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Middle East · resolved market

Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" this week? (January 25)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$8,828
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$7,783

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,828 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 9 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7858…ed04backed No6c1,866$110 inLost-$1102218.2%4 W · 18 L-3.8wins-0.17per pick36cpaid-73.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xad0a…afdfbacked No1c1,020$10 inLost-$10.0610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf442…2732backed No18c112.08$20 inLost-$20714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.1wins-0.30per pick44cpaid-82.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes78c69.61$54 inWon+$15.1334432.3%111 W · 233 L-31.8wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-36.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xc406…07d9backed Yes75c55.81$42 inWon+$13.9510354.4%56 W · 47 L+7.3wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+5.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6ca0…e59dbacked Yes77c46.97$36 inWon+$10.83850%19 W · 19 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f30…bb5abacked Yes80c30$24 inWon+$61100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d1a…324ebacked Yes75c19.59$15 inWon+$4.99953.5%53 W · 46 L+8.9wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+13.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2cc3…d1bcbacked Yes76c15$11 inWon+$3.61118.2%2 W · 9 L-4.0wins-0.36per pick55cpaid-76.4%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.