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NFL · resolved market

Spread: Bills (-2.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Eaglesof Bills, Eagles
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$62,520
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$64,889

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $62,520 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 108 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3a7a…15a4backed Eagles45c11,115$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,114.5210648.1%51 W · 55 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Eagles44c10,080$4,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,64012944.2%57 W · 72 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6eb4…96b0backed Eagles54c10,000$5,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,600475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick62cpaid+36.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Bills47c9,659$4,574 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,574.3286547.9%414 W · 451 L-6.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Bills56c8,067$4,505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,505.0153348.4%258 W · 275 L+1.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Bills53c4,364$2,317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,317.1847348.4%229 W · 244 L+1.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Bills55c4,000$2,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,20025744.4%114 W · 143 L+0.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Bills46c3,800$1,748 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,747.9839447.7%188 W · 206 L-7.3wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Bills54c3,681$1,995 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,995.221,19649.9%597 W · 599 L+1.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8c4…7385backed Eagles43c2,300$989 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,31111139.6%44 W · 67 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-14.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Eagles48c2,216$1,071 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,144.7665048.3%314 W · 336 L-0.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d89…40a4backed Bills56c2,150$1,204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2041752.9%9 W · 8 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+13.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc9c8…44fbbacked Eagles50c2,000$990 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,01014837.2%55 W · 93 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-13.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Bills57c1,859$1,060 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,059.735848.6%174 W · 184 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea89…0b5fbacked Bills58c1,724$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0005046%23 W · 27 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Bills55c1,707$936 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$936.1475852.5%398 W · 360 L+21.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xefc9…b337backed Eagles44c1,545$680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$865.239754.6%53 W · 44 L+9.1wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+13%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Eagles54c1,096$588 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$507.6250242.4%213 W · 289 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-10.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x06e6…87e6backed Bills57c1,088$620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$620.1614641.8%61 W · 85 L-10.9wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-12.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdb03…d693backed Eagles44c1,038$457 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$581.361844.4%8 W · 10 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-15.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4da6…59fabacked Bills49c1,021$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5003650%18 W · 18 L+2.2wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcb14…bd17backed Bills56c1,000$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$559.513145.8%60 W · 71 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd51b…9606backed Bills51c980.39$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5006738.8%26 W · 41 L-7.8wins-0.12per pick50cpaid-26.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x827a…8a2bbacked Bills56c853.99$478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$478.2415555.5%86 W · 69 L+7.2wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+6.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb875…68a8backed Eagles44c785.69$346 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$439.995650%28 W · 28 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Eagles44c750$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4207731.2%24 W · 53 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-8.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked Eagles44c749.98$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$419.996030%18 W · 42 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick33cpaid+8.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc17f…50aabacked Eagles46c659.96$304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$356.3811254.5%61 W · 51 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c61…5213backed Eagles53c477.83$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.532958.6%17 W · 12 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+13.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0b80…657fbacked Bills50c460$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.5215746.5%73 W · 84 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Bills47c452.83$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.8312748%61 W · 66 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Eagles51c408$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.9222450%112 W · 112 L+8.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+10.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed Bills53c377.36$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20016351.5%84 W · 79 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xc210…39fcbacked Eagles45c375$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.256663.6%42 W · 24 L+9.7wins+0.15per pick49cpaid+30.2%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xb9fc…da76backed Bills56c343$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.0819240.1%77 W · 115 L-16.2wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-21.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7cb2…f12fbacked Bills57c320$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.43447.1%16 W · 18 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-10.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc599…2cecbacked Eagles44c300$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16816957.4%97 W · 72 L+15.7wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+21.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Bills57c290$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.355345%249 W · 304 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x43d7…dca3backed Bills56c267.86$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1506755.2%37 W · 30 L+3.4wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Eagles50c258.05$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.131,06551.3%546 W · 519 L+25.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c9b…a556backed Bills53c236.17$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1253946.2%18 W · 21 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Bills57c212$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.8419152.9%101 W · 90 L+0.7wins0.00per pick53cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe864…ce58backed Eagles53c200$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$959651%49 W · 47 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0395…c9edbacked Bills55c200$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1104139%16 W · 25 L-2.5wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-11.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Eagles47c180.81$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.4516349.7%81 W · 82 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3832…35e1backed Eagles56c179.02$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.0216451.2%84 W · 80 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x44bc…e775backed Bills57c175.44$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001118.2%2 W · 9 L-2.2wins-0.20per pick38cpaid-66.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5cfd…ca1bbacked Bills57c175.44$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1005149%25 W · 26 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb27b…bd9cbacked Bills57c175.44$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbb58…86a4backed Eagles45c168.31$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.573545.7%16 W · 19 L-2.9wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-4.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5b20…99e9backed Eagles45c133.33$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.3328047.5%133 W · 147 L-5.