AI · resolved market
Will Atlas have a Windows app live by December 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x54fbb38439ccd2a9cca902c8a8a55d9e4e5faf76d0a271c52895fa4ee1114d08
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,885
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,958
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,885 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x950a…b380backed Yes | 1c | 1,695$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.37 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,505$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 217 | 13.4%29 W · 188 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd6b…68f5backed Yes | 16c | 1,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | +3.8wins | +0.12per pick | 19cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfc47…da42backed No | 12c | 846.61$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$746.61 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +57.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 3c | 808.81$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.88 | 263 | 12.9%34 W · 229 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…9099backed Yes | 6c | 778.77$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.73 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd1c…61d7backed Yes | 4c | 629.84$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.93 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -37%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7339…fb63backed Yes | 4c | 620.89$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.89 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 31c | 587.35$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.85 | 190 | 11.6%22 W · 168 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68d1…3c4dbacked No | 19c | 512.32$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.73 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | +6.5wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 71c | 467.78$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.24 | 257 | 31.5%81 W · 176 L | -14.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 3c | 412.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 150 | 2.7%4 W · 146 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x300f…d366backed No | 74c | 410.39$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.02 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc451…2609backed No | 17c | 408.35$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.93 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +4.4wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4653…65c5backed Yes | 4c | 383$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +55%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…9c76backed Yes | 3c | 370$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa44d…df91backed No | 19c | 322.22$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.22 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe51e…1a85backed No | 11c | 250$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 72c | 249.71$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.65 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 7c | 238.16$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked Yes | 19c | 220$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -5.3wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x69a0…0cbdbacked No | 42c | 190.87$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked Yes | 56c | 178.68$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.96 | 80 | 41.3%33 W · 47 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ea…dd4ebacked No | 24c | 166.48$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.48 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +3.5wins | +0.27per pick | 50cpaid | +53.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e6…96e3backed Yes | 40c | 131$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 185 | 44.3%82 W · 103 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…8491backed Yes | 62c | 77.2$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.1 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7a…2f10backed No | 36c | 76.04$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.73 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 36cpaid | +142.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…b4d9backed No | 49c | 71.12$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.12 | 71 | 46.5%33 W · 38 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33f0…3970backed Yes | 79c | 52.78$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.7 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -2.5wins | -0.31per pick | 68cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 198 | 34.8%69 W · 129 L | -23.7wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1322…d187backed Yes | 68c | 35.59$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6630…2f4ebacked No | 75c | 35.2$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +3.5wins | +0.18per pick | 50cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ddf…4f6dbacked Yes | 62c | 29.03$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…d95cbacked No | 38c | 28.82$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.92 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | +3.9wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5af3…462bbacked Yes | 66c | 28.18$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2847…ca9fbacked Yes | 68c | 28.15$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa64c…3815backed Yes | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb54…2c07backed Yes | 78c | 25.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.22per pick | 51cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc27a…23fbbacked Yes | 63c | 24.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a07…2009backed Yes | 75c | 18.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ce…1741backed Yes | 67c | 18.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38f9…474ebacked Yes | 67c | 18.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f63…ddaebacked Yes | 66c | 18.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdff7…4d5ebacked Yes | 68c | 17.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Atlas have a Windows app live by December 31?this page
- Will Atlas have a Windows app live by October 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.