TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

OpenAI becomes a for-profit in 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$249,364
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$243,227

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $249,364 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 227 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe352…f259backed No0c83,647$313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$313.0320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x17ce…beecbacked Yes73c9,748$7,097 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,651.36328.6%18 W · 45 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick24cpaid-14.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd06f…d4a6backed Yes51c4,702$2,391 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,311.021136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick30cpaid-38%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4fc2…e3f4backed Yes71c4,389$3,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,269.02580%4 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick66cpaid+21.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc851…cd2abacked Yes54c4,185$2,242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,942.812853.6%15 W · 13 L+3.7wins+0.13per pick40cpaid+7.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed Yes73c3,871$2,845 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,026.033514.3%5 W · 30 L-4.0wins-0.11per pick26cpaid-81%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x7a61…af24backed No20c3,784$755 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$754.559435.1%33 W · 61 L+13.1wins+0.14per pick21cpaid+167%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x094e…f10bbacked No36c3,328$1,195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,195.455448.1%26 W · 28 L+4.9wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+24.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No1c3,077$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.021,3636.8%93 W · 1,270 L-20.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-59.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe004…dbd7backed No2c2,710$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed Yes52c2,426$1,268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,157.237611.8%9 W · 67 L-4.0wins-0.05per pick17cpaid-72.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x497b…aba5backed No64c2,117$1,362 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,361.711952.6%10 W · 9 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f23…27cbbacked No4c2,070$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90520%1 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.17per pick37cpaid-72%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7eb3…9c62backed No2c2,033$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x48d3…30babacked No48c2,028$979 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$979.482245.5%10 W · 12 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-23.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed No52c1,916$1,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000.584020%8 W · 32 L-2.9wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-67.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5d83…0bb9backed Yes80c1,861$1,489 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$372.258644.2%38 W · 48 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+10%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2402…9376backed Yes63c1,600$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6001100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+60%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb1b…a11dbacked No76c1,577$1,198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,197.969041.1%37 W · 53 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x460a…d738backed Yes69c1,472$1,014 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$457.151533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.6wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-51.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe03f…ffd6backed No30c1,375$413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$413.2310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb6be…fcfebacked No40c1,347$545 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$544.561735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-28.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5fe0…6387backed No47c1,267$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6001338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+49.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x45ae…30a5backed No4c1,260$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf208…5eefbacked Yes79c1,246$989 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.511030%3 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-27.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes62c1,200$744 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45645738.9%178 W · 279 L-31.3wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-3.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0e95…a0e4backed No29c1,095$316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$316.42366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+15.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e35…1a6cbacked No51c1,082$549 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$548.935046%23 W · 27 L+4.0wins+0.08per pick38cpaid+22.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No44c1,046$459 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$459.338220.7%17 W · 65 L-4.9wins-0.06per pick27cpaid-48.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked No1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1021713.4%29 W · 188 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+2.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed No26c1,000$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2601435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-11.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d29…5268backed Yes70c983.3$688 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$295.532100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc490…0050backed No2c968$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d3e…58c7backed Yes47c956.55$452 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$504.77425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-47.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb81…1cf3backed No21c952$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.924531.1%14 W · 31 L+8.4wins+0.19per pick13cpaid+143.3%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xaa6e…23a5backed Yes59c950$561 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$389.52100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+101%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x113e…3febbacked No41c950$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$389.510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbdd1…0c4fbacked No37c916.19$337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$337.12626.9%7 W · 19 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-54.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x76f1…bc8fbacked No72c874.62$629 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$629.01450%2 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-33.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6917…7279backed Yes67c850$570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa066…515abacked No33c850$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280.510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3413…5204backed No42c838$349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$349.05616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.23per pick39cpaid-77.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0f77…a9a9backed Yes21c820.09$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$646.52333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick23cpaid+57.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2cde…5b98backed No13c768$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.843125.8%8 W · 23 L+4.1wins+0.13per pick13cpaid+104%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1b24…2e06backed Yes64c768$492 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276.481100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xadf4…ce9dbacked No29c743.96$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.241127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick35cpaid-37.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x388e…2078backed No9c722$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.623748.6%18 W · 19 L+2.8wins+0.08per pick41cpaid-2.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc24f…f722backed No1c721.43$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8cce…5c11backed No74c679.96$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500850%4 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-6.