TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Trump say "Soleimani" this week? (January 25)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$17,802
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$14,317

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,802 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 11 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7858…ed04backed No9c1,170$110 inLost-$1102218.2%4 W · 18 L-3.8wins-0.17per pick36cpaid-73.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed No2c779.99$15 inLost-$15.384928.7%43 W · 449 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-25.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb866…389ebacked No5c747.77$40 inLost-$40.18250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick15cpaid+108.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfaa9…8e2abacked No2c728$11 inLost-$11.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb68f…6fd2backed No10c400$40 inLost-$402050%10 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-19.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x766b…e4ffbacked No9c218.41$20 inLost-$20333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-48.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x66c1…fa3fbacked Yes77c104$80 inWon+$247856.4%44 W · 34 L+8.9wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+36.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb03a…c20dbacked No43c90.11$39 inLost-$39475%3 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.35per pick40cpaid+91.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed Yes59c59.59$35 inWon+$24.6118151.9%94 W · 87 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+14.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf9b7…60a4backed No72c49$35 inLost-$35.2822547.1%106 W · 119 L+9.5wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+25%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcb15…ce7bbacked No43c34.52$15 inLost-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.