TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Eagles vs. Bills

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Eaglesof Eagles, Bills
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,623,888
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$5,429,743

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,623,888 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,249 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x33f6…e0debacked Eagles39c446,775$173,742 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$273,032.631030%3 W · 7 L-2.0wins-0.20per pick50cpaid-41.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xfa21…1438backed Eagles45c333,494$149,576 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183,917.766459.4%38 W · 26 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+4.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d3b…c46bbacked Bills61c263,027$160,447 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160,446.5311145.9%51 W · 60 L-0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ff2…dbbdbacked Eagles39c216,667$84,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132,166.633767.6%25 W · 12 L+5.7wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+32.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5350…2fdabacked Bills61c187,085$114,421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114,421.034250%21 W · 21 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+12.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8ca8…bf49backed Bills51c185,461$94,969 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94,969.51936.8%7 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Bills61c130,263$79,460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79,460.486764.2%43 W · 24 L+9.7wins+0.14per pick50cpaid+35.3%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x2643…39aebacked Bills26c126,821$32,684 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32,683.722065%13 W · 7 L+3.3wins+0.17per pick48cpaid+44.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x37e4…c991backed Bills60c125,000$75,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75,0009359.1%55 W · 38 L+10.2wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+22.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb889…a430backed Bills61c106,800$65,148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65,1483850%19 W · 19 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Eagles72c62,565$44,930 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,634.9730043.7%131 W · 169 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-15.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x56c9…0d9ebacked Eagles72c61,882$44,797 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,084.153070%21 W · 9 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick67cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Bills62c60,000$37,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37,20024652%128 W · 118 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Bills26c48,532$12,699 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,698.9986547.9%414 W · 451 L-6.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Eagles39c48,358$18,660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29,698.324957%142 W · 107 L+12.6wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+12.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Eagles44c47,969$21,152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,817.5883147.8%397 W · 434 L+13.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Eagles68c46,388$31,645 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,743.5473651.2%377 W · 359 L+25.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x68dd…f0b2backed Bills61c40,000$24,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,399.9216051.9%83 W · 77 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc58d…9373backed Bills61c37,860$23,095 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,094.69245.7%42 W · 50 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d19…733abacked Bills47c33,515$15,774 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,773.581957.9%11 W · 8 L+1.9wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+10.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x21ff…5e2abacked Eagles46c31,161$14,334 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,826.71127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-41.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc9df…249ebacked Bills43c30,554$13,199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,199.5714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.0wins-0.28per pick43cpaid-68.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Eagles72c30,011$21,735 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,275.3668446.1%315 W · 369 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-6.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x64b5…7543backed Eagles39c30,000$11,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,299.9514342%60 W · 83 L+6.9wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+10.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Bills22c28,751$6,284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,283.7420026%52 W · 148 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-29.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Bills57c28,650$16,342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,341.7111544.3%51 W · 64 L-6.9wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-7.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0e8f…52f4backed Eagles61c28,638$17,469 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,168.93650%3 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+63%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x685d…22d6backed Eagles76c27,516$20,929 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,586.657259.7%43 W · 29 L-0.1wins0.00per pick60cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Bills60c27,177$16,310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,309.819152.9%101 W · 90 L+0.7wins0.00per pick53cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Bills29c26,868$7,779 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,779.2427348.7%133 W · 140 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x88a2…d974backed Eagles39c26,154$10,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,953.8513142%55 W · 76 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f1a…6dc0backed Eagles39c25,000$9,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,2507051.4%36 W · 34 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x65cd…1e0bbacked Eagles75c24,080$18,137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,943.391752.9%9 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-8.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Eagles64c23,741$15,266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,475.4450242.4%213 W · 289 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-10.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc2ae…2a5fbacked Bills60c22,250$13,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,3503745.9%17 W · 20 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick51cpaid+3.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xefc9…b337backed Eagles38c20,896$7,892 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,004.129754.6%53 W · 44 L+9.1wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+13%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa07d…9871backed Bills3c20,600$542 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5428650%43 W · 43 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbf3…b218backed Eagles61c20,170$12,369 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,801.191250%6 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd36…a8acbacked Eagles61c20,047$12,253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,793.496645.5%30 W · 36 L-4.4wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-17.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4534…f867backed Bills48c20,000$9,635 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,635.352941.4%12 W · 17 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-10.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x07c8…2696backed Bills26c19,364$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,0005957.6%34 W · 25 L+7.1wins+0.12per pick46cpaid+29.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Eagles71c18,570$13,115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,454.8831543.2%136 W · 179 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-14.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Eagles60c18,409$11,112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,296.7127644.2%122 W · 154 L-7.6wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-13%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Eagles75c18,156$13,599 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,557.6119235.4%68 W · 124 L-0.6wins0.00per pick36cpaid-35%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5677…2ce9backed Eagles77c17,766$13,613 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,152.781866.7%12 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick63cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Eagles62c17,004$10,570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,434.1123244.4%103 W · 129 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-14.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd4da…3175backed Bills61c16,994$10,366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,366.34362.8%27 W · 16 L+4.3wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+24%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd776…ffebbacked Eagles52c16,000$8,284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,715.963560%21 W · 14 L+2.5wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+16.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5da4…e203backed Bills20c15,000$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,0003548.6%17 W · 18 L+2.6wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+21.