Movies · resolved market
Will "Marty Supreme" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 22m and 25m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc7d8a0fcafc5f1bc21644fcfea0efb84579e6d96f9ef79146bc3def00191d1b3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,363
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,023
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,363 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x17a5…e00abacked Yes | 5c | 3,121$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.94 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33f8…c5e4backed Yes | 6c | 2,298$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.44 | 294 | 23.5%69 W · 225 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -43%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ef…be38backed Yes | 26c | 1,500$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.99 | 60 | 28.3%17 W · 43 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 18c | 1,249$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.04 | 285 | 28.8%82 W · 203 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 6c | 622.5$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.85 | 278 | 1.8%5 W · 273 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes | 8c | 600.24$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.67 | 66 | 6.1%4 W · 62 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf25b…82d0backed Yes | 3c | 594.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 36 | 8.3%3 W · 33 L | -4.5wins | -0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -83.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4028…7de4backed Yes | 6c | 579.83$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.87 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dff…1f35backed Yes | 19c | 479.98$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.8 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 6c | 463.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.52 | 230 | 41.7%96 W · 134 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 13c | 442$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.28 | 328 | 14.9%49 W · 279 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 26c | 419.34$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.37 | 105 | 37.1%39 W · 66 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 14c | 416.37$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.1 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 6c | 399.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 93 | 4.3%4 W · 89 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb028…8686backed Yes | 18c | 356.94$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 236 | 39.8%94 W · 142 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bca…b60abacked Yes | 27c | 356$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.58 | 114 | 21.9%25 W · 89 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 4c | 333.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 204 | 2.9%6 W · 198 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…fabdbacked Yes | 20c | 289.76$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.54 | 285 | 24.2%69 W · 216 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 10c | 267.86$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.14 | 118 | 25.4%30 W · 88 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53a0…4af0backed Yes | 10c | 208.84$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.26 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 5c | 200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 67 | 4.5%3 W · 64 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab72…b70dbacked Yes | 23c | 185.63$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.03 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed Yes | 10c | 169.84$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.57 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbc…5196backed Yes | 25c | 145.35$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 41 | 12.2%5 W · 36 L | -5.1wins | -0.12per pick | 25cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed Yes | 31c | 126$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.06 | 187 | 46%86 W · 101 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -20%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaec0…b953backed Yes | 14c | 118.76$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.21 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…9b33backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.74 | 51 | 23.5%12 W · 39 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7656…194bbacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffab…0912backed Yes | 12c | 94.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 17c | 91.75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.74 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 15c | 76.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 135 | 34.8%47 W · 88 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe836…8fe7backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e2…bb87backed Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb74…2f5abacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Marty Supreme" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 22m and 25m?this page
- Will "Marty Supreme" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 19m and 22m?No won
- Will "Marty Supreme" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 25m?Yes won
- Will "Marty Supreme" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 19m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.