TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Trump say "Nasty" this week? (January 25)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$70,492
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$69,856

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $70,492 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf58c…8495backed No0c25,000$25 inLost-$2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5525…758cbacked No0c20,000$20 inLost-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7500…567fbacked No2c5,019$95 inLost-$95.032634.6%9 W · 17 L+3.1wins+0.12per pick23cpaid+91.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7858…ed04backed No13c829.34$110 inLost-$1102218.2%4 W · 18 L-3.8wins-0.17per pick36cpaid-73.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed No4c247.58$11 inLost-$10.735922%13 W · 46 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-30.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0472…c62fbacked Yes74c109.98$81 inWon+$28.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf442…2732backed No26c77.69$20 inLost-$20714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.1wins-0.30per pick44cpaid-82.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x714f…66d5backed No26c56$15 inLost-$14.569739.2%38 W · 59 L+9.5wins+0.10per pick29cpaid+46.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3893…6f49backed No37c53.61$20 inLost-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb268…45b3backed Yes74c50$37 inWon+$13666.7%4 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick66cpaid-13%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e5e…a6fbbacked No49c40.82$20 inLost-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x04bf…1e02backed Yes79c37.96$30 inWon+$7.97333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-57.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc125…87bbbacked Yes79c25.32$20 inWon+$5.32560%3 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick69cpaid-14.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes69c23.05$16 inWon+$7.1634432.3%111 W · 233 L-31.8wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-36.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes80c14.02$11 inWon+$2.8585725.2%216 W · 641 L-115.1wins-0.13per pick39cpaid-43.7%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.