TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ukraine · resolved market

Will Ukraine join the Board of Peace?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$80,224
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$71,259

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $80,224 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 131 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ukraine
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xad42…fe63backed Yes7c5,029$335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$334.72616.7%1 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-60.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x11d5…1b17backed Yes18c4,383$788 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$788.27140%0 W · 14 L-2.5wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x08c8…1da2backed No80c3,757$2,990 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$766.62857.1%16 W · 12 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-10.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa65c…32fbbacked Yes11c2,650$283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$283944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.8wins+0.20per pick25cpaid+59.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes14c2,251$316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$315.9625311.5%29 W · 224 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-46.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x682c…17aebacked Yes6c1,919$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.265722.8%13 W · 44 L+4.3wins+0.07per pick15cpaid+10.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x641b…5433backed No79c1,820$1,438 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$381.55540%2 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick56cpaid-49.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf5e4…471abacked Yes7c1,744$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.392740.7%11 W · 16 L+5.9wins+0.22per pick19cpaid+142.3%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x98d7…bf78backed Yes1c1,685$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d29…2483backed Yes1c1,594$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.3510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc0c6…b50bbacked Yes19c1,560$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$296.311926.3%5 W · 14 L-2.5wins-0.13per pick39cpaid-16.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc1cf…9656backed No63c1,250$788 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$462.51952.6%10 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-11.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd7ea…dd4ebacked No79c1,140$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$239.861100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbaa2…2c73backed No59c1,004$593 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$410.873164.5%20 W · 11 L+2.5wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+7.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes37c1,000$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3702218.2%4 W · 18 L-2.0wins-0.09per pick27cpaid-63.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf559…f462backed No76c999.97$760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$240.291090%9 W · 1 L+2.6wins+0.26per pick64cpaid+41.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4fea…d383backed Yes7c637.21$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.8714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick18cpaid-69.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed Yes17c625.05$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.374719.1%9 W · 38 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-39.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4999…cc96backed Yes8c625$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7491…ada0backed No66c617.7$409 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.641145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick52cpaid+59.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3c35…feebbacked Yes7c600$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4260%0 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb12e…8c6cbacked Yes41c600$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2461729.4%5 W · 12 L-4.8wins-0.28per pick58cpaid-51.7%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xa0bc…d428backed Yes26c528.12$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.9326238.5%101 W · 161 L+18.2wins+0.07per pick32cpaid-7.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd5db…3c45backed No69c520.76$359 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.038936%32 W · 57 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-19.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e15…9468backed Yes23c436.65$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes8c364.95$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.931302.3%3 W · 127 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-68.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x83d7…317fbacked Yes11c348.95$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4040%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa5c2…1bbebacked No79c341$269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.893745.9%17 W · 20 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+21.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2bc8…b4dabacked Yes15c300$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.51450%7 W · 7 L+2.9wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+73.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe8a7…46c4backed Yes10c295.08$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.621747.1%8 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1719…5ceabacked No76c289.85$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.122272.7%16 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick67cpaid+18%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x39df…64a1backed No70c286.87$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.873100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+57.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x28b2…eb4fbacked No73c271.06$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.223545.7%16 W · 19 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-32.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9c3b…6b17backed Yes20c270$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.4520%1 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-65.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x79c1…497dbacked Yes24c268.26$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.283743.2%16 W · 21 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-26.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1534…ae26backed Yes6c256.17$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.9320%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9985…6afabacked No80c255.1$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.381040%4 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick34cpaid-2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0dee…fe51backed Yes40c250$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10080%0 W · 8 L-2.4wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa750…0d0fbacked Yes10c229.99$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23580%4 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.26per pick54cpaid+23%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x25b9…3058backed Yes13c220$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.82035%7 W · 13 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-50.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5fc5…610ebacked Yes7c219.54$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.673411.8%4 W · 30 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-62.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd5cc…dea4backed Yes38c201.72$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.3411647.4%55 W · 61 L+6.0wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+24%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes8c200$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151432.1%3 W · 140 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-72.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x006d…06f8backed No62c200$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick16cpaid-77%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes20c187$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.4821426.2%56 W · 158 L-7.9wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-21.