NFL · resolved market
Eagles vs. Bills: O/U 44.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1d7b47bf7b45bc84e987cfc5e8c579edf1a771c6e285fd164f1da7dd4f73beea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $88,709
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $98,557
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $88,709 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1d1a…0df6backed Over | 52c | 24,379$12,576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,575.97 | 168 | 60.7%102 W · 66 L | +18.7wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Over | 53c | 23,106$12,246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,246.24 | 312 | 40.7%127 W · 185 L | -22.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Under | 48c | 17,260$8,285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,975.2 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 47c | 12,545$5,896 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,648.92 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x801e…ad90backed Over | 45c | 8,000$3,580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,580 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87b6…4ababacked Under | 49c | 6,122$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,122.45 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 47c | 5,519$2,607 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,912.73 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 53c | 5,089$2,697 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,391.93 | 736 | 51.2%377 W · 359 L | +25.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd903…bf9dbacked Over | 51c | 3,000$1,530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,530 | 154 | 46.8%72 W · 82 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b22…c59cbacked Under | 51c | 3,000$1,529 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,470.5 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…34a8backed Under | 59c | 2,729$1,610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,118.81 | 196 | 51.5%101 W · 95 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Under | 49c | 2,502$1,223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,278.82 | 111 | 39.6%44 W · 67 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked Under | 49c | 2,500$1,225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,275 | 152 | 52.6%80 W · 72 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Over | 52c | 2,500$1,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,300 | 192 | 40.1%77 W · 115 L | -16.2wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Under | 48c | 1,503$721 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$781.56 | 94 | 47.9%45 W · 49 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c8…44fbbacked Under | 49c | 1,500$735 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$765 | 148 | 37.2%55 W · 93 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 48c | 1,168$561 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$606.74 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 49c | 1,046$513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$532.7 | 394 | 47.7%188 W · 206 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd51b…9606backed Under | 49c | 1,020$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.41 | 67 | 38.8%26 W · 41 L | -7.8wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x08fe…aedfbacked Under | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4673…d99bbacked Under | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 285 | 56.5%161 W · 124 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0775…eca8backed Over | 51c | 980.39$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +4.0wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 50c | 902$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Over | 52c | 867$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.84 | 266 | 49.6%132 W · 134 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 51c | 820.28$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.14 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7851…d471backed Over | 53c | 800$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.5 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e57…21cbbacked Over | 52c | 750$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Under | 48c | 586.54$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305 | 358 | 48.6%174 W · 184 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4138…6a24backed Over | 50c | 526.52$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.26 | 52 | 65.4%34 W · 18 L | +5.1wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8052…1124backed Over | 52c | 512$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.24 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ed4…4547backed Under | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 124 | 45.2%56 W · 68 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…f8bebacked Under | 51c | 408.16$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 194 | 59.3%115 W · 79 L | +15.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Over | 50c | 373.07$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.6 | 346 | 52.9%183 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 52c | 352.51$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.73 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…a51bbacked Under | 49c | 300$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153 | 234 | 47.9%112 W · 122 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35f9…e09dbacked Over | 53c | 286.78$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.92 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -4.6wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0539…70f9backed Under | 59c | 271.19$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.19 | 62 | 25.8%16 W · 46 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6036…d2ccbacked Under | 47c | 258.32$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.91 | 121 | 51.2%62 W · 59 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53b0…4daabacked Under | 49c | 204.1$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.09 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 594 | 53.7%319 W · 275 L | +24.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87ae…811bbacked Over | 52c | 176.92$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Under | 48c | 145.83$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.83 | 280 | 47.5%133 W · 147 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f41…5cb3backed Under | 48c | 120$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.4 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +4.1wins | +0.29per pick | 49cpaid | +58.1%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4465…baafbacked Over | 52c | 114.55$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.1 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2838…32bbbacked Under | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 148 | 60.8%90 W · 58 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e46…0742backed Over | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc81a…c368backed Under | 47c | 90$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.7 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +61.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcb87…88d1backed Under | 48c | 88$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.76 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 50c | 81.48$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.47 | 532 | 53%282 W · 250 L | +19.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x844d…3059backed Over | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3cee…0ad1backed Over | 53c | 66.04$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Under | 49c | 61.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.79 | 209 | 44.5%93 W · 116 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…530fbacked Over | 51c | 60.6$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +5.5wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 52c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 600 | 49.3%296 W · 304 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…c47fbacked Over | 48c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 101 | 55.4%56 W · 45 L | +5.9wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd53…a861backed Under | 48c | 57$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.64 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +3.0wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5c57…5b16backed Over | 49c | 52.21$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.58 | 195 | 43.6%85 W · 110 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Under | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 257 | 44.4%114 W · 143 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c6c…ce09backed Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 149 | 51%76 W · 73 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84fb…44f3backed Over | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ad…5a42backed Under | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe622…18cabacked Over | 51c | 39.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfaea…a809backed Over | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +4.2wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6061…1ff7backed Over | 52c | 37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.9wins | -0.41per pick | 55cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x254a…eef8backed Over | 51c | 34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0dcf…4028backed Over | 52c | 34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 54cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb570…25dbbacked Over | 52c | 33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32f4…c885backed Under | 50c | 31.24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.49 | 310 | 32.6%101 W · 209 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Over | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 153 | 53.6%82 W · 71 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Under | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 127 | 56.7%72 W · 55 L | +8.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe6dd…0accbacked Over | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 59 | 57.6%34 W · 25 L | +7.8wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…bbe8backed Over | 52c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.35per pick | 55cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Eagles vs. Bills: O/U 44.5this page
- 1H Spread: Bills (-0.5)Eagles won
- Eagles vs. BillsEagles won
- Eagles vs. Bills: 1H MoneylineEagles won
- Eagles vs. Bills: 1H O/U 21.5Under won
- Eagles vs. Bills: O/U 34.5Under won
- Eagles vs. Bills: O/U 37.5Under won
- Eagles vs. Bills: O/U 43.5Under won
- Eagles vs. Bills: O/U 45.5Under won
- Spread: Bills (-1.5)Eagles won
- Spread: Bills (-2.5)Eagles won
- Spread: Bills (-3.5)Eagles won
- Spread: Eagles (-6.5)Bills won
- Spread: Eagles (-7.5)Bills won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.