NBA · resolved market
Spread: Lakers (-9.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xddd560bb421b22518cf917f7d97ca4c0b3cdbb193d15cb93f57d52dccca73507
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Jazzof Lakers, Jazz
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,186
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,970
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,186 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x067f…e041backed Jazz | 53c | 10,000$5,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,700 | 1,269 | 44.5%565 W · 704 L | +32.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Lakers | 47c | 9,877$4,641 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,641.43 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xead0…f3babacked Jazz | 53c | 7,710$4,086 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,623.59 | 1,124 | 48.6%546 W · 578 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Lakers | 47c | 4,255$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,999.85 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Lakers | 47c | 1,377$651 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650.53 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Lakers | 47c | 1,200$566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$566 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Lakers | 48c | 1,087$522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$521.91 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Lakers | 47c | 638$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.86 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd5…26ccbacked Jazz | 52c | 600$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288 | 516 | 51%263 W · 253 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57bc…d82dbacked Jazz | 52c | 589.98$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.19 | 56 | 57.1%32 W · 24 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Lakers | 47c | 428.89$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.58 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea61…cc32backed Jazz | 52c | 420$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.6 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Lakers | 47c | 400$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188 | 1,197 | 47.5%569 W · 628 L | -32.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x740b…1d47backed Jazz | 53c | 378.4$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.4 | 94 | 58.5%55 W · 39 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Lakers | 47c | 323.4$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa61f…7993backed Jazz | 53c | 199.69$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.08 | 617 | 47.8%295 W · 322 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Lakers | 47c | 124$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.38 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Lakers | 47c | 116.95$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.29 | 526 | 43%226 W · 300 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8c…686fbacked Lakers | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 244 | 9.4%23 W · 221 L | -27.5wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -72.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Lakers | 48c | 83$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.55 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeab8…3686backed Lakers | 47c | 69$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.43 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x187b…f545backed Lakers | 48c | 63.88$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.87 | 164 | 47.6%78 W · 86 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb390…642bbacked Jazz | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 1,661 | 50.3%836 W · 825 L | -14.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01fa…c2edbacked Jazz | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 174 | 47.7%83 W · 91 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa89e…4ab4backed Lakers | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 157 | 59.9%94 W · 63 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8328…0a5cbacked Jazz | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 368 | 42.4%156 W · 212 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef41…6438backed Jazz | 80c | 38.6$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.72 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee35…11ecbacked Jazz | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabf6…129dbacked Jazz | 52c | 29.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.11 | 199 | 51.8%103 W · 96 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Lakers | 48c | 27.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Lakers | 47c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f1…6349backed Jazz | 53c | 24.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.53 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ac…5ad1backed Jazz | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Lakers (-9.5)this page
- Lakers vs. JazzLakers won
- Lakers vs. Jazz: 1H MoneylineJazz won
- Lakers vs. Jazz: O/U 241.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Jazz: O/U 242.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Jazz: O/U 244.5Over won
- Spread: Lakers (-6.5)Lakers won
- Spread: Lakers (-8.5)Jazz won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.