Movies · resolved market
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 101m and 112m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x60bd2b0a428c94121fd716bb3bbdfa282b35453e8959a7f450cb4ab6937376c4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,966,022
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,801,943
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,966,022 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 492 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5a99…5309backed Yes | 4c | 192,173$6,863 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,863.11 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x426e…acd0backed Yes | 0c | 185,330$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.93 | 36 | 8.3%3 W · 33 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef7…18ffbacked Yes | 0c | 151,826$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80f0…68e1backed Yes | 2c | 128,167$2,757 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,757.34 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd86b…1924backed Yes | 0c | 122,243$569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$569.09 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7be…f3ecbacked Yes | 0c | 118,516$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.56 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10fb…4651backed Yes | 1c | 88,061$1,319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,318.72 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -2.8wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x332e…fd5dbacked Yes | 8c | 80,000$6,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,400 | 39 | 10.3%4 W · 35 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x477a…2d8ebacked Yes | 0c | 76,739$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.12 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ee9…69a0backed Yes | 0c | 68,841$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b62…09d9backed Yes | 1c | 68,669$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b56…181dbacked Yes | 0c | 67,657$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc04e…8c31backed Yes | 4c | 65,000$2,470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,470 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46b0…efa6backed Yes | 0c | 53,750$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.75 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x857f…da55backed Yes | 0c | 50,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7681…ac03backed Yes | 1c | 47,557$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.51 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde55…dc14backed Yes | 2c | 45,622$715 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$715.11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x340f…7a99backed Yes | 0c | 43,311$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.67 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e3…63fbbacked Yes | 0c | 42,230$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.68 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2179…bedbbacked Yes | 0c | 36,999$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 0c | 34,289$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.45 | 328 | 14.9%49 W · 279 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…b1fdbacked Yes | 10c | 32,000$3,116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,116.28 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes | 2c | 31,972$552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$552.28 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x033e…34c6backed Yes | 0c | 31,697$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c2…8acebacked Yes | 0c | 28,435$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc22c…bfc7backed Yes | 2c | 28,310$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.69 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa61e…6906backed Yes | 1c | 28,014$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.3 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25da…6e43backed Yes | 0c | 27,780$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d29…6da9backed Yes | 6c | 27,282$1,650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,649.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc363…9fd8backed Yes | 7c | 24,809$1,694 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,693.64 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb9c…d01bbacked Yes | 0c | 23,184$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.18 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95b7…d633backed Yes | 0c | 22,012$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.53 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b90…0f10backed Yes | 0c | 21,562$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71fc…171abacked Yes | 7c | 21,107$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,499.84 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13bd…3019backed Yes | 0c | 21,057$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.4 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07fd…48fbbacked Yes | 1c | 20,000$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.56 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 1c | 19,253$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.95 | 135 | 34.8%47 W · 88 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e9…ef4dbacked Yes | 0c | 18,476$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0a…c378backed Yes | 1c | 17,895$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.5 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x163c…9ef3backed Yes | 2c | 17,431$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.1 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad2a…69d8backed Yes | 0c | 17,114$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -71.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe74d…22fdbacked Yes | 12c | 15,605$1,841 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,840.69 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x964f…ca58backed Yes | 1c | 15,378$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.04 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…0fe9backed Yes | 15c | 15,000$2,323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,323.09 | 166 | 24.1%40 W · 126 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85f5…ada8backed Yes | 1c | 13,631$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.26 | 25 | 4%1 W · 24 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 11cpaid | -93.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31d8…43f1backed Yes | 3c | 13,577$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.23 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f5…6a9abacked Yes | 0c | 12,831$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.19 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bb5…5c36backed Yes | 2c | 12,486$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.15 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4463…f3d0backed Yes | 2c | 12,186$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.49 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5440…edd4backed Yes | 11c | 12,000$1,376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,375.75 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f2d…430dbacked Yes | 0c | 12,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5be5…2d9abacked Yes | 1c | 11,233$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.9 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0218…52c0backed Yes | 2c | 10,778$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.9 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -87.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdef0…3d06backed Yes | 1c | 10,366$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.29 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1766…5705backed Yes | 2c | 10,265$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fa6…4465backed Yes | 1c | 10,232$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 3cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1e…5181backed Yes | 11c | 10,088$1,086 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,085.8 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8192…0664backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a3c…2db9backed Yes | 0c | 9,832$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.33 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc24…11a5backed Yes | 0c | 9,550$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.08 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56db…171cbacked Yes | 0c | 9,474$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…feb0backed Yes | 14c | 9,452$1,310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,309.73 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -38%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca4…923dbacked Yes | 2c | 9,309$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -3.5wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x82cd…dfe7backed Yes | 0c | 9,217$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86fe…4ffebacked Yes | 0c | 8,936$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.98 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 25c | 8,765$2,214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,214.1 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe78b…5f91backed Yes | 0c | 8,489$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36b7…6af2backed Yes | 1c | 8,333$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x891e…c1c9backed Yes | 1c | 8,139$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 11cpaid | -75.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcae3…000ebacked Yes | 3c | 8,001$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.92 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf66e…62d3backed Yes | 1c | 8,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf936…0b6fbacked Yes | 14c | 7,808$1,122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,122.04 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x997a…1b8fbacked Yes | 0c | 7,591$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 16cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd45…3dd4backed Yes | 9c | 7,532$675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$675.5 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb74e…e0a6backed Yes | 2c | 7,325$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 0c | 7,144$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 133 | 21.1%28 W · 105 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0156…2ddcbacked Yes | 4c | 7,142$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.98 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c75…a9e4backed Yes | 0c | 7,045$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x433b…f372backed Yes | 1c | 7,006$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x197c…9b94backed Yes | 9c | 6,990$653 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$653.1 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x107c…3ef7backed Yes | 13c | 6,832$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -74%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6429…33fcbacked Yes | 2c | 6,791$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.81 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 5c | 6,325$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.48 | 59 | 11.9%7 W · 52 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -78.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 6,223$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.97 | 278 | 1.8%5 W · 273 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d89…340cbacked Yes | 2c | 5,731$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9df4…fb3dbacked Yes | 1c | 5,683$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.89 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfc…22d8backed Yes | 0c | 5,567$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e04…7a00backed Yes | 1c | 5,500$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb028…8686backed Yes | 11c | 5,472$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590.27 | 236 | 39.8%94 W · 142 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b4c…ea92backed Yes | 2c | 5,265$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x056a…611fbacked Yes | 24c | 5,122$1,210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,210 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5bd…169abacked Yes | 1c | 5,111$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.87 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44b9…0598backed Yes | 2c | 5,094$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 8c | 5,090$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.37 | 473 | 28.3%134 W · 339 L | -32.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec9…1018backed Yes | 1c | 5,040$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.24 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb76a…716dbacked Yes | 2c | 5,010$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7845…417bbacked Yes | 12c | 5,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f2…03e0backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e97…d7afbacked Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5792…7731backed Yes | 1c | 4,972$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.55 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 101m and 112m?this page
- Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 112m and 123m?No won
- Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 90m and 101m?No won
- Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 123m?No won
- Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 90m?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.