TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Fifa International · resolved market

Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,082,953
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,255,643

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,082,953 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,001 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x204f…5e14backed No48c307,229$148,846 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148,846.194,59540.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L-91.3wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-23.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2117…5c26backed Yes58c62,198$36,019 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,178.771,98532.5%645 W · 1,340 L-47.7wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-13.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Yes59c50,000$29,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,5002,60337.8%984 W · 1,619 L-40.7wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c3a…020bbacked Yes59c45,920$27,036 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,884.6721343.2%92 W · 121 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3dfb…abafbacked Yes59c44,444$26,222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,222.0242345.6%193 W · 230 L+10.8wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked No46c43,797$20,066 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,066.493,69636.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L-44.0wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-23.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x39d3…9ef0backed No42c37,385$15,770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,769.9329740.1%119 W · 178 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes52c36,805$19,125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,680.248,61429.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L-166.6wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-32.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa66c…cd67backed Yes57c34,889$20,058 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,830.7818047.8%86 W · 94 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-10.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6157…9fb4backed Yes56c26,319$14,818 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,501.5512254.1%66 W · 56 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed No45c21,416$9,706 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,706.414,45737.2%1,657 W · 2,800 L+31.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked No58c18,943$10,903 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,903.342,27139.5%896 W · 1,375 L+10.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc974…b33bbacked No41c16,978$6,961 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,960.8721333.3%71 W · 142 L-6.2wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-12.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked No40c16,097$6,490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,489.8574447.8%356 W · 388 L+11.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed No41c15,749$6,457 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,457.073,99224.9%994 W · 2,998 L-47.0wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-19.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked No43c14,846$6,331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,331.131,94135.5%690 W · 1,251 L-25.4wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e3a…55babacked Yes58c13,878$8,085 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,792.8115044%66 W · 84 L-8.8wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-18.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x36a7…b6e9backed No40c13,809$5,524 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,523.558046.3%37 W · 43 L+0.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid+13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e78…3945backed Yes60c12,555$7,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,054.8719529.7%58 W · 137 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-27.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f34…7684backed Yes52c12,543$6,465 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,078.3465835%230 W · 428 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-21.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf94f…9adabacked Yes56c12,441$7,018 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,423.172763%17 W · 10 L+2.1wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+27.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xadfa…324ebacked No44c12,000$5,280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,279.8529646.3%137 W · 159 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad6a…9dbdbacked No41c10,626$4,357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,356.737425.7%19 W · 55 L-7.0wins-0.09per pick35cpaid-37.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe987…f0e1backed No44c10,000$4,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,399.9638026.6%101 W · 279 L-10.0wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-21.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed Yes60c9,555$5,710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,844.932,17138.2%829 W · 1,342 L-36.7wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x620d…f8dbbacked Yes56c8,929$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,928.571100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f29…7a7ebacked Yes36c7,740$2,807 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,933.11,22443.4%531 W · 693 L-7.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-13.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed No43c7,698$3,294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,293.592,80555.1%1,546 W · 1,259 L+70.4wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e45…5b61backed Yes60c7,358$4,415 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,943.256154.1%33 W · 28 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked No42c7,140$3,033 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,033.461,87348.4%906 W · 967 L+14.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed No41c6,524$2,663 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,662.831,04443.7%456 W · 588 L+20.7wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+14.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb399…9435backed No54c6,475$3,478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,478.1728042.1%118 W · 162 L-16.5wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-16.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3fe5…8e3dbacked Yes39c5,775$2,255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,519.781233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-27.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f3c…2f57backed Yes57c5,500$3,135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,3653348.5%16 W · 17 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x82da…da33backed Yes57c5,263$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,263.163240.6%13 W · 19 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-16.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc922…2618backed No43c5,236$2,254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,253.929250.7%148 W · 144 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x224f…514abacked No43c5,187$2,256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,255.621,53649.1%754 W · 782 L+32.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x15ec…267dbacked No60c5,060$3,036 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,036.2227845.7%127 W · 151 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec54…e8c1backed Yes57c4,972$2,810 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,161.6722752.4%119 W · 108 L+7.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1af3…b3b4backed No40c4,918$1,984 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,983.6820333.5%68 W · 135 L-10.3wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-16.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed No46c4,748$2,176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,176.472,81944.5%1,255 W · 1,564 L-36.2wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec59…bb35backed Yes52c4,500$2,340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,159.9243248.4%209 W · 223 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x96ca…5a71backed Yes56c4,464$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,964.2914351.7%74 W · 69 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5072…17bebacked Yes46c4,306$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,305.8411747%55 W · 62 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed No42c4,270$1,791 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,791.453,07747%1,447 W · 1,630 L-11.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67a5…3516backed Yes59c4,137$2,441 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,696.1722441.5%93 W · 131 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-6.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x13b8…d1afbacked Yes56c4,000$2,240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,759.9712655.6%70 W · 56 L+9.9wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+13.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xedf0…a1d3backed No42c3,719$1,552 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,551.9621044.3%93 W · 117 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7349…cc3abacked Yes53c3,687$1,937 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,749.9220646.1%95 W · 111 L+12.9wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+1.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x99f0…9495backed No42c3,570$1,499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,499.3971638.4%275 W · 441 L+8.7wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+12.