NBA · resolved market

Lakers vs. Jazz: O/U 242.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4f1408d79ff3353ce8276c01555ed8452e7505104e6f5344197285bc1704ac0f

Rebuilt 15 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Overof Over, Under
Resolved: Dec 19, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $147,991
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $150,064

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $147,991 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x869b…c625backed Over	50c	96,835$48,417 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48,417.45	49	61.2%30 W · 19 L	+6.3wins	+0.13per pick	48cpaid	+33.2%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc94a…9401backed Under	50c	20,595$10,298 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10,297.65	403	50.1%202 W · 201 L	-3.6wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9249…4f16backed Under	50c	10,459$5,229 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,229.4	48	41.7%20 W · 28 L	-4.5wins	-0.09per pick	51cpaid	-20.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Under	50c	10,000$5,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,000	1,124	48.6%546 W · 578 L	+13.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e91…a3b5backed Under	50c	10,000$5,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,000	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.50per pick	50cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4372…2173backed Under	50c	10,000$5,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,000	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.50per pick	50cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Under	48c	10,000$4,800 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,799.95	1,269	44.5%565 W · 704 L	+32.4wins	+0.03per pick	42cpaid	+4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Under	50c	8,984$4,492 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,492	2,298	51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L	+65.4wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Over	50c	8,718$4,359 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,359.14	2,512	49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L	+6.9wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Under	50c	6,060$3,030 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,030	1,212	48.3%586 W · 626 L	-20.4wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x414b…73bcbacked Under	49c	5,456$2,700 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,700	147	53.1%78 W · 69 L	+8.6wins	+0.06per pick	47cpaid	+10.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5e42…ae5abacked Under	50c	5,400$2,700 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,700	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+1.0wins	+0.24per pick	51cpaid	+47.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x011c…31dfbacked Under	50c	5,000$2,500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,500	334	47.9%160 W · 174 L	-6.3wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf51…4a30backed Over	53c	3,791$2,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,791.44	767	46.4%356 W · 411 L	-16.7wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e00…eb46backed Under	50c	3,603$1,801 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,801.28	363	51.2%186 W · 177 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x159f…5862backed Under	50c	2,798$1,399 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,399	21	42.9%9 W · 12 L	-1.4wins	-0.06per pick	49cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Over	52c	2,634$1,369 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,264.15	1,910	54.3%1,038 W · 872 L	+25.2wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1464…5e75backed Under	50c	2,200$1,109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,109	156	53.8%84 W · 72 L	+5.9wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+8.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6bea…5d50backed Under	50c	2,111$1,056 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,055.5	500	47.2%236 W · 264 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8511…4a6bbacked Under	50c	2,000$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	303	51.8%157 W · 146 L	+4.6wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0500…6158backed Over	54c	1,483$801 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$682.5	121	51.2%62 W · 59 L	+3.8wins	+0.03per pick	48cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb2e2…4e99backed Over	52c	1,442$750 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$692.31	164	42.1%69 W · 95 L	-7.6wins	-0.05per pick	47cpaid	-10.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb177…1914backed Over	52c	1,160$603 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$556.62	248	47.6%118 W · 130 L	-6.0wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8717…49a8backed Under	50c	1,082$541 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$540.79	356	51.1%182 W · 174 L	+4.7wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3242…0e0bbacked Over	51c	1,078$550 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$528.43	212	47.2%100 W · 112 L	-5.5wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c6f…014ebacked Over	50c	1,000$500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$500	183	45.4%83 W · 100 L	-5.0wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7a30…8abdbacked Under	50c	1,000$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	507	54.2%275 W · 232 L	+13.6wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd5b0…60e7backed Under	50c	721.4$361 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$360.7	18	22.2%4 W · 14 L	-5.2wins	-0.29per pick	51cpaid	-57.6%equal weight	37-0.12 edge/pick