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3c2a…37f4backed Eagles55c132.39$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.621241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8cf9…1abfbacked Eagles44c123$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.881145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f3d…fadabacked Eagles49c122.45$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.456547.7%31 W · 34 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+23.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4130…a35bbacked Eagles45c118$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.92147.6%10 W · 11 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+10.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x256b…cd5dbacked Eagles44c110$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.68454.8%46 W · 38 L+3.9wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+8.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6564…8846backed Bills47c104.6$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.164158.5%24 W · 17 L+4.5wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+23.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xcb8f…d7e3backed Bills48c102.24$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.5742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0915…d08abacked Bills56c100$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$567745.5%35 W · 42 L-3.5wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-9.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x95bc…9f00backed Bills21c100$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.912945%58 W · 71 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+24.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x02f7…b17abacked Bills57c100$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5711855.9%66 W · 52 L+3.1wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6892…5b42backed Eagles46c98.98$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.45850%4 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid+1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd0b4…9dc2backed Bills43c91.43$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.62642.3%11 W · 15 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+25.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a56…387cbacked Bills21c90$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.5614844.6%66 W · 82 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-18.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb100…dce6backed Eagles43c75$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.75757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+22.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf8b…bff8backed Eagles55c72.73$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.737065.7%46 W · 24 L+9.8wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+25.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x575b…14f0backed Eagles45c70$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.54946.9%23 W · 26 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d28…7a6dbacked Eagles44c63.09$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.2220944.5%93 W · 116 L+0.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Eagles52c60.34$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.934652.9%183 W · 163 L+16.0wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+11.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x31ce…88cdbacked Eagles49c60$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.613357.1%76 W · 57 L+9.2wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+15.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xdcf7…bcbebacked Eagles49c60$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.611463.2%72 W · 42 L+14.5wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+26.6%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x6b82…2d2abacked Eagles49c60$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.610864.8%70 W · 38 L+15.5wins+0.14per pick50cpaid+29.4%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x2a20…8248backed Eagles45c59$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.451338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-20.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4d49…c438backed Bills56c56$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.08850%4 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-10.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Eagles45c54.6$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.924547.8%117 W · 128 L+8.6wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x681d…4cbfbacked Eagles46c54.35$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.3517047.1%80 W · 90 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3381…52bcbacked Bills51c54.29$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.692941.4%12 W · 17 L-3.1wins-0.11per pick52cpaid-20.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6ba8…bc05backed Eagles51c50$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.51770.6%12 W · 5 L+3.5wins+0.20per pick50cpaid+45.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc54d…cce3backed Bills47c50$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.52347.8%11 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x420e…e3c9backed Eagles44c49.99$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$286442.2%27 W · 37 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-9.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x65ea…223fbacked Eagles44c47$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.32944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-1.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0e44…3cefbacked Bills55c45$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.751546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-11.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa6d…d6bdbacked Bills55c43$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.65616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.3wins-0.39per pick56cpaid-66.7%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Bills51c41.02$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.8532043.8%140 W · 180 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d67…cf38backed Eagles44c40$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.41546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa00f…8e56backed Bills28c40$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.429439.5%116 W · 178 L-6.4wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-22.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf4dc…d394backed Eagles44c39$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.842564%16 W · 9 L+4.0wins+0.16per pick48cpaid+36.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7447…6564backed Bills53c37.74$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203237.5%12 W · 20 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-15.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3fb9…1591backed Eagles54c37.39$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.23860.5%23 W · 15 L+2.4wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+17.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6788…f69dbacked Bills56c35.71$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203262.5%20 W · 12 L+4.7wins+0.15per pick48cpaid+35.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xfadc…a4e8backed Bills56c35$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.73633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-31.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x60e6…89e4backed Bills56c34.46$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.31127.3%3 W · 8 L-3.3wins-0.30per pick58cpaid-59%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x8956…9e83backed Eagles71c32.24$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.231428.6%4 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick39cpaid-54.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0e32…f244backed Eagles45c32$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.61546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaacc…23c6backed Bills55c31$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.051050%5 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x34fa…f491backed Eagles44c30$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.813844.9%62 W · 76 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf447…3fe7backed Bills56c29$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.24742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick53cpaid-22.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Eagles52c26.94$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.0434247.4%162 W · 180 L-4.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe3b3…27babacked Bills56c25$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14580%4 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.24per pick56cpaid+43.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc9db…ab38backed Bills56c23$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.881070%7 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.12per pick58cpaid+25.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.