TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Trump say "Portugal" or "Portuguese" this week? (January 25)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$19,835
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$20,454

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,835 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb35a…c452backed No70c1,159$813 inWon+$346.28850%4 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.15per pick35cpaid-16.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb68f…6fd2backed Yes11c393.81$43 inLost-$43.322050%10 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-19.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes22c324.64$71 inLost-$71.427012.9%9 W · 61 L-6.5wins-0.09per pick22cpaid-60.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed Yes25c241.18$61 inLost-$61.485922%13 W · 46 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-30.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ad1…6d88backed No76c212.76$163 inWon+$50.18450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-28.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2765…adcabacked Yes50c122.18$61 inLost-$61.46366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.25per pick42cpaid+82.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes27c100.91$27 inLost-$27.0385725.2%216 W · 641 L-115.1wins-0.13per pick39cpaid-43.7%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes28c83.12$23 inLost-$22.8889617.1%153 W · 743 L-57.2wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes20c78.51$16 inLost-$15.6316046.3%74 W · 86 L-0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid+6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30de…1f9dbacked Yes48c72.6$35 inLost-$351752.9%9 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+10.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x31ec…ab04backed Yes44c68.7$30 inLost-$3020%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8975…ffe6backed No79c63.24$50 inWon+$13.116173.9%119 W · 42 L+12.6wins+0.08per pick66cpaid+10.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x714f…66d5backed No50c49.6$25 inWon+$24.89739.2%38 W · 59 L+9.5wins+0.10per pick29cpaid+46.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked No70c40$28 inWon+$12.1336634.4%126 W · 240 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-14.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf08…cf97backed Yes33c35.21$12 inLost-$11.6112433.1%41 W · 83 L-12.5wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-28.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x05be…78d0backed No65c30.69$20 inWon+$10.699257.6%53 W · 39 L+7.0wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd28b…fdf5backed No66c26.09$17 inWon+$8.87425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-62.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x320e…f69cbacked No67c15.31$10 inWon+$5.05250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-25.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8985…3032backed No69c15$10 inWon+$4.65475%3 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick75cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.