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7f5a…9ecdbacked Bills25c13,765$3,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,4005038%19 W · 31 L+4.0wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+7.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Bills55c13,670$7,519 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,518.6831240.7%127 W · 185 L-22.0wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-16.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xc17f…50aabacked Eagles70c13,450$9,381 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,068.9911254.5%61 W · 51 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x68df…4815backed Eagles55c13,291$7,331 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,960.1518156.9%103 W · 78 L+11.8wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+11.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Eagles70c13,044$9,078 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,965.975852.5%398 W · 360 L+21.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7b88…5d08backed Bills26c12,854$3,339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,339.1718650%93 W · 93 L+9.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+14.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Bills58c12,564$7,287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,287.281,19649.9%597 W · 599 L+1.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8366…21ebbacked Eagles40c12,500$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,5001258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+16.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Bills58c12,052$7,015 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,014.9356852.3%297 W · 271 L+26.3wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+6.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6dae…4688backed Eagles75c12,000$9,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,0003100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x83ec…a3fabacked Bills45c11,991$5,447 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,446.810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Bills34c11,533$3,872 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,872.0711643.1%50 W · 66 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-15.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d1c…f13cbacked Eagles62c11,479$7,064 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,415.663043.3%13 W · 17 L-5.3wins-0.18per pick61cpaid-31.7%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x5077…4e7cbacked Bills23c10,641$2,454 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,453.612740.7%11 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-17.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a7e…fce4backed Eagles42c10,600$4,427 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,172.954544.4%20 W · 25 L+6.4wins+0.14per pick30cpaid+37.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Eagles70c10,334$7,239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,094.824555.6%25 W · 20 L+5.9wins+0.13per pick42cpaid+6.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf782…6849backed Bills60c10,152$6,129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,129.284146.3%19 W · 22 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-8.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x27f2…702cbacked Eagles72c10,091$7,231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,859.499359.1%55 W · 38 L-6.8wins-0.07per pick67cpaid-12.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf410…ca73backed Bills61c10,000$6,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,1005536.4%20 W · 35 L-3.3wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-12.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8e68…d99bbacked Bills60c10,000$6,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,00013560%81 W · 54 L+14.7wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+21.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x97e1…017bbacked Bills61c9,999$6,099 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,099.397655.3%42 W · 34 L+5.0wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x92b1…6695backed Bills62c9,512$5,898 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,897.71136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Bills56c9,034$5,047 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,047.2153348.4%258 W · 275 L+1.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf395…8e3cbacked Bills38c9,024$3,439 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,439.393141.9%13 W · 18 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick38cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd4a3…0848backed Bills22c9,009$1,982 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,9824252.4%22 W · 20 L+2.8wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+10.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1496…a429backed Bills57c8,820$5,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,020.1727454.7%150 W · 124 L+13.3wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+11.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb0e3…29ebbacked Eagles66c8,800$5,793 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,006.811573.3%11 W · 4 L+1.9wins+0.12per pick61cpaid+21.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe7a9…be15backed Bills23c8,777$2,017 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,017.391258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.11per pick47cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Bills58c8,523$4,966 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,965.7721254.2%115 W · 97 L+5.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c2f…3794backed Bills27c8,493$2,270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,2708128.4%23 W · 58 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-11.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x98f7…b3e4backed Bills26c8,272$2,151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,150.832030%6 W · 14 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-38.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x34cd…9675backed Eagles75c7,795$5,846 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,948.751580%12 W · 3 L+3.2wins+0.21per pick59cpaid+47.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Eagles41c7,752$3,182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,569.51,06551.3%546 W · 519 L+25.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7509…4b9dbacked Eagles39c7,692$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,692.313630.6%11 W · 25 L-3.6wins-0.10per pick41cpaid-24.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf28e…cab2backed Eagles64c7,578$4,825 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,753.795042%21 W · 29 L-3.1wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-28.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb525…bdc7backed Bills55c7,389$4,064 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,064.043953.8%21 W · 18 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+15.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf5d1…cdc9backed Bills39c7,383$2,879 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,879.362626.9%7 W · 19 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick28cpaid+15.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x48be…73a8backed Eagles41c7,369$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,369.345650%28 W · 28 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-0.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7a88…41ccbacked Eagles40c7,000$2,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,2004440.9%18 W · 26 L-2.5wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-24.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x445e…9be0backed Eagles43c6,870$2,984 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,886.4826650.8%135 W · 131 L+1.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x19ff…d0d0backed Eagles41c6,786$2,785 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,000.714240.5%17 W · 25 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb8c4…7385backed Eagles47c6,583$3,077 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,505.6311139.6%44 W · 67 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-14.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe9af…7807backed Bills25c6,568$1,665 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,665.18825%2 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-37.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd289…079fbacked Bills26c6,538$1,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,7001747.1%8 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca3f…8078backed Eagles44c6,451$2,855 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,595.5114951%76 W · 73 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+10.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a32…0086backed Bills61c6,450$3,935 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,934.578551.8%44 W · 41 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Eagles74c6,371$4,737 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,633.7160049.3%296 W · 304 L+21.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+3.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Eagles65c6,203$4,037 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,166.3523850.8%121 W · 117 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4599…d638backed Bills33c6,128$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,000333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-45.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x14e3…ce1fbacked Eagles69c5,828$3,997 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,831.322100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+72.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9af8…0014backed Bills37c5,656$2,069 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,069.24250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-25.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.