TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Lakers vs. Jazz

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Lakersof Lakers, Jazz
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,334,784
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,416,648

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,334,784 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 667 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf98d…7adbbacked Jazz23c133,095$30,745 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30,745.121258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.6wins+0.14per pick45cpaid+35.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Jazz24c122,678$29,493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29,493.414,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb2e4…bc51backed Jazz22c90,222$19,925 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,924.9221944.7%98 W · 121 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick45cpaid+0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Lakers77c78,010$59,861 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,149.132,09147.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L-56.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbcc9…26fbbacked Lakers77c68,603$52,824 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,778.714456.8%25 W · 19 L+7.5wins+0.17per pick40cpaid+26%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x68dd…f0b2backed Jazz23c50,059$11,527 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,526.9451350.1%257 W · 256 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed Lakers67c45,003$30,004 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,999.6538248.7%186 W · 196 L+13.9wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+0.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Jazz23c40,000$9,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,2001,12448.6%546 W · 578 L+13.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d12…7954backed Lakers59c33,103$19,593 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,510.465100%5 W · 0 L+2.2wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+101.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Lakers76c32,849$25,046 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,803.115,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf668…5c69backed Lakers77c30,389$23,249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,139.7236359.8%217 W · 146 L+23.7wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+14.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x817b…3c25backed Jazz19c23,277$4,418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,418.451,04841.1%431 W · 617 L+23.6wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Lakers77c23,000$17,660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,3404,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Lakers55c21,414$11,778 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,636.281,04549%512 W · 533 L+21.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b71…8044backed Lakers77c20,000$15,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,6008939.3%35 W · 54 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+2.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x8058…d023backed Lakers77c20,000$15,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,6007946.8%37 W · 42 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-6.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ada…2f28backed Jazz0c19,815$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.7264517.1%110 W · 535 L-11.9wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-44.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Lakers76c19,262$14,693 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,568.912,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Lakers75c18,370$13,858 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,511.969,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Lakers78c16,465$12,832 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,632.951,34129.9%401 W · 940 L-53.8wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-35.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0a7e…fce4backed Jazz24c16,400$3,884 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,88461835.4%219 W · 399 L+7.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x78f7…2c5dbacked Lakers77c14,263$10,980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,283.0938148.6%185 W · 196 L-15.6wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6e82…752cbacked Lakers75c13,951$10,463 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,487.781,20455.3%666 W · 538 L+52.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Lakers74c12,889$9,538 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,351.192,29851.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L+65.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xea32…8870backed Lakers78c12,821$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,820.514744.7%21 W · 26 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick48cpaid+6.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Lakers77c12,627$9,723 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,904.361,90854.5%1,040 W · 868 L+53.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e3a…4033backed Jazz46c12,420$5,685 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,684.7234062.1%211 W · 129 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Jazz37c11,909$4,357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,356.693,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Jazz43c11,896$5,117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,117.114,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdefe…5432backed Lakers74c11,400$8,436 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,9647468.9%51 W · 23 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Jazz35c11,119$3,864 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,863.661,00334.7%348 W · 655 L-44.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Jazz15c10,439$1,537 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,537.251,38439.4%545 W · 839 L+4.8wins0.00per pick39cpaid-21.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64b5…7543backed Jazz23c10,000$2,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,299.9935235.8%126 W · 226 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x25cc…9297backed Jazz27c9,130$2,471 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,470.5616942%71 W · 98 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid+4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b8e…5c3cbacked Lakers74c8,704$6,461 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,243.3544459.7%265 W · 179 L+12.4wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbf51…4a30backed Jazz29c8,621$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,50076746.4%356 W · 411 L-16.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe96c…3ff5backed Lakers55c8,228$4,526 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,702.762100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+102%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4087…1665backed Jazz25c8,218$2,093 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,092.633737.8%14 W · 23 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-14.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x564f…1795backed Lakers60c8,122$4,873 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,248.883839.5%15 W · 23 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-12.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xee14…8055backed Jazz41c7,567$3,136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,135.9218453.3%98 W · 86 L+7.9wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+5.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Lakers59c7,142$4,210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,931.492,63036.7%966 W · 1,664 L-119.1wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Jazz24c6,975$1,645 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,645.322,51249.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L+6.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Lakers77c6,774$5,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,573.751,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfcca…c460backed Jazz25c6,600$1,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,65011649.1%57 W · 59 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+30.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x52ed…8db7backed Lakers70c6,437$4,512 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,924.9839349.1%193 W · 200 L+1.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ff4…ebd9backed Jazz28c6,125$1,705 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,7051040%4 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick47cpaid+15%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Jazz50c6,100$3,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,0501,55652.8%822 W · 734 L+40.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f16…0246backed Jazz35c5,661$1,980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,98038649.5%191 W · 195 L+11.