Movies · resolved market
Will "Marty Supreme" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 25m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcf292fb47f89c2a8cb786508bda3085913b7340f944a88fba35d6c888064f1f2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $82,160
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $61,678
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $82,160 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 96 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaf9f…f6a3backed Yes | 20c | 5,000$990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,009.64 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +2.5wins | +0.13per pick | 34cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x17a5…e00abacked No | 5c | 4,969$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.23 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5684…7874backed No | 80c | 4,559$3,647 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,646.8 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fa6…4465backed No | 3c | 3,794$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.94 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 3cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked No | 65c | 3,565$2,317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,316.57 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86aa…c663backed No | 18c | 2,024$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.87 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f11…ddc4backed Yes | 59c | 1,852$1,084 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$768.05 | 150 | 59.3%89 W · 61 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8ace…6069backed Yes | 43c | 1,556$673 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$882.09 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +3.6wins | +0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…aba5backed Yes | 40c | 1,354$541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$812.27 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…9b33backed Yes | 79c | 1,200$950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…0fe9backed No | 16c | 1,200$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.69 | 166 | 24.1%40 W · 126 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x955c…990fbacked Yes | 63c | 1,018$646 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.8 | 71 | 57.7%41 W · 30 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x332e…fd5dbacked No | 10c | 999.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 39 | 10.3%4 W · 35 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc981…a75dbacked Yes | 31c | 979$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$672.35 | 57 | 26.3%15 W · 42 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 2c | 931.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 278 | 1.8%5 W · 273 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ded…9025backed No | 9c | 879.68$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.49 | 56 | 19.6%11 W · 45 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ee4…3485backed No | 46c | 872.46$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.54 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0113…6f26backed No | 63c | 828.12$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525.14 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 9c | 820$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.05 | 230 | 41.7%96 W · 134 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…d68ebacked No | 3c | 724.85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 66 | 6.1%4 W · 62 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 25c | 659.22$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.71 | 137 | 40.1%55 W · 82 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…fabdbacked Yes | 63c | 601.11$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.29 | 285 | 24.2%69 W · 216 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf25b…82d0backed No | 4c | 600$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 36 | 8.3%3 W · 33 L | -4.5wins | -0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -83.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 37c | 580.46$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.62 | 285 | 28.8%82 W · 203 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 56c | 500$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed No | 2c | 480.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 93 | 4.3%4 W · 89 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed No | 14c | 385.67$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.27 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -60%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 12c | 346.78$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.7 | 170 | 10%17 W · 153 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 64c | 344.77$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.87 | 105 | 37.1%39 W · 66 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed No | 3c | 343.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 67 | 4.5%3 W · 64 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed No | 46c | 335.81$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.47 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8564…4b2ebacked Yes | 44c | 327.51$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.41 | 116 | 25.9%30 W · 86 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9779…c429backed No | 3c | 322.49$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 20c | 285.66$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.73 | 208 | 50%104 W · 104 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x450e…80aebacked Yes | 72c | 284.85$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.71 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e2…bb87backed Yes | 75c | 261.96$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.24 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b9…de6dbacked Yes | 73c | 254.55$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.58 | 103 | 31.1%32 W · 71 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59cd…716fbacked Yes | 49c | 205.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.98 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6680…c738backed Yes | 67c | 205.9$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.95 | 105 | 44.8%47 W · 58 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34cb…7588backed No | 6c | 204.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 30cpaid | -75.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 130 | 34.6%45 W · 85 L | -8.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed No | 32c | 200$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfae3…5228backed No | 38c | 198.56$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.96 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No | 22c | 178.6$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.14 | 83 | 45.8%38 W · 45 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked No | 9c | 176.15$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.73 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -61.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6edb…6089backed Yes | 64c | 171.13$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.13 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb9…3783backed Yes | 61c | 169.99$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked No | 12c | 160$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 58 | 31%18 W · 40 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe25b…0f1bbacked Yes | 52c | 152.13$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.78 | 163 | 50.3%82 W · 81 L | +24.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0af5…2470backed Yes | 54c | 149.01$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.82 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4cf…2d96backed Yes | 54c | 134.28$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.22 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c3f…2166backed Yes | 56c | 122.04$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +79.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf097…3d5fbacked Yes | 54c | 113.59$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.25 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53a0…4af0backed No | 15c | 112.36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe239…47b7backed Yes | 57c | 110$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.8 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.36per pick | 21cpaid | +165.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x24d2…92c5backed Yes | 67c | 109$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.97 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +69%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 12c | 104$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x78b1…f58fbacked Yes | 59c | 103.29$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.63 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +90.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed No | 38c | 101.49$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.49 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed Yes | 63c | 100.3$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.11 | 177 | 51.4%91 W · 86 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed No | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 187 | 46%86 W · 101 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -20%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 51 | 23.5%12 W · 39 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x420e…e3c9backed Yes | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -29%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a39…a0a7backed No | 43c | 93.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 37c | 92.37$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.27 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8b…5945backed No | 57c | 89.93$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57d4…ac0dbacked Yes | 72c | 81.9$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.6 | 170 | 41.8%71 W · 99 L | +10.8wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a6…1b6cbacked Yes | 70c | 80$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.75 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33f8…c5e4backed No | 33c | 79.07$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.83 | 294 | 23.5%69 W · 225 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -43%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ca…e7adbacked Yes | 33c | 76.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.3 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x258e…0ad7backed Yes | 66c | 75$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.55 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +103.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x976c…6c16backed Yes | 66c | 75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.35per pick | 45cpaid | +80.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 79c | 72.46$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.22 | 328 | 14.9%49 W · 279 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0a4…41c2backed No | 15c | 71.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf933…52fbbacked Yes | 59c | 60$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 122 | 40.2%49 W · 73 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked No | 25c | 54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 52 | 42.3%22 W · 30 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked No | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf42c…786bbacked Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +77.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e9…b2e0backed No | 59c | 49.25$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe836…8fe7backed Yes | 40c | 43.91$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbc…5196backed Yes | 46c | 43.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.78 | 41 | 12.2%5 W · 36 L | -5.1wins | -0.12per pick | 25cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x99a5…c0c7backed Yes | 45c | 41.96$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +119.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9948…ec09backed Yes | 79c | 40.6$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.53 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cef…4017backed No | 42c | 40.6$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6127…27debacked Yes | 54c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bca…b60abacked No | 58c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 114 | 21.9%25 W · 89 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…71ddbacked Yes | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 195 | 32.8%64 W · 131 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 54c | 36.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0cdc…ae37backed Yes | 71c | 35.31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed No | 51c | 32.78$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 260 | 41.2%107 W · 153 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6091…0b10backed Yes | 48c | 31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 20cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10a7…c0debacked Yes | 61c | 29.75$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9c0…7b6cbacked Yes | 42c | 26.19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ca3…0182backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea5…5933backed Yes | 80c | 18.7$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1c2…e8a3backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -50%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Marty Supreme" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 25m?this page
- Will "Marty Supreme" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 19m and 22m?No won
- Will "Marty Supreme" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 22m and 25m?No won
- Will "Marty Supreme" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 19m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.