NFL · resolved market

Eagles vs. Bills: 1H Moneyline

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1364efdc14c10fbec0bdf3517d55bd05159faa7bb3079cc7e39c2844696ef50c

Rebuilt 10 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Eaglesof Eagles, Bills
Resolved: Dec 28, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $34,014
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $49,861

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,014 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NFL
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x07c8…2696backed Eagles	44c	15,858$7,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8,857.72	59	57.6%34 W · 25 L	+7.1wins	+0.12per pick	46cpaid	+29.2%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Bills	56c	12,062$6,706 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,705.87	758	52.5%398 W · 360 L	+21.9wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Bills	57c	1,842$1,050 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,049.94	397	54.4%216 W · 181 L	+26.0wins	+0.07per pick	48cpaid	+13.8%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9b29…8373backed Eagles	40c	516.78$207 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$310.07	128	42.2%54 W · 74 L	-1.6wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	-13.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Bills	56c	500$280 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$280	103	53.4%55 W · 48 L	+7.9wins	+0.08per pick	46cpaid	+19.4%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd903…bf9dbacked Bills	55c	480$266 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$266.35	154	46.8%72 W · 82 L	-4.6wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1733…1e15backed Bills	60c	400$240 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$240	204	43.6%89 W · 115 L	-7.9wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Bills	58c	303.23$177 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$176.63	187	45.5%85 W · 102 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Bills	57c	300$171 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$171	650	48.3%314 W · 336 L	-0.8wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf0ac…4ec7backed Bills	56c	300$168 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$168	276	33.3%92 W · 184 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Bills	57c	293$167 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$167.01	266	49.6%132 W · 134 L	+0.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb49c…3902backed Eagles	50c	200.4$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$100.2	6	83.3%5 W · 1 L	+2.4wins	+0.40per pick	43cpaid	+103.2%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0e32…f244backed Bills	58c	139$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.62	15	46.7%7 W · 8 L	-0.6wins	-0.04per pick	51cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4f9…5526backed Eagles	39c	98$38 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$59.78	14	42.9%6 W · 8 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x72f9…629abacked Bills	62c	96.77$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	35	34.3%12 W · 23 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	35cpaid	-13.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd851…9305backed Bills	60c	94$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.4	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	-0.9wins	-0.13per pick	56cpaid	-16%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4c2f…3794backed Bills	25c	80$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	81	28.4%23 W · 58 L	+1.4wins	+0.02per pick	27cpaid	-11.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd854…924fbacked Bills	60c	58$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.8	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	-0.4wins	-0.06per pick	49cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ccc…e7e8backed Eagles	41c	50$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.5	58	51.7%30 W · 28 L	+3.7wins	+0.06per pick	45cpaid	+22.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7219…fcf7backed Eagles	42c	44$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.68	10	90%9 W · 1 L	+3.8wins	+0.38per pick	52cpaid	+91.8%equal weight	62+0.11 edge/pick
0x8e78…fcb4backed Bills	61c	42$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.62	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-1.8wins	-0.36per pick	56cpaid	-65.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7f33…8f17backed Bills	61c	39$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.79	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-3.6wins	-0.45per pick	58cpaid	-75%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0x9d28…7a6dbacked Bills	57c	34.96$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.07	209	44.5%93 W · 116 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Eagles	43c	30$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.1	342	47.4%162 W · 180 L	-4.9wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x96ae…89d9backed Eagles	42c	30$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.4	10	30%3 W · 7 L	-2.5wins	-0.25per pick	55cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe5aa…1ebabacked Eagles	43c	30$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.1	35	45.7%16 W · 19 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd5c…1f57backed Eagles	42c	29$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.82	10	50%5 W · 5 L	-0.5wins	-0.05per pick	55cpaid	-10.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3be0…e4e5backed Eagles	40c	26$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.6	15	60%9 W · 6 L	+1.1wins	+0.07per pick	53cpaid	+21.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x67ec…06aabacked Eagles	40c	25$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15	6	66.7%4 W · 2 L	+0.8wins	+0.13per pick	54cpaid	+35.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2bb7…8745backed Bills	61c	17$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.37	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.7wins	-0.22per pick	55cpaid	-32%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Eagles vs. Bills: 1H Moneyline

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event