Middle East · resolved market
Will the US strike Somalia next?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x78a7554bdf3861f7557bc637ae5298d948fbe26632e10042b34b8a0f6724cc4a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,430,945
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,930,652
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,430,945 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 744 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1e10…4478backed No | 0c | 566,510$567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$566.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac7e…be9cbacked No | 0c | 400,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b65…e344backed No | 0c | 335,765$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.53 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -85.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe931…c40bbacked No | 0c | 300,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a52…da39backed No | 0c | 288,200$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb180…8858backed No | 0c | 286,647$1,156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,156 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f76…03cebacked No | 0c | 279,640$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0779…f01fbacked No | 0c | 224,000$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08b6…55febacked No | 0c | 200,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94b8…9735backed No | 0c | 200,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8937…80d9backed No | 0c | 150,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7128…75a2backed No | 1c | 131,927$1,595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,594.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…1135backed No | 0c | 121,500$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17c5…a080backed No | 0c | 120,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -84.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8da…41b4backed No | 0c | 117,429$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x400b…460abacked No | 0c | 115,430$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86db…adaabacked No | 0c | 103,140$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf1a…ccb9backed No | 0c | 100,290$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0d…4710backed No | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74e2…57fbbacked No | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa563…93dbbacked No | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81d8…e7cdbacked No | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x692d…97afbacked No | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x304d…cb05backed No | 0c | 99,000$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x529d…35fdbacked No | 0c | 91,400$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd109…2638backed No | 0c | 88,447$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89d3…b142backed No | 0c | 86,000$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0748…a31ebacked No | 2c | 78,835$1,830 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,830 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89c1…8815backed No | 0c | 75,000$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4918…0bf4backed No | 1c | 74,090$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f9…4ed3backed No | 0c | 68,731$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa154…2320backed No | 0c | 67,100$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -63%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd34…b6b9backed No | 1c | 65,057$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d2b…91dfbacked No | 0c | 60,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42ce…de37backed No | 0c | 60,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb50…2f5fbacked No | 0c | 57,723$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a38…e927backed No | 0c | 55,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +26%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…40b0backed No | 0c | 55,000$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd626…3dc4backed No | 0c | 51,000$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a77…61bfbacked No | 0c | 50,662$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.95 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf236…20d0backed No | 0c | 50,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbab5…15c5backed No | 0c | 50,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ba…af69backed No | 0c | 50,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdea6…ca36backed No | 0c | 50,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30ff…de31backed No | 0c | 50,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75f9…a5fdbacked No | 0c | 50,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ca…0fa1backed No | 0c | 50,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf10f…2626backed No | 0c | 50,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4e4…a467backed No | 0c | 49,965$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1cb…6204backed No | 0c | 49,250$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabb3…4ae5backed No | 0c | 47,527$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2e4…2140backed No | 0c | 46,635$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.77 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37bb…8c97backed No | 0c | 45,900$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x502c…c96bbacked No | 0c | 45,320$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc38…7aa6backed No | 0c | 45,000$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcef5…87ebbacked No | 1c | 43,570$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b7f…2c50backed No | 0c | 42,610$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0603…e162backed No | 0c | 42,000$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb3…f8d6backed No | 0c | 40,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe574…2fcebacked No | 0c | 40,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x323a…d4dbbacked No | 0c | 40,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc596…c316backed No | 0c | 40,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf53a…29acbacked No | 0c | 38,260$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13ff…91b4backed No | 0c | 38,000$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c3…27e2backed No | 0c | 37,219$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9940…1a9fbacked No | 0c | 37,000$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6aa…4949backed No | 0c | 35,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 19cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d6…7903backed No | 0c | 35,000$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65c8…2f21backed No | 0c | 34,500$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0add…0eb2backed No | 0c | 33,630$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdecb…4f5abacked No | 0c | 32,581$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb075…5800backed No | 0c | 30,490$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed4d…f8c6backed No | 0c | 30,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf71…8906backed No | 0c | 30,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22f5…8637backed No | 0c | 29,930$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0d2…e0abbacked No | 0c | 29,920$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ba…e27cbacked No | 0c | 29,673$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a1…7b8ebacked No | 0c | 29,147$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.23 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd870…5e51backed No | 0c | 28,483$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1502…6296backed No | 0c | 25,500$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5249…a928backed No | 0c | 25,460$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c1…4afbbacked No | 0c | 25,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f4…afe0backed No | 0c | 25,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e26…0e96backed No | 0c | 25,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f9…1011backed No | 0c | 24,000$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85c7…6ce1backed No | 0c | 23,700$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd323…5b2cbacked No | 0c | 23,000$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa565…0f4bbacked No | 0c | 23,000$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6118…8b86backed No | 0c | 23,000$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff55…9550backed No | 0c | 22,000$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3556…1458backed No | 0c | 22,000$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fcc…f5c2backed No | 0c | 21,350$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 6cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81e1…fcf9backed No | 0c | 21,000$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47d4…f594backed No | 0c | 21,000$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde7f…5eafbacked No | 0c | 21,000$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf435…0d0abacked No | 0c | 20,892$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57e4…60adbacked No | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33b0…15e1backed No | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x402b…aa3abacked No | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f12…ea8bbacked No | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the US strike Somalia next?this page
- Will the US not strike another country before 2027?No won
- Will the US strike Colombia next?No won
- Will the US strike Cuba next?No won
- Will the US strike Iran next?No won
- Will the US strike Iraq next?No won
- Will the US strike Mexico next?No won
- Will the US strike Nigeria next?No won
- Will the US strike Syria next?No won
- Will the US strike Venezuela next?No won
- Will the US strike Yemen next?No won
- Will the US strike another country first?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.