TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Trump say "Insane Asylum" this week? (January 25)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$10,710
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$7,808

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,710 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7500…567fbacked No1c1,807$19 inLost-$19.32634.6%9 W · 17 L+3.1wins+0.12per pick23cpaid+91.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc406…07d9backed Yes50c500$250 inWon+$25010354.4%56 W · 47 L+7.3wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+5.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7d07…0351backed No50c383$191 inLost-$191.352821.4%6 W · 22 L-3.8wins-0.14per pick35cpaid-56.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x66c1…fa3fbacked Yes55c287.61$159 inWon+$128.267856.4%44 W · 34 L+8.9wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+36.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No28c199.97$56 inLost-$55.7985725.2%216 W · 641 L-115.1wins-0.13per pick39cpaid-43.7%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x0a08…2e25backed Yes52c157.59$83 inWon+$75.093154.8%17 W · 14 L+6.9wins+0.22per pick33cpaid+116%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0xd45d…9af1backed No50c130.24$65 inLost-$65.1210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2352…4c5abacked No49c102.04$50 inLost-$50825%2 W · 6 L-2.4wins-0.31per pick56cpaid-56.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb886…81b3backed No49c85.05$42 inLost-$41.5114039.3%55 W · 85 L+20.0wins+0.14per pick25cpaid+63.9%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0xd9d5…783dbacked No49c78.63$38 inLost-$38.4710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes49c37.78$19 inWon+$19.0934432.3%111 W · 233 L-31.8wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-36.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xfbf6…7521backed No50c20$10 inLost-$101471.4%10 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick67cpaid+21.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a4e…b38cbacked No51c20$10 inLost-$10.21855.6%10 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a2a…d357backed Yes61c19.18$12 inWon+$7.491100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+64%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f58…129abacked No63c17.02$11 inLost-$10.721060%6 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.