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf7a4…f061backed Yes11c181.82$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+11.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No76c167.46$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.3230837.7%116 W · 192 L-18.7wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-36%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1afc…bfb7backed Yes18c166.67$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes25c164$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.0241736.2%151 W · 266 L-25.2wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-21.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3ec2…8823backed Yes16c157.93$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc157…728cbacked No65c157.72$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.93425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick50cpaid-61.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x97c2…55d6backed Yes25c150.19$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.552250%11 W · 11 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes24c148.09$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.392540%10 W · 15 L+3.2wins+0.13per pick27cpaid+26.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2200…4dbfbacked Yes17c147.06$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb2d…e9bdbacked Yes14c145.64$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd0b7…fa4bbacked Yes12c138.67$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.182240.9%9 W · 13 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+37.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8374…9149backed Yes39c134.26$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.172839.3%11 W · 17 L+0.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid-14.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes9c130.14$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.042615.4%4 W · 22 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick12cpaid+26.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e47…a510backed No79c126.58$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.58850%4 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+46.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x83a2…9452backed No67c123.33$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.72744.4%12 W · 15 L+2.0wins+0.08per pick37cpaid-18.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xebd5…094cbacked Yes17c112.04$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.0510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3d6a…9e29backed Yes18c109.11$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d42…c0f4backed Yes40c107.38$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.9540%0 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes16c100.06$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.015743.9%25 W · 32 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-15.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.229416%47 W · 247 L-53.7wins-0.18per pick34cpaid-65.8%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Yes37c100$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$371637.5%6 W · 10 L-2.2wins-0.14per pick51cpaid-44%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4a5f…e63cbacked Yes38c100$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38205%1 W · 19 L-4.4wins-0.22per pick27cpaid-93.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x088c…1590backed No72c100$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.8650%3 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3425…5698backed Yes24c100$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3202…b190backed Yes24c100$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd738…d07ebacked Yes38c100$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb8d…6e40backed Yes34c100$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34450%2 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+301.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf8d0…c8c9backed No62c100$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick52cpaid-4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f9e…dfa6backed Yes25c96$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e1e…a8fdbacked Yes34c83.24$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9fff…740fbacked No73c80$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.63100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+62%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9f2e…9061backed Yes23c80$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae5c…347fbacked Yes25c80$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-7.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5cb2…7f19backed Yes30c80$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ff2…7c02backed No63c79.78$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.789475.5%71 W · 23 L+10.9wins+0.12per pick64cpaid+15.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x477d…55a9backed Yes31c79.25$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.952433.3%8 W · 16 L-3.9wins-0.16per pick50cpaid+5.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xce70…b4f4backed No79c77.22$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.22540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-29.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce3f…67c9backed Yes36c75.06$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.083145.2%14 W · 17 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-19.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb04a…acfcbacked Yes26c72.33$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.624829.2%14 W · 34 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick24cpaid+21.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3890…41a3backed Yes24c70.68$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.961216.7%2 W · 10 L-3.0wins-0.25per pick41cpaid-75.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x31fe…5ee4backed No66c70$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+50.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6684…95d1backed No71c69.09$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.0510357.3%59 W · 44 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick56cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4992…9cd4backed Yes29c68.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201631.3%5 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-36.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x504c…86c3backed Yes30c67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdea2…308bbacked Yes17c66.15$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1120%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8963…de64backed Yes38c65.79$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2520%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8535…2024backed Yes38c65$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.7250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-36.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd366…7bcdbacked Yes31c63.75$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf70d…c6b7backed Yes35c63.23$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x300a…f137backed Yes32c60.76$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.44520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-74.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xde53…0e07backed Yes29c60$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.41323.1%3 W · 10 L-2.8wins-0.21per pick44cpaid-70.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb8e3…58edbacked Yes39c60$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.24252.4%22 W · 20 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-6.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x7854…90a5backed No68c58.81$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.826100%6 W · 0 L+2.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+94.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked Yes29c56.34$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.3410651.9%55 W · 51 L+6.5wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+4.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4a0d…2e7fbacked No71c56.34$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.34650%3 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-22.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.