Movies · resolved market
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 90m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x20621b51a564adece53d83897997dcc236e2a59689f93f84a57a167efa952d97
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,320,175
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,456,303
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,320,175 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 1,147 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed Yes | 73c | 170,278$124,798 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45,479.32 | 177 | 51.4%91 W · 86 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed Yes | 51c | 127,625$64,866 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62,758.42 | 260 | 41.2%107 W · 153 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd814…7f65backed Yes | 68c | 34,644$23,412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,232.03 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62cf…5826backed Yes | 60c | 32,457$19,432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,024.92 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 39c | 30,088$11,734 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,353.85 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7be…f3ecbacked No | 3c | 27,332$689 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$688.75 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffa5…0c23backed Yes | 75c | 22,344$16,667 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,676.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 73c | 17,422$12,803 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,618.59 | 135 | 34.8%47 W · 88 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 68c | 17,246$11,672 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,574.03 | 285 | 28.8%82 W · 203 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd362…9bc4backed No | 44c | 15,305$6,783 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,782.96 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x056a…611fbacked No | 13c | 15,250$1,971 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,971.22 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 42c | 12,989$5,391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,597.95 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71b9…c8adbacked No | 30c | 12,369$3,687 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,687.39 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2962…0029backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc04e…8c31backed No | 65c | 10,000$6,460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,459.99 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89d7…3fabbacked No | 28c | 10,000$2,840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,839.99 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd45…3dd4backed No | 33c | 9,867$3,211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,211.26 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6640…2202backed Yes | 37c | 9,609$3,507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,101.09 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -4.3wins | -0.22per pick | 44cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed Yes | 31c | 9,387$2,915 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,471.91 | 200 | 49.5%99 W · 101 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd05…b396backed Yes | 60c | 8,958$5,412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,546.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +65.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 20c | 8,021$1,573 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,573.38 | 62 | 22.6%14 W · 48 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed Yes | 59c | 7,795$4,602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,192.64 | 71 | 25.4%18 W · 53 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe405…bf91backed No | 29c | 7,749$2,223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,222.77 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44b9…0598backed No | 29c | 7,547$2,165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,165 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b62…09d9backed No | 11c | 7,231$768 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$767.53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed No | 1c | 6,700$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ee4…3485backed Yes | 32c | 6,622$2,130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,492.13 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5073…59f0backed No | 14c | 6,468$875 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$875.12 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -87.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2965…c74abacked No | 68c | 6,030$4,119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,119.28 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8203…0187backed No | 20c | 6,000$1,201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200.73 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 24c | 5,937$1,399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,398.75 | 72 | 52.8%38 W · 34 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a3c…2db9backed No | 12c | 5,907$701 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$701.03 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56db…171cbacked No | 8c | 5,708$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432.2 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46b0…efa6backed No | 9c | 5,614$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58aa…a481backed Yes | 50c | 5,415$2,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,715.32 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc62a…c2c7backed Yes | 61c | 5,161$3,167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,994.03 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9690…f2d5backed No | 26c | 5,152$1,341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,341.02 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d76…90c2backed No | 12c | 5,115$595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$594.77 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5c…5226backed Yes | 59c | 5,060$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,060.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +68.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x332e…fd5dbacked No | 30c | 5,055$1,536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,536.46 | 39 | 10.3%4 W · 35 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…1b02backed Yes | 30c | 5,036$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,535.56 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59f1…a693backed No | 73c | 5,000$3,662 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,662.25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb63a…4064backed Yes | 75c | 5,000$3,725 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,275 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeceb…8d0dbacked No | 43c | 5,000$2,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb76a…716dbacked No | 46c | 5,000$2,303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,303.39 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x052c…5a0ebacked Yes | 68c | 4,803$3,271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,532.01 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9199…dd2dbacked No | 74c | 4,793$3,533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,532.61 | 327 | 39.1%128 W · 199 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x705d…c60abacked No | 55c | 4,752$2,602 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,602.37 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…aba5backed Yes | 45c | 4,701$2,121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,579.42 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9804…6896backed No | 15c | 4,667$696 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$696.15 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +88.