Movies · resolved market
Will "Marty Supreme" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 19m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x949eb566ce1e877ae41647413bdcd8155ce1743de59c83ca2f2ea9a05419384d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $71,028
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $64,451
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $71,028 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 30c | 6,712$1,992 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,992 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9f…f6a3backed No | 67c | 5,630$3,776 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,854.25 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +2.5wins | +0.13per pick | 34cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fa6…4465backed Yes | 1c | 5,000$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.43 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 3cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed Yes | 31c | 3,339$1,035 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,035.16 | 260 | 41.2%107 W · 153 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x332e…fd5dbacked Yes | 1c | 3,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 39 | 10.3%4 W · 35 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x426e…acd0backed Yes | 3c | 2,972$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.2 | 36 | 8.3%3 W · 33 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 3c | 2,000$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0a4…41c2backed Yes | 1c | 1,670$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.71 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4028…7de4backed Yes | 3c | 1,502$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.01 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes | 31c | 1,375$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.01 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f11…ddc4backed No | 71c | 1,000$710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.39 | 150 | 59.3%89 W · 61 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 3c | 947.46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -60%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dfd…6a46backed Yes | 46c | 896.02$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.41 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 794.4$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.76 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 4c | 703.22$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.33 | 170 | 10%17 W · 153 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc981…a75dbacked No | 80c | 500$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 57 | 26.3%15 W · 42 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 2c | 489.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 111 | 4.5%5 W · 106 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 75c | 444.86$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.22 | 137 | 40.1%55 W · 82 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ace…6069backed No | 78c | 343.81$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.19 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +3.6wins | +0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed Yes | 59c | 300$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177 | 187 | 46%86 W · 101 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -20%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf097…3d5fbacked Yes | 41c | 288.22$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.75 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe52…32c5backed Yes | 28c | 235.55$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.68 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…fabdbacked Yes | 32c | 215.39$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.85 | 285 | 24.2%69 W · 216 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dff…1f35backed Yes | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f29…0760backed Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Yes | 20c | 180$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.11 | 83 | 45.8%38 W · 45 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07c4…2c5bbacked No | 45c | 167.24$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbc…5196backed No | 75c | 133.6$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 41 | 12.2%5 W · 36 L | -5.1wins | -0.12per pick | 25cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 16c | 114.94$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x97a5…c111backed Yes | 33c | 105$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.65 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…9b33backed No | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1543…4dbabacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a6…1b6cbacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bca…b60abacked Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 114 | 21.9%25 W · 89 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x714e…beeebacked Yes | 31c | 94.93$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.43 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Yes | 18c | 90$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 52 | 42.3%22 W · 30 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed Yes | 30c | 86$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 62 | 22.6%14 W · 48 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed No | 38c | 67.74$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 285 | 28.8%82 W · 203 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x450e…80aebacked No | 72c | 65.02$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.05 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca4…923dbacked Yes | 62c | 64.52$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -3.5wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x09ca…18ccbacked Yes | 38c | 51.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +111.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d6a…7f9cbacked Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8b…5945backed Yes | 33c | 38.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2506…3f35backed Yes | 31c | 38.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 33cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd026…d74bbacked No | 57c | 34.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +74.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11c8…be84backed No | 75c | 26.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.82 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1583…5896backed Yes | 42c | 24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 67c | 22.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.41 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd1c2…e8a3backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -50%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc877…05b4backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Marty Supreme" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 19m?this page
- Will "Marty Supreme" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 19m and 22m?No won
- Will "Marty Supreme" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 22m and 25m?No won
- Will "Marty Supreme" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 25m?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.