TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Trump say "Television" this week? (January 25)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$10,380
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$9,239

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,380 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7858…ed04backed No10c1,072$110 inLost-$1102218.2%4 W · 18 L-3.8wins-0.17per pick36cpaid-73.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No22c238.22$52 inLost-$51.5285725.2%216 W · 641 L-115.1wins-0.13per pick39cpaid-43.7%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0xa53d…9710backed No50c160.13$80 inLost-$80.141553.3%8 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick61cpaid-12.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc808…7d41backed No48c113.53$54 inLost-$5420%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x02c7…da08backed Yes74c77.6$57 inWon+$20.491100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes73c61.92$45 inWon+$17.0216046.3%74 W · 86 L-0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid+6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a4e…b38cbacked No32c56.81$18 inLost-$18.051855.6%10 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x833f…ec4fbacked No53c36.42$19 inLost-$19.3510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x714f…66d5backed No40c35$14 inLost-$14.139739.2%38 W · 59 L+9.5wins+0.10per pick29cpaid+46.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x66c1…fa3fbacked Yes55c22$12 inWon+$9.97856.4%44 W · 34 L+8.9wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+36.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd6d8…dfebbacked Yes72c21.75$16 inWon+$6.011844.4%8 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-38.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdfd3…c89ebacked Yes61c17.12$11 inWon+$6.611100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+62.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.