Middle East · resolved market
Will Trump say "Venezuela On Steroids" this week? (January 25)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4cf77771339951177a9f8967e76c444dba125baf995ea101434ec1f195cb25fb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,142
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,214
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,142 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 3,819$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.45 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed25…f820backed No | 1c | 3,666$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22af…399abacked No | 17c | 1,438$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.06 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…5a2dbacked No | 8c | 1,027$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe79d…3c62backed No | 2c | 978.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…fa3fbacked Yes | 53c | 637.02$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.34 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +8.9wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb61a…27c0backed No | 2c | 547.82$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe574…c160backed No | 5c | 493.22$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a32…01efbacked No | 18c | 448.11$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55a6…9a77backed No | 16c | 428.33$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdca…badabacked No | 18c | 366.51$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a08…2e25backed Yes | 50c | 352.33$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.3 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +6.9wins | +0.22per pick | 33cpaid | +116%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 60c | 315.25$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.09 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf0…73b4backed Yes | 66c | 311.15$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05f4…9073backed No | 19c | 299.96$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.99 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc406…07d9backed Yes | 40c | 249.95$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.97 | 103 | 54.4%56 W · 47 L | +7.3wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd298…9d93backed No | 15c | 236.65$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 20c | 231.25$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.75 | 59 | 22%13 W · 46 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked No | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 147 | 7.5%11 W · 136 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed No | 6c | 200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 144 | 2.8%4 W · 140 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xceb4…fe12backed No | 57c | 176.38$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.26per pick | 46cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7150…8904backed No | 17c | 150.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 52cpaid | -74.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5525…758cbacked No | 8c | 150.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b44…264ebacked Yes | 77c | 132.98$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.01 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +9.7wins | +0.13per pick | 36cpaid | +156.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 11c | 130.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 32c | 108.13$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.69 | 344 | 32.3%111 W · 233 L | -31.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2352…4c5abacked No | 58c | 86.44$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb886…81b3backed No | 63c | 82.21$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.93 | 140 | 39.3%55 W · 85 L | +20.0wins | +0.14per pick | 25cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xec4e…d9dbbacked No | 60c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -3.6wins | -0.32per pick | 69cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xeb5e…af8dbacked Yes | 40c | 38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…477ebacked No | 59c | 30.62$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8044…68e3backed No | 65c | 30.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -37%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeff3…3953backed No | 60c | 23.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.32per pick | 61cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…345cbacked No | 58c | 18.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "Venezuela On Steroids" this week? (January 25)this page
- Will Trump say "Biden's War" this week? (January 25)Yes won
- Will Trump say "Boom" or "Booming" this week? (January 25)Yes won
- Will Trump say "Covid" or "Pandemic" this week? (January 25)Yes won
- Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" this week? (January 25)Yes won
- Will Trump say "Detroit Economic Club" this week? (January 25)No won
- Will Trump say "Genius" this week? (January 25)Yes won
- Will Trump say "Great Shape" this week? (January 25)Yes won
- Will Trump say "Insane Asylum" this week? (January 25)Yes won
- Will Trump say "Liberation Day" this week? (January 25)No won
- Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" this week? (January 25)Yes won
- Will Trump say "Nasty" this week? (January 25)Yes won
- Will Trump say "Nobel" this week? (January 25)Yes won
- Will Trump say "Portugal" or "Portuguese" this week? (January 25)No won
- Will Trump say "Radical Left Lunatic" this week? (January 25)Yes won
- Will Trump say "Soleimani" this week? (January 25)Yes won
- Will Trump say "Sucker" this week? (January 25)Yes won
- Will Trump say "Television" this week? (January 25)Yes won
- Will Trump say "Too Big To Rig" this week? (January 25)No won
- Will Trump say "Transgender" this week? (January 25)Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.