Middle East · resolved market
US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd1047755d35a03b7ceea9923daae56ecf67784446daa63e87eebc471b4b9dbd9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,491,723
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,752,875
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,491,723 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 3,578 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9648…6825backed No | 74c | 157,560$116,375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41,184.76 | 148 | 21.6%32 W · 116 L | -24.5wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x33e0…7d46backed No | 69c | 147,323$101,770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45,552.65 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -3.8wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfa39…977fbacked Yes | 1c | 85,772$746 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$746.16 | 88 | 17%15 W · 73 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef9a…5f7dbacked Yes | 2c | 81,455$1,499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,498.95 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…04bdbacked Yes | 12c | 81,143$9,720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,720.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x784f…5df9backed No | 63c | 75,608$47,408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28,200.49 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3da8…8262backed Yes | 8c | 72,129$6,076 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,076.36 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d3a…d8b8backed Yes | 31c | 71,062$22,237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,236.63 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd303…a125backed Yes | 28c | 70,277$19,872 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,871.67 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +3.0wins | +0.12per pick | 36cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0778…1276backed Yes | 16c | 66,539$10,798 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,798 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd576…d5e3backed Yes | 43c | 60,768$26,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26,000.43 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…01b4backed No | 61c | 59,464$36,563 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,900.81 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc09…9024backed Yes | 0c | 54,391$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.05 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5188…c804backed No | 45c | 52,899$23,757 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29,141.13 | 126 | 50.8%64 W · 62 L | +11.3wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 33c | 51,741$16,864 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,863.98 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4940…52efbacked Yes | 3c | 51,371$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x430f…5947backed No | 80c | 50,711$40,339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,372.61 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +61.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc830…42cabacked Yes | 2c | 50,000$1,235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,234.61 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9586…8320backed Yes | 0c | 50,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…6177backed Yes | 1c | 50,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 138 | 23.2%32 W · 106 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe07a…6adbbacked Yes | 65c | 49,366$32,335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32,334.51 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.26per pick | 44cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…a16dbacked No | 69c | 48,126$33,229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,896.56 | 161 | 25.5%41 W · 120 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b76…edefbacked Yes | 5c | 46,688$2,289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,288.59 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71bb…b1aebacked Yes | 7c | 43,297$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7744…999ebacked Yes | 18c | 40,653$7,194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,194.08 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x454c…722bbacked Yes | 20c | 37,849$7,570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,569.72 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffe…4071backed No | 62c | 37,619$23,328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,290.95 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 67c | 36,004$24,143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,860.57 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes | 29c | 35,845$10,479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,479.43 | 367 | 50.4%185 W · 182 L | +39.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe61a…ab8abacked Yes | 2c | 34,763$658 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$657.87 | 36 | 8.3%3 W · 33 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -84.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes | 11c | 34,503$3,884 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,883.52 | 287 | 50.2%144 W · 143 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc851…cd2abacked Yes | 24c | 33,932$8,044 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,043.68 | 75 | 38.7%29 W · 46 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbec7…22efbacked Yes | 12c | 32,202$4,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,000 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 26cpaid | -83.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xacbf…0c9abacked Yes | 31c | 31,856$9,773 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,772.96 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a0…6c71backed Yes | 47c | 31,251$14,717 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,717.06 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 19cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bc…026cbacked Yes | 32c | 31,094$10,048 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,048 | 99 | 30.3%30 W · 69 L | -7.7wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9eee…0a68backed Yes | 6c | 30,561$1,792 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,792.31 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -65%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe65a…ce48backed Yes | 28c | 30,514$8,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes | 1c | 30,196$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.14 | 404 | 33.7%136 W · 268 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 34c | 29,936$10,059 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,058.73 | 312 | 41.7%130 W · 182 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f5c…8b13backed Yes | 54c | 29,292$15,794 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,793.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc640…1748backed Yes | 26c | 29,034$7,481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,481 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bab…53e6backed Yes | 4c | 28,734$1,011 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,010.96 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 11c | 28,428$3,017 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,016.82 | 141 | 29.8%42 W · 99 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 31c | 28,303$8,650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,650 | 423 | 29.1%123 W · 300 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02d8…0c91backed No | 65c | 27,978$18,222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,755.97 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad0…bf3dbacked Yes | 12c | 27,714$3,291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,291.03 | 183 | 38.3%70 W · 113 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Yes | 34c | 27,221$9,225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,224.73 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd748…2125backed Yes | 33c | 26,728$8,745 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,745.27 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…a469backed No | 68c | 26,609$18,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,589.64 | 120 | 38.3%46 W · 74 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…e0eebacked Yes | 31c | 26,049$8,076 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,075.52 | 108 | 38%41 W · 67 L | +11.5wins | +0.11per pick | 27cpaid | +62.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x566a…0d19backed Yes | 8c | 25,868$1,954 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,954.2 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3402…9446backed No | 63c | 25,000$15,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,199.94 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +3.9wins | +0.16per pick | 28cpaid | +69.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x82dc…aa35backed Yes | 10c | 24,286$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35bb…009bbacked No | 79c | 23,961$18,936 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,025.84 | 165 | 53.9%89 W · 76 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf26b…7e3ebacked Yes | 17c | 23,390$3,872 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,871.59 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 19c | 23,127$4,481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,481.05 | 82 | 7.3%6 W · 76 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -79.