TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Trump say "Genius" this week? (January 25)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$9,851
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$9,519

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,851 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 11 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7858…ed04backed No13c842.71$110 inLost-$1102218.2%4 W · 18 L-3.8wins-0.17per pick36cpaid-73.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x66c1…fa3fbacked Yes68c314.07$213 inWon+$100.867856.4%44 W · 34 L+8.9wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+36.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No22c177.94$39 inLost-$39.0985725.2%216 W · 641 L-115.1wins-0.13per pick39cpaid-43.7%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x05f4…9073backed No21c100$21 inLost-$211827.8%5 W · 13 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick22cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d07…0351backed No44c100$44 inLost-$442821.4%6 W · 22 L-3.8wins-0.14per pick35cpaid-56.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf097…3d5fbacked Yes53c47.52$25 inWon+$22.521163.6%7 W · 4 L+2.5wins+0.23per pick41cpaid+77.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x689c…f9adbacked Yes53c41.63$22 inWon+$19.63728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick22cpaid-52.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No47c34.85$16 inLost-$16.2934432.3%111 W · 233 L-31.8wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-36.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x2420…ce7fbacked No60c30$18 inLost-$18922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.1wins-0.23per pick45cpaid-51%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8dfc…8f08backed Yes54c22.22$12 inWon+$10.221100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6207…18c3backed No64c16.36$10 inLost-$10.4710%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.