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3d88…fe5cbacked Yes32c3,553$1,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,403.452842.9%12 W · 16 L-2.2wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-25.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x502e…5442backed Yes57c3,510$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,509.8516746.7%78 W · 89 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf59e…f0bfbacked Yes56c3,479$1,965 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,513.310051%51 W · 49 L+0.4wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb113…8bc6backed No42c3,472$1,458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,458.1331851.9%165 W · 153 L+16.3wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbec0…9bddbacked Yes60c3,415$2,034 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,380.9162633.9%212 W · 414 L-28.6wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-37.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x23cd…a835backed Yes59c3,390$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,389.832969%20 W · 9 L+2.7wins+0.09per pick60cpaid+7.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes52c3,341$1,730 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,611.282,30737.6%867 W · 1,440 L-16.7wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-27.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked No42c3,098$1,303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,302.783,21347.2%1,517 W · 1,696 L-7.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac1c…d8b5backed Yes35c2,857$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,857.1414734%50 W · 97 L+4.6wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+18.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd09d…b15dbacked Yes53c2,830$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,330.1916549.1%81 W · 84 L+7.3wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+4.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x13d0…593dbacked Yes57c2,632$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,131.5812329.3%36 W · 87 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-16.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x8dee…412bbacked Yes58c2,586$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,086.2189443.4%388 W · 506 L+18.6wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+8.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x00c8…9ccdbacked Yes59c2,525$1,492 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,032.411,01931.6%322 W · 697 L-10.2wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7dd5…dfdebacked Yes57c2,510$1,429 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,080.672556%14 W · 11 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3233…a4ddbacked No43c2,500$1,075 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,074.965240.4%21 W · 31 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb82b…fc60backed No43c2,500$1,075 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,074.957643.4%33 W · 43 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4edd…ddf1backed Yes37c2,477$924 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,552.627034.4%93 W · 177 L+14.4wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-3.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xedc3…f923backed Yes58c2,451$1,422 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,029.435046%23 W · 27 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe9b5…f95bbacked No44c2,435$1,061 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0616031.7%19 W · 41 L-0.2wins0.00per pick32cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d60…453dbacked No64c2,356$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50065948.6%320 W · 339 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3e7…bf64backed Yes55c2,300$1,265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,034.9940343.7%176 W · 227 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb916…f248backed Yes43c2,009$860 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,149.436043.3%26 W · 34 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-13.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x82d2…beeabacked No62c2,005$1,243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,243.0916050.6%81 W · 79 L+5.6wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8ae4…273ebacked Yes58c2,000$1,156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$844.249354.8%51 W · 42 L+5.6wins+0.06per pick49cpaid-1.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb933…ab68backed Yes60c2,000$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8004727.7%13 W · 34 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-16.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x94f1…54a1backed Yes59c2,000$1,180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82012738.6%49 W · 78 L-8.2wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-22.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3e0a…b9ccbacked Yes55c2,000$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90019850.5%100 W · 98 L+10.7wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8adc…bafcbacked Yes58c2,000$1,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$839.9937754.4%205 W · 172 L+11.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x300b…f636backed Yes57c2,000$1,140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$859.9913762.8%86 W · 51 L+8.7wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+11.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa04c…9e3fbacked Yes52c1,911$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$911.254136.6%15 W · 26 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-27.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a80…11c5backed Yes51c1,890$964 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$925.7787237.8%330 W · 542 L-39.9wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-28.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0c3e…3c4cbacked Yes22c1,887$411 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,476.3638960.7%236 W · 153 L+24.3wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+10%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked No54c1,863$1,003 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,003.362,97328%831 W · 2,142 L-132.5wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-39%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc3fc…5176backed No40c1,851$739 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$739.0914344.8%64 W · 79 L-0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x31c1…bc19backed Yes56c1,786$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$785.716457.8%37 W · 27 L0.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Yes52c1,783$919 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$864.371,56339.8%622 W · 941 L-51.9wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-23.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3b2e…e228backed Yes59c1,781$1,044 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$736.585100%5 W · 0 L+2.2wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+84%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x20c6…45aebacked Yes57c1,754$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$754.3912736.2%46 W · 81 L-5.9wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-22.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbeff…e9abbacked Yes57c1,754$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$754.395747.4%27 W · 30 L+3.6wins+0.06per pick41cpaid-1.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb902…06d8backed Yes57c1,754$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$754.394564.4%29 W · 16 L+8.8wins+0.20per pick45cpaid+37.3%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xb7e7…48d5backed Yes57c1,754$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$754.3910151.5%52 W · 49 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe283…7190backed Yes57c1,737$990 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$746.8423736.3%86 W · 151 L-8.7wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-23%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1fdf…3b6cbacked Yes58c1,695$983 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$712.044334.9%15 W · 28 L-3.8wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-30.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1262…2fc9backed Yes18c1,667$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,366.6727466.4%182 W · 92 L+28.8wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+23.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x1ba2…d212backed No43c1,638$707 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$706.6758942.6%251 W · 338 L-5.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7997…5e4bbacked Yes59c1,635$965 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$670.3522452.2%117 W · 107 L-0.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75fc…0a4cbacked Yes21c1,619$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,279.0112223%28 W · 94 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-14.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd69a…d57fbacked Yes59c1,600$944 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6564231%13 W · 29 L-4.7wins-0.11per pick42cpaid-29.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked No42c1,545$649 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$648.561,94542.7%831 W · 1,114 L-11.2wins-0.01per pick43cpaid+6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb3bd…6dddbacked No44c1,500$660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6603834.2%13 W · 25 L-3.3wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-14.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 37 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.