TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xf097…3d5f

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
50
Categories scored
12
Categories below 50
8

Best Category: Middle East, grading 58 out of 100 (+0.07 per pick).

Best Category Middle East at 58 out of 100; worst Us Politics at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Feb 28, 2026, EST1163.6%7 W · 4 L+2.5wins+0.23per pick41cpaid+77.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
Middle East — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+119.8%+$31.14
U.S. x Iran Military Engagement by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$41Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+64.8%+$26.26
Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+173.5%+$52.04
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$41
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$51.72
Will the US strike Somalia next?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2026, EST-100%-$15
Will Trump say "Genius" this week? (January 25)backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST+90.1%+$22.52
Israel strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST-100%-$20
US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST+107%+$27.27
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$120Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST+31.6%+$37.94
US strike on Syria by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST+669.2%+$76.37
All 11 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Jan 25, 2026, EST1145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-11.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Premier League — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$155Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST-100%-$155.19
Will AFC Bournemouth vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2026, EST-100%-$40.04
Will Burnley FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2026, EST+300%+$30
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-01-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2026, EST-100%-$30
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$42Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2026, EST+26.6%+$11.22
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST-100%-$15
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-03?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+69.5%+$13.9
Will Leeds United FC win on 2025-12-28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST-100%-$32
Will Chelsea FC vs. Aston Villa FC end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 27, 2025, EST-100%-$14.05
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2025-12-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 27, 2025, EST+54.3%+$24.44
Will Liverpool FC win on 2025-12-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 27, 2025, EST+26.1%+$10.44
All 11 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Feb 2, 2026, EST922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-58.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be between 400m and 440m by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$80.32
Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be between 440m and 480m by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be less than 400m by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$224Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST+84.9%+$189.94
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST-100%-$42.2
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will "Marty Supreme" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 19m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$117Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$116.75
Will "Marty Supreme" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 25m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$61Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST+85.2%+$52.25
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 90m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$94Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST-100%-$94.01
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 90m and 101m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$207Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST-100%-$207
All 9 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jan 20, 2026, EST540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-32%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Celtics vs. Pistonsbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST+75.4%+$18.86
Warriors vs. Raptorsbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST-100%-$63.38
Nuggets vs. Magicbacked Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 27, 2025, EST+64.6%+$15.39
Pistons vs. Mavericksbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST-100%-$10.75
Lakers vs. Jazzbacked Jazz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST-100%-$10.28
All 5 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Jan 25, 2026, EST450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-18.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
La Liga — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved Jan 21, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-29.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Champions League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST+40.7%+$15.07
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST-100%-$13.1
All 2 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Dec 29, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-33.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Zimbabwe vs. South Africa end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will Angola vs. Egypt end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$63Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2025, EST+33.1%+$20.93
All 2 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Dec 28, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NFL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Eagles vs. Billsbacked Bills · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST-100%-$65.05
Texans vs. Chargersbacked Chargers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 27, 2025, EST-100%-$40.59
All 2 picks, newest first.
Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Jan 17, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+121.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-01-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST+121.6%+$57.97
All 1 picks, newest first.
Serie A Inactivelast resolved Jan 23, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Serie A — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-01-23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2026, EST+26.6%+$8.87
All 1 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Dec 20, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Boxing — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST-100%-$11
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 3, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US government shutdown Saturday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.