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 21c | 22,870$4,760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,760.14 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5511…4f9dbacked No | 73c | 22,425$16,342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,082.69 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1005…6f5bbacked Yes | 66c | 22,099$14,477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,477 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 24c | 21,938$5,194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,193.9 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3c32…b464backed Yes | 2c | 21,878$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.8 | 64 | 7.8%5 W · 59 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb06…250abacked Yes | 2c | 21,780$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.19 | 31 | 6.5%2 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -86.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73cd…1a42backed Yes | 12c | 21,581$2,539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,538.76 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -70.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3f…43dcbacked Yes | 9c | 21,497$1,936 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,935.96 | 104 | 35.6%37 W · 67 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa643…d43dbacked Yes | 59c | 21,291$12,458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,458.45 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.28per pick | 41cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x536d…c4d6backed Yes | 14c | 20,748$2,907 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,906.8 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 17cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77fa…1a63backed Yes | 40c | 20,068$8,104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,104.43 | 75 | 29.3%22 W · 53 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4c…cb39backed No | 45c | 19,862$9,029 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,833.26 | 42 | 23.8%10 W · 32 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6e…b45bbacked No | 68c | 19,001$12,977 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,024.26 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Yes | 24c | 18,995$4,502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,502.08 | 203 | 36.9%75 W · 128 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 6c | 18,926$1,071 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,070.74 | 284 | 27.8%79 W · 205 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c5…2788backed Yes | 26c | 18,794$4,869 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,869.04 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -2.8wins | -0.16per pick | 21cpaid | -85.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab5…e56fbacked No | 74c | 18,727$13,791 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,935.54 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa579…aad0backed Yes | 1c | 18,457$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.4 | 86 | 10.5%9 W · 77 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48f3…9e4abacked No | 49c | 18,418$9,053 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,365.23 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +79.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05a9…1e0dbacked Yes | 32c | 17,964$5,816 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,816.34 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +3.5wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +321.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x83a2…9452backed No | 79c | 17,853$14,037 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,815.68 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +6.6wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +169.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5d2f…5034backed No | 70c | 17,619$12,421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,198.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc0…8a4dbacked Yes | 68c | 17,438$11,921 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,921.17 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36f7…4e1cbacked Yes | 21c | 17,428$3,582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,582.28 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d68…7960backed Yes | 2c | 17,200$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.3 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c41…dc46backed Yes | 1c | 16,804$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 41 | 2.4%1 W · 40 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -86.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6238…5f13backed Yes | 35c | 16,529$5,781 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,780.9 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd34b…0004backed No | 70c | 16,254$11,434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,819.57 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7d…20fcbacked Yes | 1c | 16,210$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea98…8626backed Yes | 3c | 16,073$511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$511.5 | 29 | 0%0 W · 29 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa117…a311backed No | 74c | 15,845$11,764 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,080.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb273…aa63backed Yes | 14c | 15,772$2,170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,170.46 | 74 | 23%17 W · 57 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83e1…6a54backed No | 75c | 15,670$11,735 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,935.39 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +113.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 30c | 15,586$4,703 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,702.77 | 50 | 22%11 W · 39 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -37%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d86…0e96backed No | 64c | 15,524$9,990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,533.74 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…6efebacked Yes | 2c | 15,405$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.58 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 10cpaid | +114.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9346…cb76backed Yes | 20c | 15,036$2,981 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,980.98 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf559…f462backed No | 77c | 15,005$11,515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,490.17 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7982…97b7backed Yes | 3c | 14,850$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -83.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f2…7851backed No | 55c | 14,660$8,082 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,577.85 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +80.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f5…f1c1backed No | 76c | 14,656$11,079 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,576.85 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7985…20a6backed Yes | 2c | 14,644$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.28 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00d3…b94abacked Yes | 25c | 14,431$3,552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,552.03 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 61. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?this page
- US strikes Iran by December 31, 2025?No won
- US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by February 1, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 12, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 14, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 15, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 16, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 17, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 2, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by February 3, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 4, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 5, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 7, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 8, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 11, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 12, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 13, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 17, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 24, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 25, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 28, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 29, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 30, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 10, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 11, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 12, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 13, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 14, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 3, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 4, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 5, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 6, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 7, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 8, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.