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6136…5dcdbacked Yes74c677.39$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.39887.5%7 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.18per pick69cpaid+28%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5e9c…cd75backed Yes28c669$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$478.75825%2 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-39.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3000…0d25backed No77c666.62$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5101250%6 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-15.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes72c657.7$474 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.9457426.8%154 W · 420 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-45.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc77…c035backed Yes52c612.26$319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$293.324553.3%24 W · 21 L+3.2wins+0.07per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes59c542.08$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.22445.8%11 W · 13 L+3.2wins+0.13per pick32cpaid+9.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x0433…8b4fbacked No6c531.77$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.9720%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x961a…73acbacked No75c525.83$393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$393.24641.3%19 W · 27 L+3.6wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+13.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x011f…1122backed No33c514.24$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.71330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-54.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdfc1…818dbacked Yes49c501$246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255.061241.7%5 W · 7 L+1.5wins+0.12per pick30cpaid-8.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x554c…7156backed No5c499.5$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.98520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-37.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed No44c484$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.842437.5%9 W · 15 L+1.9wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+60.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf812…494bbacked Yes36c477$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$306.08333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd7ea…dd4ebacked Yes23c449.48$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$344.481376.9%10 W · 3 L+3.5wins+0.27per pick50cpaid+53.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed Yes67c443.55$298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.895635.7%20 W · 36 L-3.7wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-36.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf9dc…528fbacked Yes72c429.28$309 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.51450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.19per pick31cpaid-12.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f4f…b4b3backed No7c428.26$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.7721125.6%54 W · 157 L-8.1wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-23.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed No40c421.6$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.863813.2%5 W · 33 L-3.6wins-0.09per pick23cpaid-50%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No51c419.19$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.2625731.5%81 W · 176 L-14.6wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-32.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9f15…cd6dbacked Yes29c417.61$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$297.61250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick19cpaid+74%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4bd…ae77backed No34c409.83$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.781729.4%5 W · 12 L-1.9wins-0.11per pick40cpaid-40.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x09e2…29debacked No35c400$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.831573.3%11 W · 4 L+2.8wins+0.19per pick55cpaid+28.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4ef2…1863backed No35c395.89$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.8730%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed No65c371.78$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.197222.2%16 W · 56 L-0.3wins0.00per pick23cpaid-26%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7842…4d91backed Yes39c365.12$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2246841.2%28 W · 40 L+8.4wins+0.12per pick29cpaid+54.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed No48c359.88$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.748543.5%37 W · 48 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-25.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x65fe…4953backed Yes59c353.53$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.53450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-22.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2586…f4b1backed Yes30c337.44$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.342842.9%12 W · 16 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb328…00debacked No31c327.8$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes62c325.08$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.4147938%182 W · 297 L-11.3wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-22.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc2fb…5215backed No71c320.61$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.51250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick74cpaid-34.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ab5…1d6ebacked Yes45c310$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.3683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.21per pick62cpaid+38.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2525…b919backed Yes60c310$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.823652.8%19 W · 17 L+5.5wins+0.15per pick38cpaid+23.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes50c306.12$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.6372935.5%259 W · 470 L-57.8wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-26.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0484…a23ebacked No32c300$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$961250%6 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-8.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4263…edb3backed Yes65c300$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1051100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x588c…1bf4backed No78c297.91$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2323339.4%13 W · 20 L-2.5wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-11.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf5e9…6094backed No35c289.6$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5377…e6dabacked No35c288.3$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x50f3…c2c2backed Yes47c279.97$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.462528%7 W · 18 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-37.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b0b…3f0bbacked Yes25c276$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.093135.5%11 W · 20 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-14%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x088f…c9e7backed No73c264.83$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.4730%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed No77c261$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.2715615.4%24 W · 132 L-8.9wins-0.06per pick21cpaid-79.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed No56c248.47$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.111030.9%34 W · 76 L-4.7wins-0.04per pick35cpaid+5.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb65b…6c84backed No61c246.03$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-41.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xebb6…f162backed No50c241.85$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.352245.5%10 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-25%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b93…9ec4backed Yes35c237.37$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.086053.3%32 W · 28 L+8.1wins+0.13per pick40cpaid+36.2%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
0x24c0…4a9cbacked No32c218.75$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7050%0 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7fe8…b7e4backed No46c217.58$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-31.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a4a…73d2backed No74c203.59$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.30per pick55cpaid-66.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8fb2…e5d5backed No71c200.96$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.68450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-11.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.