Middle East · resolved market
Will Trump say "Transgender" this week? (January 25)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe0290aa8d7e3cba02a580a076b9888a4b3f1fe9b4c3392dfd2b59b21e96ea3a5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $110,085
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $109,343
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $110,085 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfbe5…cbbbbacked No | 0c | 98,337$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 1,314$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.37 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x091f…672ebacked No | 2c | 1,085$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xceb4…fe12backed No | 38c | 1,010$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.38 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.26per pick | 46cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Yes | 62c | 800$496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +4.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd520…723dbacked No | 3c | 767.95$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 65c | 763.64$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.01 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…fa3fbacked Yes | 73c | 577.32$421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.87 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +8.9wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7661…208abacked No | 42c | 500$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.18per pick | 61cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc406…07d9backed Yes | 66c | 375.02$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129 | 103 | 54.4%56 W · 47 L | +7.3wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 31c | 199.99$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.99 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x27f0…3803backed Yes | 64c | 199.99$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +130.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 23c | 187.07$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.38 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 31c | 168.7$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.79 | 344 | 32.3%111 W · 233 L | -31.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x740b…2a88backed No | 37c | 162.05$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 29c | 158.37$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.02 | 59 | 22%13 W · 46 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb326…d18bbacked Yes | 66c | 150$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43b3…6193backed No | 30c | 120$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.2 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b2f…d8f8backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 76 | 57.9%44 W · 32 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1a…324ebacked Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 99 | 53.5%53 W · 46 L | +8.9wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb4e1…b3c6backed Yes | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe158…925dbacked No | 36c | 84.09$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3410…6ce3backed No | 30c | 65.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc0…d528backed No | 33c | 58.59$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3893…6f49backed No | 35c | 57.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed Yes | 62c | 53.22$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.22 | 161 | 73.9%119 W · 42 L | +12.6wins | +0.08per pick | 66cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8e…8db8backed Yes | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | +6.9wins | +0.12per pick | 36cpaid | +94.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4d9c…17d2backed No | 38c | 35.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "Transgender" this week? (January 25)this page
- Will Trump say "Biden's War" this week? (January 25)Yes won
- Will Trump say "Boom" or "Booming" this week? (January 25)Yes won
- Will Trump say "Covid" or "Pandemic" this week? (January 25)Yes won
- Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" this week? (January 25)Yes won
- Will Trump say "Detroit Economic Club" this week? (January 25)No won
- Will Trump say "Genius" this week? (January 25)Yes won
- Will Trump say "Great Shape" this week? (January 25)Yes won
- Will Trump say "Insane Asylum" this week? (January 25)Yes won
- Will Trump say "Liberation Day" this week? (January 25)No won
- Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" this week? (January 25)Yes won
- Will Trump say "Nasty" this week? (January 25)Yes won
- Will Trump say "Nobel" this week? (January 25)Yes won
- Will Trump say "Portugal" or "Portuguese" this week? (January 25)No won
- Will Trump say "Radical Left Lunatic" this week? (January 25)Yes won
- Will Trump say "Soleimani" this week? (January 25)Yes won
- Will Trump say "Sucker" this week? (January 25)Yes won
- Will Trump say "Television" this week? (January 25)Yes won
- Will Trump say "Too Big To Rig" this week? (January 25)No won
- Will Trump say "Venezuela On Steroids" this week? (January 25)Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.