TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Trump say "Covid" or "Pandemic" this week? (January 25)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$21,164
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$21,662

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,164 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5b6c…dd75backed No1c10,526$100 inLost-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d07…0351backed No58c393.84$227 inLost-$227.492821.4%6 W · 22 L-3.8wins-0.14per pick35cpaid-56.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes42c313.04$130 inWon+$18313639%53 W · 83 L+12.0wins+0.09per pick30cpaid+89.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed No5c292$13 inLost-$13.384928.7%43 W · 449 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-25.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No22c197.99$44 inLost-$43.8985725.2%216 W · 641 L-115.1wins-0.13per pick39cpaid-43.7%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x6101…1278backed Yes72c138$100 inWon+$381100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3717…b35bbacked Yes77c64.29$49 inWon+$14.791662.5%10 W · 6 L+3.1wins+0.20per pick43cpaid+24.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xb47d…fb65backed Yes79c60$48 inWon+$12.461376.9%10 W · 3 L+4.1wins+0.32per pick45cpaid+56.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x9da2…a73cbacked No57c35.18$20 inLost-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x31c0…88d3backed No57c35.09$20 inLost-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f58…129abacked No58c29$17 inLost-$16.821060%6 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2258…1451backed Yes77c24.29$19 inWon+$5.591100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b8b…713bbacked No44c24$11 inLost-$10.651323.1%3 W · 10 L-2.0wins-0.15per pick38cpaid-62.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x291c…9ab7backed Yes55c21.82$12 inWon+$9.821100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7150…8904backed No57c21.05$12 inLost-$12520%1 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.32per pick52cpaid-74.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfdbb…99bcbacked No68c15.99$11 inLost-$10.8710%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.