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa74d…734cbacked No | 21c | 4,595$980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$980.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x793c…e8dabacked No | 48c | 4,256$2,064 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,064.02 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27db…e863backed Yes | 63c | 4,253$2,671 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,581.97 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd748…2125backed Yes | 27c | 4,230$1,149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,080.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e32…8a33backed No | 24c | 4,213$996 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$995.91 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x164d…2ce9backed Yes | 61c | 4,136$2,535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,601.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca4…923dbacked No | 36c | 4,031$1,469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,469.08 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -3.5wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 14c | 4,030$561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560.54 | 170 | 10%17 W · 153 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22d1…b52bbacked No | 13c | 4,000$524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$524 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 8c | 3,889$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.34 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x944e…8c94backed Yes | 32c | 3,833$1,217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,615.74 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d4…c481backed No | 57c | 3,800$2,177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,177.35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -53%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x355f…0df8backed No | 79c | 3,798$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b3b…63b9backed No | 35c | 3,779$1,338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,337.72 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +61.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc22c…bfc7backed No | 27c | 3,689$991 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$990.65 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe278…b608backed No | 72c | 3,460$2,505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,505.04 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed Yes | 46c | 3,305$1,513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,792.32 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x555e…393bbacked No | 72c | 3,278$2,348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,348.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1766…5705backed Yes | 62c | 3,239$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,238.89 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc43…abf5backed Yes | 69c | 3,050$2,091 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$959.1 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfadf…dda0backed No | 43c | 3,030$1,307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,306.77 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f62…1248backed No | 33c | 3,000$996 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$996 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe533…ab29backed No | 67c | 3,000$2,022 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,022 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -87.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe02c…5d08backed No | 43c | 2,969$1,286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,285.57 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea96…11e3backed No | 35c | 2,950$1,023 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,022.72 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +2.9wins | +0.13per pick | 26cpaid | +6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 53c | 2,932$1,553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,379.03 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -28%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae7…0fd1backed No | 39c | 2,930$1,139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,139.13 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5440…edd4backed No | 66c | 2,906$1,914 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,914.5 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe714…d510backed No | 15c | 2,878$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3e…783bbacked No | 28c | 2,849$786 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$785.55 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96e9…4b32backed No | 56c | 2,806$1,573 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,573.09 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +3.9wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…382bbacked No | 21c | 2,792$589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$588.75 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94d9…870ebacked Yes | 68c | 2,710$1,844 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$866.11 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | +50%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90d6…997abacked No | 55c | 2,603$1,421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,420.52 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x990b…7ac3backed Yes | 69c | 2,574$1,781 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$792.57 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 21c | 2,561$529 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,031.39 | 105 | 37.1%39 W · 66 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec9…1018backed No | 42c | 2,555$1,073 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,073.1 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5bd…169abacked No | 22c | 2,539$552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$552.26 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x703f…2921backed No | 9c | 2,534$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.89 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0970…5ae4backed No | 8c | 2,500$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 30c | 2,492$738 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,753.81 | 187 | 19.3%36 W · 151 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe66a…a0a0backed Yes | 39c | 2,466$970 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,495.92 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…47efbacked Yes | 41c | 2,419$995 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,424.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0de9…e633backed No | 54c | 2,313$1,251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,251.35 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x108d…508abacked No | 49c | 2,302$1,117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,116.84 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59b8…26b2backed No | 7c | 2,226$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.43 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…feb0backed No | 39c | 2,201$857 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$857.32 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -38%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5be5…2d9abacked No | 9c | 2,178$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.88 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5232…0ec5backed Yes | 72c | 2,162$1,562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600.24 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1048…06d6backed No | 15c | 2,124$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.18 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 90m?this page
- Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 101m and 112m?No won
- Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 112m and 123m?No won
- Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 90m and 101m?No won
- Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 123m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.