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Jazz25c5,003$1,248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,248.211,78228%499 W · 1,283 L+11.5wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Jazz33c4,782$1,591 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,591.012,16940.8%885 W · 1,284 L-8.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-14.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9dd…3cc5backed Jazz30c4,561$1,378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,377.652744.4%12 W · 15 L+3.8wins+0.14per pick30cpaid+64.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2eed…85a9backed Lakers77c4,361$3,358 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,003.0431455.1%173 W · 141 L+10.3wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Jazz24c4,217$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000.043,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93f2…62cabacked Lakers56c4,210$2,358 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,852.531100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b40…d85ebacked Jazz40c4,086$1,623 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,623.445832.8%19 W · 39 L+3.4wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-12.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4259…936fbacked Lakers55c3,866$2,122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,743.988333.7%28 W · 55 L-7.6wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-29.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Lakers76c3,645$2,770 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$874.851,31650.5%664 W · 652 L+42.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x90ab…ded1backed Jazz29c3,448$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0007745.5%35 W · 42 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+8.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf83e…4663backed Lakers67c3,327$2,218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,109.1622051.8%114 W · 106 L+1.0wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1909…a2c9backed Lakers61c3,321$2,042 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,278.962556%14 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Lakers76c3,029$2,302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$727.0895049.4%469 W · 481 L+10.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x11b5…0d05backed Lakers63c3,011$1,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,111.022536%9 W · 16 L-3.6wins-0.14per pick50cpaid-21.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4534…f867backed Jazz5c3,000$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.213625.7%35 W · 101 L+0.5wins0.00per pick25cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Jazz41c2,816$1,161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,160.858,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x89f3…dfffbacked Jazz37c2,810$1,046 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,046.1534227.2%93 W · 249 L-8.4wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-17.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb86d…3c53backed Jazz5c2,614$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12047134.2%161 W · 310 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-16.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x94d7…bef5backed Lakers55c2,454$1,351 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,102.7825925.9%67 W · 192 L+6.5wins+0.03per pick23cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x44f7…266fbacked Jazz1c2,372$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.164573.5%16 W · 441 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Jazz15c2,359$361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$360.641,22637.4%458 W · 768 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-21.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52b4…34a8backed Jazz28c2,262$633 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$633.3648347.2%228 W · 255 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x98a3…d61ebacked Jazz39c2,231$881 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$880.8122449.1%110 W · 114 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Lakers74c2,222$1,633 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$588.8389444.4%397 W · 497 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa939…790abacked Jazz4c2,207$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.691533.3%5 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-28.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e18…3209backed Jazz31c2,127$659 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$659.3730%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b23…e20fbacked Lakers52c2,113$1,098 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,014.1549938.9%194 W · 305 L-23.4wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-16.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3529…a599backed Jazz24c2,083$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5007445.9%34 W · 40 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+11.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa7f…3223backed Jazz3c2,076$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6017250%86 W · 86 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x03a9…37babacked Lakers70c2,073$1,451 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$621.7710547.6%50 W · 55 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed Lakers56c2,000$1,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88073649.9%367 W · 369 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b9a…5f69backed Jazz1c2,000$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135213.8%20 W · 501 L+0.6wins0.00per pick4cpaid-36.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf33d…c852backed Jazz24c1,939$465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$465.433933.3%13 W · 26 L+2.8wins+0.07per pick26cpaid+35.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcd3a…67cabacked Jazz19c1,883$355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$355.550838.2%194 W · 314 L+22.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+1.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdd28…2aefbacked Jazz9c1,761$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.6331430.3%95 W · 219 L-1.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12d9…01bbbacked Jazz23c1,750$403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402.546632.6%152 W · 314 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x371a…34b0backed Jazz1c1,741$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.061,0351.1%11 W · 1,024 L-24.4wins-0.02per pick3cpaid-90.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Lakers76c1,667$1,267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$400.1772450.7%367 W · 357 L+13.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad18…0b4fbacked Lakers54c1,650$894 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$755.8353134.7%184 W · 347 L-11.7wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcfde…3f9cbacked Lakers73c1,628$1,188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$439.541855.6%10 W · 8 L+1.6wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+10.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Lakers77c1,616$1,237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$379.082,73646.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L-67.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x06e6…87e6backed Lakers76c1,595$1,210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$384.744648%214 W · 232 L-12.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe3ff…805cbacked Jazz31c1,595$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50042827.3%117 W · 311 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe2fb…1425backed Lakers53c1,588$838 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$750.163450%17 W · 17 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+25.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd78d…60bebacked Jazz1c1,577$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.5425016.8%42 W · 208 L-13.1wins-0.05per pick22cpaid-38.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb87f…d2b1backed Jazz1c1,540$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1040%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7634…1b96backed Lakers78c1,532$1,195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$337.0524051.3%123 W · 117 L-0.7wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Jazz44c1,516$667 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$666.631,19032%381 W · 809 L-58.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-34.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2cb4…f28cbacked Jazz1c1,478$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.85248.3%2 W · 22 L-2.4wins-0.10per pick18cpaid-49.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5a0c…9db8backed Jazz28c1,463$407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$406.5521538.1%82 W · 133 L+7.6wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+20.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc28b…456cbacked Jazz1c1,444$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ae5…53c8backed Jazz29c1,430$415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$414.717141.5%71 W · 100 L-6.1wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-8.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.