TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xd7ea…dd4e

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
106
Categories scored
15
Categories below 50
10

Best Category: AI, grading 60 out of 100 (+0.09 per pick).

Best Category AI at 60 out of 100; worst China Taiwan at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved May 19, 2026, EDT2955.2%16 W · 13 L-2.5wins-0.09per pick64cpaid-7.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
NBA — the 29 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spurs vs. Thunderbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Cavaliers vs. Pistonsbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT+170.3%+$42.57
Nuggets vs. Timberwolvesbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$294Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$294.06
Hawks vs. Knicksbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$98Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$98.14
Lakers vs. Kingsbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$770Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$770
Bucks vs. Lakersbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$262Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$261.87
Lakers vs. Pelicansbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$800Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2026, EST+49.3%+$394.03
Hornets vs. Thunderbacked Hornets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST+29.9%+$5.97
Grizzlies vs. Lakersbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2026, EST+71.4%+$71.43
Celtics vs. Clippersbacked Clippers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST-100%-$60
Jazz vs. Warriorsbacked Jazz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST-100%-$30
Rockets vs. Mavericksbacked Mavericks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST+192.9%+$77.17
Rockets vs. Pelicansbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Knicks vs. Pacersbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2025, EST+56.3%+$11.25
Spurs vs. Nuggetsbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 29, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Nuggets vs. Rocketsbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$140Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST+49.4%+$69.21
Timberwolves vs. Sunsbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Heat vs. Bullsbacked Heat · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST+117.4%+$23.48
76ers vs. Bucksbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2025, EST+85.2%+$170.37
Jazz vs. Lakersbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$320Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2025, EST+31.1%+$99.53
Pacers vs. Sunsbacked Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2025, EST+40.2%+$16.09
Nuggets vs. Clippersbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST+26.6%+$5.32
Pelicans vs. Sunsbacked Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 11, 2025, EST+31.6%+$6.32
Bucks vs. Mavericksbacked Bucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 11, 2025, EST+75.4%+$30.18
Thunder vs. Trail Blazersbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$600Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 6, 2025, EST-100%-$600
Showing 25 of 29 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT2774.1%20 W · 7 L+2.6wins+0.10per pick64cpaid+12%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 27 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$1,000Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$282.05
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$300
Spain vs. Belgium: Team to Advancebacked Spain · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT+33.8%+$67.56
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$38.89
Will Lionel Messi's national team advance the furthest at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT+43.1%+$43.1
United States vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$53.85
Mexico vs. England: Team to Advancebacked England · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$3,000Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT+25.9%+$776.46
Brazil vs. Norway: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$63.93
Paraguay vs. France: Paraguay O/U 0.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Canada vs. Morocco: Team to Advancebacked Morocco · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT+28.7%+$143.63
Canada vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Australia vs. Egypt: Team to Advancebacked Egypt · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$217.24
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$100
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$63.16
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT+257.1%+$771.43
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2026, EDT+37%+$73.97
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT+37%+$36.99
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$51.52
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$300
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$900Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT+26.7%+$240.27
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$66.67
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$116.67
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+37%+$36.99
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Showing 25 of 27 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jun 30, 2026, EDT1376.9%10 W · 3 L+3.5wins+0.27per pick50cpaid+53.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
AI — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will OpenAI have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT+38.4%+$115.31
Will Atlas have a Windows app live by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+316.2%+$126.48
Will OpenAI have the top AI model at the end of December 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$200
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$850Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$849.94
Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$1,575Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 17, 2025, EST+27%+$425
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$1,660Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2025, EST+31.9%+$530.33
Will Yann LeCun leave Meta this year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2025, EST+39.6%+$39.56
Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 18 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$16,727Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST+34%+$5,685.8
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$504Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST+42.9%+$216.35
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$9,519Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST+25.1%+$2,391.93
OpenAI becomes a for-profit in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$105Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 28, 2025, EDT+328.1%+$344.48
OpenAI browser by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$7,221Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 21, 2025, EDT+118.1%+$8,526.37
All 13 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Feb 28, 2026, EST580%4 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick73cpaid+10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2026, EDT540%2 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.24per pick64cpaid-45.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Champions League — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved May 22, 2026, EDT520%1 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.31per pick51cpaid-74.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tennis Inactivelast resolved Dec 18, 2025, EST475%3 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick64cpaid+30.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Tennis — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Lol Inactivelast resolved Nov 9, 2025, EST450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-25.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Lol — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved Jan 4, 2026, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick72cpaid-9.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Premier League — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

La Liga Inactivelast resolved May 10, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick79cpaid-15.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
La Liga — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Olympics Inactivelast resolved Feb 22, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-34.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Olympics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Olympics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-24.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 3, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-10.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US government shutdown Saturday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$200
Will the Government shutdown end by November 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST+79.6%+$79.62
All 2 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Ukraine join the Board of Peace?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$900Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+26.7%+$239.86
All 1 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 22, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.35
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.