Middle East · resolved market
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" this week? (January 25)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x68fe5340cc8b05e6880337db2733e7e0cd3e887a83b0dfea111821415dcf7569
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,117
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,266
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,117 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5039…946dbacked No | 70c | 1,342$942 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$942.01 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Yes | 31c | 1,000$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$690.48 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +4.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba4…f8c2backed Yes | 53c | 622.2$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.36 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…adcabacked Yes | 31c | 608.24$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$421 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +82.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa35b…60e9backed Yes | 36c | 537.32$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.35 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7661…208abacked No | 69c | 500$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.48 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.18per pick | 61cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc406…07d9backed No | 69c | 399.98$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.99 | 103 | 54.4%56 W · 47 L | +7.3wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 54c | 375$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.18 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8e…8db8backed Yes | 27c | 371.45$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.01 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | +6.9wins | +0.12per pick | 36cpaid | +94.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3068…083dbacked No | 61c | 329.03$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.06 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d07…0351backed No | 68c | 250.48$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.8 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -3.8wins | -0.14per pick | 35cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 18c | 136.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.77 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf057…d9a6backed Yes | 34c | 119.25$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +198.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 30c | 115.49$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.99 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc35d…8accbacked Yes | 31c | 112.9$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +222.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf2e…c972backed Yes | 31c | 111.24$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +222.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 32c | 104.98$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.86 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6606…1338backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +12%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 58c | 80.55$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.93 | 161 | 73.9%119 W · 42 L | +12.6wins | +0.08per pick | 66cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3141…552cbacked No | 68c | 74.63$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.53 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd34b…0004backed Yes | 30c | 71.45$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.02 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb4…57acbacked Yes | 63c | 67.05$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4172…ac4abacked Yes | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.52 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f58…129abacked Yes | 60c | 62$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf946…d542backed Yes | 40c | 59.88$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +148.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3147…61bdbacked Yes | 40c | 50.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +152.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5aa…c200backed No | 68c | 49.97$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.98 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 65cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 32c | 49.17$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.44 | 59 | 22%13 W · 46 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e77…8cbebacked Yes | 43c | 46.49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…cf97backed No | 53c | 45.51$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.12 | 124 | 33.1%41 W · 83 L | -12.5wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9077…cf00backed Yes | 44c | 45.19$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.19 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +82.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5cbf…9a4abacked Yes | 28c | 43.55$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +215.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd53c…151fbacked No | 64c | 40.52$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a1d…a91ebacked No | 66c | 37.03$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x852a…3188backed No | 75c | 36$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 43 | 72.1%31 W · 12 L | +7.0wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x99cd…1bf6backed Yes | 33c | 35.8$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +205.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5eda…d453backed Yes | 34c | 35.29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.29 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +4.0wins | +0.17per pick | 46cpaid | +54.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcef7…99a3backed Yes | 43c | 30.3$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +133.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7e…6be6backed No | 66c | 30.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9237…d45bbacked Yes | 34c | 30.08$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +197.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92c8…0c5bbacked No | 73c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 66cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a63…9eb1backed Yes | 40c | 27.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.38 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 36cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7367…cc69backed No | 67c | 21.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x359e…6a0fbacked Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd455…547bbacked No | 58c | 19.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0dc…3944backed No | 62c | 19.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f56…b5dfbacked No | 65c | 16.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c76…5895backed No | 66c | 16.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" this week? (January 25)this page
- Will Trump say "Biden's War" this week? (January 25)Yes won
- Will Trump say "Boom" or "Booming" this week? (January 25)Yes won
- Will Trump say "Covid" or "Pandemic" this week? (January 25)Yes won
- Will Trump say "Detroit Economic Club" this week? (January 25)No won
- Will Trump say "Genius" this week? (January 25)Yes won
- Will Trump say "Great Shape" this week? (January 25)Yes won
- Will Trump say "Insane Asylum" this week? (January 25)Yes won
- Will Trump say "Liberation Day" this week? (January 25)No won
- Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" this week? (January 25)Yes won
- Will Trump say "Nasty" this week? (January 25)Yes won
- Will Trump say "Nobel" this week? (January 25)Yes won
- Will Trump say "Portugal" or "Portuguese" this week? (January 25)No won
- Will Trump say "Radical Left Lunatic" this week? (January 25)Yes won
- Will Trump say "Soleimani" this week? (January 25)Yes won
- Will Trump say "Sucker" this week? (January 25)Yes won
- Will Trump say "Television" this week? (January 25)Yes won
- Will Trump say "Too Big To Rig" this week? (January 25)No won
- Will Trump say "Transgender" this week? (January 25)Yes won
- Will Trump say "Venezuela On Steroids" this week? (January 25)Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.