NFL · resolved market
Eagles vs. Bills: O/U 45.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x42727ff1c0a9a41ce16307d060b453415888214a2363c7ec8893fb80f19885d4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,633
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,703
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,633 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xefc9…b337backed Under | 52c | 6,675$3,471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,203.84 | 97 | 54.6%53 W · 44 L | +9.1wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +13%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 48c | 6,175$2,964 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,963.84 | 513 | 52.2%268 W · 245 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 48c | 6,175$2,964 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,963.84 | 544 | 51.7%281 W · 263 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8214…ef72backed Under | 52c | 3,963$2,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,902.81 | 83 | 50.6%42 W · 41 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 52c | 2,174$1,129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,045.34 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x827a…8a2bbacked Over | 49c | 1,100$539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$539 | 155 | 55.5%86 W · 69 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 46c | 866.09$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.4 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4673…d99bbacked Under | 54c | 800$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368 | 285 | 56.5%161 W · 124 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd903…bf9dbacked Over | 47c | 675$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.25 | 154 | 46.8%72 W · 82 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Under | 51c | 567$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.83 | 314 | 50%157 W · 157 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb820…cbe7backed Under | 51c | 535$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.15 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0944…6771backed Under | 54c | 389.45$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.15 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc210…39fcbacked Under | 53c | 375$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.25 | 66 | 63.6%42 W · 24 L | +9.7wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb338…606ebacked Over | 49c | 310$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.9 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa86c…6ec8backed Over | 48c | 307.91$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.59 | 50 | 32%16 W · 34 L | +5.5wins | +0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked Under | 53c | 300$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141 | 169 | 57.4%97 W · 72 L | +15.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Over | 49c | 275$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.75 | 192 | 40.1%77 W · 115 L | -16.2wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed Under | 51c | 273$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.77 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Over | 46c | 218.18$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.36 | 346 | 52.9%183 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…8919backed Over | 49c | 204.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.45 | 110 | 47.3%52 W · 58 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Under | 54c | 200$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 594 | 53.7%319 W · 275 L | +24.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4970…21f6backed Under | 51c | 138$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.62 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…c47fbacked Over | 40c | 120$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 101 | 55.4%56 W · 45 L | +5.9wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x102f…9b6ebacked Over | 49c | 112$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.88 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x216f…9b1ebacked Over | 49c | 108$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.92 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x256b…cd5dbacked Under | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 84 | 54.8%46 W · 38 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89ad…5e22backed Over | 48c | 97$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.56 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +22%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 48c | 95.92$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.04 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 46c | 95.34$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.79 | 532 | 53%282 W · 250 L | +19.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa521…4599backed Over | 49c | 93$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.57 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +38%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68e0…a3a6backed Over | 49c | 78$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.22 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2838…32bbbacked Under | 51c | 75$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.75 | 148 | 60.8%90 W · 58 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 52c | 73.19$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.13 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4f…243cbacked Over | 49c | 66$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.34 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed3f…0ab8backed Over | 48c | 54$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.92 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -3.4wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf86a…9ed1backed Under | 51c | 53$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.83 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d9…a94bbacked Over | 48c | 52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Over | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 243 | 52.7%128 W · 115 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3891…baa4backed Under | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6162…e856backed Under | 52c | 48$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.15 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06f4…758dbacked Under | 51c | 45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.05 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…71ddbacked Over | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 177 | 41.8%74 W · 103 L | -10.8wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5f…3de3backed Over | 49c | 43$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.07 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +4.1wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6d78…4756backed Under | 51c | 42$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.58 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4465…baafbacked Over | 48c | 41.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68e8…4facbacked Under | 51c | 41$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.09 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 55cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd253…14d9backed Under | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.33per pick | 47cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77f5…353ebacked Under | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 32 | 71.9%23 W · 9 L | +7.4wins | +0.23per pick | 49cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc94d…2b20backed Over | 49c | 37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.13 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd104…0c60backed Over | 49c | 36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x663b…e26cbacked Under | 51c | 34$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.66 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97de…15eabacked Under | 52c | 33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.84 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 53cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6393…dde9backed Under | 51c | 31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.19 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Under | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 127 | 56.7%72 W · 55 L | +8.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e85…d253backed Under | 52c | 29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e02…c5f2backed Under | 51c | 28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.72 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +53%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2342…d7cebacked Under | 51c | 27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.23 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb717…a67fbacked Over | 49c | 26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe13a…6bb5backed Under | 51c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce9b…0bc0backed Under | 51c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +3.6wins | +0.30per pick | 53cpaid | +57%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5df7…a8edbacked Under | 51c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf33d…1969backed Under | 51c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Under | 50c | 21.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.97 | 209 | 44.5%93 W · 116 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc13f…5057backed Under | 52c | 20.25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 58cpaid | -29%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca65…6746backed Under | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +40%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3e…390fbacked Under | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 54c | 19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 342 | 47.4%162 W · 180 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Eagles vs. Bills: O/U 45.5this page
- 1H Spread: Bills (-0.5)Eagles won
- Eagles vs. BillsEagles won
- Eagles vs. Bills: 1H MoneylineEagles won
- Eagles vs. Bills: 1H O/U 21.5Under won
- Eagles vs. Bills: O/U 34.5Under won
- Eagles vs. Bills: O/U 37.5Under won
- Eagles vs. Bills: O/U 43.5Under won
- Eagles vs. Bills: O/U 44.5Under won
- Spread: Bills (-1.5)Eagles won
- Spread: Bills (-2.5)Eagles won
- Spread: Bills (-3.5)Eagles won
- Spread: Eagles (-6.5)Bills won
- Spread: Eagles (-7.5)Bills won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.