TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x5bc0…d528

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
53
Categories scored
9
Categories below 50
4

Best Category: Fifa International, grading 59 out of 100 (+0.08 per pick).

Best Category Fifa International at 59 out of 100; worst Movies at 48.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT2263.6%14 W · 8 L+1.9wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+16.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Middle East — the 22 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$400Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+25%+$100
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$87Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+92.7%+$80.69
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$437Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$153.54
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$180Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$179.98
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$317Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT+67%+$212.48
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$21
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$479Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$479
US forces enter Iran by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$197Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$197.39
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$1,237Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,237
US forces enter Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$559Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT+27.1%+$151.59
Israel strike on Yemen by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+150.3%+$45.09
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$210Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$55.82
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$13
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$171Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$171
Trump invokes War Powers against Iran by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$14.21
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+222.6%+$33.7
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 23, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST+86.2%+$33.06
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$43Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2026, EST+143.9%+$61.32
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 20, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+51.5%+$12.52
Will Trump say "Transgender" this week? (January 25)backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST-100%-$19.28
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 17, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST+85.2%+$12.86
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$52Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST+79.6%+$41.38
All 22 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 15, 2026, EDT1855.6%10 W · 8 L+3.5wins+0.19per pick36cpaid+16.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 18 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT+217.5%+$43.49
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$43
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$12
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$16
Norway vs. England: Team to Advancebacked Norway · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$16
Will France win on 2026-07-09?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT+62.6%+$15.65
Will Morocco win on 2026-07-09?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$11
Will France vs. Morocco end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$21
Switzerland vs. Colombia: Team to Advancebacked Switzerland · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$14.08
Will Switzerland win on 2026-07-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$18
Portugal vs. Spain: Team to Advancebacked Spain · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$11.25
Mexico vs. England: Team to Advancebacked England · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$19.22
Will Argentina vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT+212.5%+$21.25
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$69Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+109.5%+$75.56
Japan vs. Sweden: Draw at halftime?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT+143.9%+$21.59
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$10.42
World Cup game relocated away from Mexico?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$160Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT+27.6%+$44.21
All 18 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved May 13, 2026, EDT560%3 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.25per pick35cpaid+71.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+67.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will India join the Board of Peace?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$53Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+106.6%+$56.5
Will the U.K. join the Board of Peace?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$130Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$36.67
All 2 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved May 12, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+34.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$501Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT+34.8%+$174.36
All 1 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved May 28, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Lol — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
LoL: KT Rolster vs T1 - Game 2 Winnerbacked KT Rolster · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.62
All 1 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$14
All 1 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved May 20, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Sister Sage die in "The Boys: Season 5"?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$76Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$75.69
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.