 69c | 69,324$48,008 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,316.03 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -3.6wins | -0.22per pick | 60cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2b29…5967backed Yes | 40c | 69,253$27,428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27,428.43 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +3.9wins | +0.39per pick | 31cpaid | +156.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed No | 76c | 68,713$52,505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,208.17 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc851…cd2abacked No | 71c | 68,044$48,494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,549.4 | 75 | 38.7%29 W · 46 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe25b…0f1bbacked No | 58c | 62,374$36,244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26,130.05 | 71 | 42.3%30 W · 41 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96c6…34a2backed No | 61c | 60,879$36,890 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23,988.59 | 101 | 50.5%51 W · 50 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24b1…48eebacked No | 70c | 55,358$39,024 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,334.22 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +61%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7131…29ccbacked No | 68c | 54,557$37,113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,443.42 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bac…6634backed Yes | 38c | 54,546$20,910 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,910.05 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +3.2wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +66.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x712f…b93bbacked No | 78c | 52,599$40,999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,599.85 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x738d…06fabacked Yes | 63c | 52,480$33,158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33,158.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5fe…e320backed Yes | 33c | 52,410$17,075 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,074.51 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 73c | 51,092$37,061 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,031.01 | 287 | 50.2%144 W · 143 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8795…7544backed No | 61c | 49,410$30,175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,235.64 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d9…e4eebacked No | 70c | 47,860$33,327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,532.98 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x398d…c7c3backed No | 71c | 46,789$33,220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,568.85 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb11…e93fbacked Yes | 44c | 44,002$19,536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,536.17 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +73.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f0a…f7aabacked No | 74c | 43,388$32,243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,144.77 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -5.3wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -52%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc6dd…4b9fbacked No | 75c | 42,894$31,973 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,920.61 | 79 | 46.8%37 W · 42 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad7…4d49backed Yes | 39c | 40,522$15,718 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,718.37 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39c2…d478backed Yes | 56c | 39,361$21,866 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,865.84 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -55%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…1546backed No | 61c | 38,002$23,127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,875.41 | 138 | 50.7%70 W · 68 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed No | 63c | 37,445$23,756 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,688.97 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06ac…79ecbacked Yes | 34c | 37,429$12,707 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,706.66 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb747…b050backed Yes | 59c | 35,560$20,863 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,863.12 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa32…bd9abacked No | 52c | 35,374$18,532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,841.96 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | -8.4wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 34c | 33,935$11,587 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,587.28 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe60e…760abacked Yes | 37c | 32,993$12,189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,188.95 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16bd…e288backed No | 53c | 31,625$16,748 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,876.23 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 78c | 31,220$24,289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,930.97 | 408 | 28.9%118 W · 290 L | -29.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -36%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x854d…deb0backed Yes | 48c | 30,672$14,790 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,790.26 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.15per pick | 32cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…3b8bbacked Yes | 49c | 30,595$14,885 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,884.63 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.15per pick | 22cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7967…f4a0backed No | 60c | 30,000$18,118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,881.62 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3238…3291backed No | 78c | 28,685$22,331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,353.5 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 71cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed No | 62c | 28,100$17,448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,652.79 | 284 | 27.8%79 W · 205 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa22d…ea45backed Yes | 60c | 27,627$16,593 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,592.55 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -3.4wins | -0.34per pick | 54cpaid | -71.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 2c | 27,013$558 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$557.67 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed Yes | 18c | 26,705$4,935 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,934.68 | 353 | 47%166 W · 187 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7678…e5f0backed No | 43c | 25,517$10,999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,518.78 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe145…519abacked No | 62c | 25,000$15,413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,586.51 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 2c | 24,935$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453.84 | 215 | 21.9%47 W · 168 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 9c | 24,647$2,302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,301.94 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ba…5933backed No | 50c | 24,101$12,051 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,050.68 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -34%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac80…97b1backed No | 79c | 23,500$18,625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,875.34 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6640…2202backed No | 64c | 23,237$14,839 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,397.79 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d02…d47cbacked No | 44c | 22,448$9,842 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,606.67 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…6177backed Yes | 29c | 22,427$6,497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,496.89 | 138 | 23.2%32 W · 106 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x716f…9798backed Yes | 62c | 21,546$13,461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,460.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b64…49bdbacked No | 73c | 21,436$15,544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,892.86 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -6.4wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4c…cb39backed No | 39c | 21,298$8,259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,038.34 | 42 | 23.8%10 W · 32 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6f…8afbbacked Yes | 57c | 21,034$12,032 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,031.9 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x056e…8be2backed No | 65c | 20,227$13,102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,124.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b49…d0dfbacked Yes | 63c | 20,000$12,640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,640.21 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed No | 58c | 19,836$11,528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,307.62 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed No | 60c | 18,982$11,321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,660.15 | 71 | 42.3%30 W · 41 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x975a…73fabacked Yes | 58c | 18,693$10,817 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,816.52 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked No | 78c | 18,661$14,572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,088.62 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d37…2446backed Yes | 45c | 18,372$8,277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,276.66 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x801d…d8e0backed Yes | 51c | 18,290$9,259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,259.47 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed No | 60c | 16,976$10,226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,750.03 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2755…5016backed No | 39c | 16,792$6,617 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,175.03 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x456b…eb7ebacked Yes | 45c | 16,529$7,377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,376.84 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc781…59d7backed Yes | 22c | 16,083$3,571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,571.07 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1937…d1ebbacked Yes | 45c | 15,276$6,950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,950 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -30%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3be4…e718backed Yes | 48c | 14,962$7,113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,112.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…1292backed No | 74c | 14,688$10,840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,848.09 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | +8.0wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9adb…d792backed Yes | 14c | 14,635$2,083 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,083.19 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48aa…fccdbacked Yes | 27c | 14,310$3,921 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,921.22 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…5950backed No | 58c | 13,992$8,068 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,923.83 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed No | 67c | 13,988$9,329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,659.43 | 207 | 36.2%75 W · 132 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbed…c1debacked Yes | 63c | 13,817$8,688 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,687.89 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed No | 49c | 13,770$6,730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,040.46 | 137 | 46%63 W · 74 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 62c | 13,138$8,109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,028.48 | 69 | 42%29 W · 40 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbe…2cf3backed Yes | 33c | 13,104$4,276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,275.89 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.