Fifa International · resolved market
Spread: Japan (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x76c4b5bca14f3d0ae4c149fd6f52fdec678c02637595161e361b6c4a5b238336
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Swedenof Japan, Sweden
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $142,808
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $142,393
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $142,808 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Japan | 8c | 20,330$1,696 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,696.29 | 2,407 | 37.7%908 W · 1,499 L | -48.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5faf…1183backed Japan | 10c | 10,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 98 | 23.5%23 W · 75 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe987…f0e1backed Japan | 9c | 10,000$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 380 | 26.6%101 W · 279 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Japan | 10c | 8,458$832 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$831.93 | 2,439 | 29%707 W · 1,732 L | -65.3wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Japan | 6c | 6,290$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.7 | 4,457 | 37.2%1,657 W · 2,800 L | +31.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d01…27cbbacked Japan | 12c | 5,000$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$619.99 | 176 | 36.4%64 W · 112 L | +10.8wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa4c…7bfdbacked Japan | 11c | 4,339$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477 | 144 | 28.5%41 W · 103 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefce…4e4abacked Japan | 7c | 2,549$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.4 | 674 | 47.6%321 W · 353 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89dc…c012backed Japan | 8c | 2,224$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.89 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +26%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2775…3652backed Japan | 12c | 1,667$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 124 | 29%36 W · 88 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1df…8a9cbacked Japan | 12c | 1,667$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 52 | 23.1%12 W · 40 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf36e…f91cbacked Japan | 10c | 1,542$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.16 | 154 | 18.8%29 W · 125 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0823…ec6abacked Japan | 14c | 1,515$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.81 | 431 | 39%168 W · 263 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbec0…9bddbacked Japan | 6c | 1,440$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.22 | 626 | 33.9%212 W · 414 L | -28.6wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Japan | 7c | 1,096$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.99 | 2,307 | 37.6%867 W · 1,440 L | -16.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb75c…b6d3backed Japan | 11c | 1,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x81ed…59f5backed Japan | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 608 | 21.9%133 W · 475 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9865…57acbacked Japan | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 109 | 11%12 W · 97 L | -9.4wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -66%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2117…5c26backed Japan | 11c | 971$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.06 | 1,985 | 32.5%645 W · 1,340 L | -47.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78c1…473ebacked Japan | 9c | 862$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.58 | 513 | 15.6%80 W · 433 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Japan | 4c | 699.67$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 2,453 | 34.7%850 W · 1,603 L | +84.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9048…d351backed Japan | 13c | 615.38$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 148 | 41.9%62 W · 86 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Japan | 2c | 591.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 432 | 30.1%130 W · 302 L | -17.6wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -41%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ac9…92d3backed Japan | 9c | 536.52$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.29 | 226 | 22.1%50 W · 176 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Japan | 5c | 526.4$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.32 | 1,627 | 32.1%523 W · 1,104 L | +4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked Japan | 9c | 500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 372 | 37.4%139 W · 233 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa7…2723backed Japan | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 62 | 27.4%17 W · 45 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49e1…a8bdbacked Japan | 11c | 454.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 125 | 17.6%22 W · 103 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd94…6b1ebacked Japan | 4c | 412.81$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.32 | 114 | 31.6%36 W · 78 L | -9.2wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6434…72b6backed Japan | 5c | 369.16$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.46 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d7a…751abacked Japan | 8c | 333.34$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.34 | 732 | 34.6%253 W · 479 L | -22.2wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4740…fa66backed Japan | 13c | 300$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 203 | 25.6%52 W · 151 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0210…c9c7backed Japan | 12c | 300$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -40%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e7c…596cbacked Japan | 13c | 230.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 209 | 32.5%68 W · 141 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Japan | 10c | 228.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.94 | 2,634 | 32.9%867 W · 1,767 L | +43.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b50…ea47backed Japan | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 106 | 14.2%15 W · 91 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93c5…5419backed Japan | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa689…2798backed Japan | 10c | 190$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e8e…0cc4backed Japan | 12c | 183.33$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 189 | 11.1%21 W · 168 L | -9.4wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08d5…1cbbbacked Japan | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 107 | 26.2%28 W · 79 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60a5…f52ebacked Japan | 13c | 138.46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 177 | 38.4%68 W · 109 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2134…231cbacked Japan | 11c | 136.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Japan | 8c | 129.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 239 | 40.6%97 W · 142 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -21%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf527…366bbacked Japan | 11c | 122.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x751f…e4ddbacked Japan | 11c | 120$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 879 | 38.6%339 W · 540 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…5c4ebacked Japan | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 24cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6087…61e8backed Japan | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 86 | 27.9%24 W · 62 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b3…1698backed Japan | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe692…05e8backed Japan | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 82 | 25.6%21 W · 61 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa066…16aebacked Japan | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 201 | 38.3%77 W · 124 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 37 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Japan (-2.5)this page
- Japan vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Japan vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Japan vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- Japan vs. Sweden: 2nd Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Japan vs. Sweden: 2nd Half O/U 1.5Over won
- Japan vs. Sweden: 2nd Half O/U 2.5Under won
- Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score in First HalfNo won
- Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score in Second HalfYes won
- Japan vs. Sweden: Japan 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Japan vs. Sweden: Japan 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Japan vs. Sweden: Japan 2nd Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Japan vs. Sweden: Japan 2nd Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Japan vs. Sweden: Japan O/U 0.5Over won
- Japan vs. Sweden: Japan O/U 1.5Under won
- Japan vs. Sweden: Japan O/U 2.5Under won
- Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 0.5Over won
- Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5Over won
- Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5Under won
- Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5Under won
- Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5Under won
- Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5Under won
- Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5Under won
- Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 7.5Under won
- Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 8.5Under won
- Japan vs. Sweden: Sweden 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Japan vs. Sweden: Sweden 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Japan vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 0.5Over won
- Japan vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 1.5Under won
- Japan vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 2.5Under won
- Spread: Japan (-1.5)Sweden won
- Spread: Japan (-3.5)Sweden won
- Spread: Japan (-4.5)Sweden won
- Spread: Sweden (-1.5)Japan won
- Spread: Sweden (-2.5)Japan won
- Spread: Sweden (-3.5)Japan won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.