Ukraine · resolved market
Will the U.K. join the Board of Peace?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6dbe4917fb2d38710e31e274d1059a9993e5d22bbddec317d32cb27a82998220
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $133,202
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $189,206
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $133,202 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb04b…a1ebbacked Yes | 24c | 3,737$899 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$899.15 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf559…f462backed No | 79c | 2,000$1,578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422.34 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.26per pick | 64cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b8…bda6backed Yes | 1c | 1,746$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b7e…81a0backed Yes | 1c | 1,719$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 8c | 1,661$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.84 | 253 | 11.5%29 W · 224 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e2c…1e67backed Yes | 2c | 1,624$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c6…b50bbacked Yes | 13c | 1,574$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.01 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 3c | 1,560$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.02 | 58 | 10.3%6 W · 52 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbaa…7688backed Yes | 15c | 1,361$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee7a…b68dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,282$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,250$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 149 | 20.8%31 W · 118 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 13c | 1,249$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.82 | 47 | 19.1%9 W · 38 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23d9…3a2ebacked Yes | 4c | 1,211$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.13 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -84.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3151…620abacked Yes | 4c | 1,073$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2825…c0e3backed No | 80c | 1,000$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.05 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 65cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed Yes | 14c | 981.95$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.88 | 110 | 50.9%56 W · 54 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 5c | 940$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 87 | 11.5%10 W · 77 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 5c | 689.08$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.18 | 214 | 26.2%56 W · 158 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 16c | 610$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0538…a2b1backed Yes | 3c | 604.62$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 575$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.53 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc553…b054backed Yes | 5c | 500$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda44…2e5abacked No | 79c | 500$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 4c | 453.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.37 | 70 | 4.3%3 W · 67 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 7c | 440.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.51 | 103 | 9.7%10 W · 93 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed Yes | 19c | 400$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 23cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf82a…d221backed Yes | 5c | 349.49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.89 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 3c | 347.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 53 | 5.7%3 W · 50 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 17c | 330.24$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.33 | 308 | 37.7%116 W · 192 L | -18.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 7c | 316.05$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.41 | 107 | 4.7%5 W · 102 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 8c | 300$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 130 | 2.3%3 W · 127 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 7c | 300$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 61 | 1.6%1 W · 60 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -95.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 7c | 300$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 51 | 0%0 W · 51 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 15c | 262.64$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.52 | 417 | 36.2%151 W · 266 L | -25.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1bdf…1b74backed No | 70c | 250$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3890…41a3backed Yes | 14c | 250$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.71 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.25per pick | 41cpaid | -75.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 18c | 217.7$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.18 | 294 | 16%47 W · 247 L | -53.7wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 9c | 200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 54 | 1.9%1 W · 53 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -95%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf25b…82d0backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -85.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc0…d528backed No | 78c | 166.67$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.67 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +67.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26b7…68a2backed Yes | 7c | 161.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9889…4839backed No | 76c | 131.74$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.74 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc330…9794backed Yes | 28c | 106.15$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4156…dcd6backed Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d0…c8c9backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf887…6b54backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5f…e63cbacked Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -4.4wins | -0.22per pick | 27cpaid | -93.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x71af…dd01backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04f5…71e9backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x626f…cdfabacked No | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 48 | 25%12 W · 36 L | -4.9wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe991…9969backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 24cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecd…2c00backed No | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25b9…3058backed Yes | 13c | 99.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb18…d006backed Yes | 16c | 93.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9682…8741backed Yes | 25c | 88.9$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa765…dbabbacked Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd021…3f0dbacked Yes | 27c | 63.89$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b0…a5fbbacked Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 74c | 51.35$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.35 | 66 | 75.8%50 W · 16 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b1f…d9c3backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 71c | 42.91$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.44 | 142 | 39.4%56 W · 86 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0018…78f9backed No | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 78c | 16.66$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6df2…4da4backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the U.K. join the Board of Peace?this page
- Will Brazil join the Board of Peace?No won
- Will China join the Board of Peace?No won
- Will Denmark join the Board of Peace?No won
- Will Finland join the Board of Peace?No won
- Will France join the Board of Peace?No won
- Will Germany join the Board of Peace?No won
- Will Hungary join the Board of Peace?Yes won
- Will India join the Board of Peace?No won
- Will Israel join the Board of Peace?Yes won
- Will Italy join the Board of Peace?No won
- Will Norway join the Board of Peace?No won
- Will Palestine join the Board of Peace?No won
- Will Russia join the Board of Peace?No won
- Will Spain join the Board of Peace?No won
- Will Sweden join the Board of Peace?No won
- Will Switzerland join the Board of Peace?No won
- Will Turkiye join the Board of Peace?Yes won
- Will Ukraine join the Board of Peace?No won
- Will the Netherlands join the Board of Peace?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.