NFL · resolved market
1H Spread: Bills (-0.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x97a2b623fb5fb691c3c8b4cdc7ed4117275a5632ae2c00f94086157ba0512b3f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Eaglesof Bills, Eagles
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,347
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,685
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,347 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x07c8…2696backed Eagles | 49c | 8,196$4,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,195.68 | 59 | 57.6%34 W · 25 L | +7.1wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x87b6…4ababacked Bills | 59c | 5,086$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Bills | 51c | 4,294$2,199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,198.98 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Eagles | 41c | 1,707$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,007.13 | 397 | 54.4%216 W · 181 L | +26.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Bills | 51c | 300$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153 | 187 | 45.5%85 W · 102 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a8…1b66backed Eagles | 49c | 300$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd903…bf9dbacked Bills | 51c | 273.04$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.18 | 154 | 46.8%72 W · 82 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Bills | 51c | 264$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.64 | 266 | 49.6%132 W · 134 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53b0…4daabacked Bills | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Bills | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Bills | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7db3…77ccbacked Eagles | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 130 | 24.6%32 W · 98 L | -8.4wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3bec…6997backed Eagles | 46c | 74$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.96 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Bills | 51c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.25 | 103 | 53.4%55 W · 48 L | +7.9wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaacc…23c6backed Bills | 54c | 39$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.06 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07eb…4b4cbacked Bills | 54c | 35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1H Spread: Bills (-0.5)this page
- Eagles vs. BillsEagles won
- Eagles vs. Bills: 1H MoneylineEagles won
- Eagles vs. Bills: 1H O/U 21.5Under won
- Eagles vs. Bills: O/U 34.5Under won
- Eagles vs. Bills: O/U 37.5Under won
- Eagles vs. Bills: O/U 43.5Under won
- Eagles vs. Bills: O/U 44.5Under won
- Eagles vs. Bills: O/U 45.5Under won
- Spread: Bills (-1.5)Eagles won
- Spread: Bills (-2.5)Eagles won
- Spread: Bills (-3.5)Eagles won
- Spread: Eagles (-6.5)Bills won
- Spread: Eagles (-7.5)Bills won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.