0xfd3f…44f1backed Over	52c	713.92$371 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$342.68	254	52.8%134 W · 120 L	+3.8wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Under	50c	500$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	2,796	50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L	+27.9wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Under	50c	400$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	2,361	48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L	-41.8wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4602…3315backed Over	52c	384.62$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$184.62	82	47.6%39 W · 43 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x37de…f512backed Under	7c	356.41$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.04	1,390	26%361 W · 1,029 L	-5.6wins	0.00per pick	26cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5b20…99e9backed Under	50c	320$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160	660	46.8%309 W · 351 L	-16.2wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb9c…d01bbacked Over	50c	313.73$157 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$156.73	65	60%39 W · 26 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	60cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Under	50c	300$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	1,197	47.5%569 W · 628 L	-32.0wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5f27…6ea7backed Under	51c	229.99$117 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$117.3	141	45.4%64 W · 77 L	-4.6wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-11.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xad44…db14backed Under	53c	226.89$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	52	53.8%28 W · 24 L	+1.7wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Over	47c	201.89$95 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$107	1,451	49.7%721 W · 730 L	+18.0wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Over	50c	200$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$100	786	52.4%412 W · 374 L	+14.4wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2687…1363backed Under	50c	200$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	-2.9wins	-0.26per pick	54cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3fbc…9cf6backed Under	50c	200$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	366	49.5%181 W · 185 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x66fe…e123backed Over	50c	200$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$100	186	56.5%105 W · 81 L	+4.0wins	+0.02per pick	54cpaid	+12.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe025…102fbacked Under	50c	199.21$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	156	49.4%77 W · 79 L	+1.8wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1a8…1b66backed Under	50c	196.07$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.04	189	54.5%103 W · 86 L	+3.8wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+4.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c0f…09debacked Under	50c	192.31$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.16	154	40.3%62 W · 92 L	-6.4wins	-0.04per pick	44cpaid	-8.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over	50c	190.7$96 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$94.66	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd711…894fbacked Under	50c	140$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-1.9wins	-0.31per pick	48cpaid	-58.3%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0ad2…71f8backed Over	51c	100$51 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49	65	49.2%32 W · 33 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Under	50c	100$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	1,475	51.3%756 W · 719 L	+35.2wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x15e3…009fbacked Over	51c	100$51 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49	373	57.4%214 W · 159 L	+7.5wins	+0.02per pick	55cpaid	+4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9466…1f15backed Over	51c	98.04$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48.04	208	47.1%98 W · 110 L	-4.9wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1a7…07cdbacked Over	51c	97$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$47.53	62	53.2%33 W · 29 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc0a5…4024backed Over	53c	66.04$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.04	27	44.4%12 W · 15 L	-2.0wins	-0.07per pick	52cpaid	-20.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Under	47c	57.78$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.15	1,294	48.1%623 W · 671 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9696…2bc3backed Over	52c	43$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.64	339	49.9%169 W · 170 L	-1.4wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Over	49c	40.86$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.84	4,878	48%2,341 W · 2,537 L	+61.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d0e…4049backed Under	51c	39.22$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	242	53.3%129 W · 113 L	+5.4wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb51b…779dbacked Over	51c	39.22$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.22	9	55.6%5 W · 4 L	+0.9wins	+0.10per pick	45cpaid	+36.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x84ec…daabbacked Under	50c	37.68$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.84	33	57.6%19 W · 14 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	56cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e2c…6aaebacked Over	52c	32.22$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.47	102	34.3%35 W · 67 L	-12.7wins	-0.12per pick	47cpaid	-28.9%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0xf4f1…6349backed Under	50c	30$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	173	50.9%88 W · 85 L	-6.7wins	-0.04per pick	55cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x196a…f34fbacked Over	51c	30$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.7	37	29.7%11 W · 26 L	-3.2wins	-0.09per pick	38cpaid	-20.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5530…d38dbacked Over	49c	26.05$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.29	1,053	53.5%563 W · 490 L	-15.4wins	-0.01per pick	55cpaid	+2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Under	49c	25.86$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.7	1,695	44.7%758 W · 937 L	-30.4wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd7c3…3800backed Over	50c	20$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	65	36.9%24 W · 41 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	38cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7140…47e3backed Under	50c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	126	50%63 W · 63 L	+2.1wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2cbd…63d9backed Under	50c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.50per pick	50cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d60…50dbbacked Under	50c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	62	56.5%35 W · 27 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	58cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x23fe…9788backed Over	80c	16.66$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.39	526	43%226 W · 300 L	-19.4wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	-15.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Lakers vs. Jazz: O/U 242.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event