Middle East · resolved market

US strikes Iran by January 25, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4cca07aafd4267f7ceeb16e4ef7c7d5587cb906a13f5ab404275dad21dd6bff2

Rebuilt 2 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 26, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $2,703,692
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $2,239,511

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,703,692 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 444 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Middle East
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x46b2…0ce0backed Yes	2c	101,511$1,668 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,667.73	43	0%0 W · 43 L	-2.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd519…932cbacked Yes	1c	77,778$918 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$918.38	112	8.9%10 W · 102 L	-6.1wins	-0.05per pick	14cpaid	+149.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x090a…01b4backed Yes	2c	69,285$1,369 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,369	46	50%23 W · 23 L	+2.7wins	+0.06per pick	44cpaid	+6.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3e5b…073bbacked Yes	11c	66,546$7,442 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$7,441.63	39	35.9%14 W · 25 L	-1.8wins	-0.05per pick	41cpaid	-27.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b76…edefbacked Yes	2c	65,000$1,215 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,215	63	36.5%23 W · 40 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	34cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e7f…2d2dbacked Yes	1c	55,707$718 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$718.31	25	12%3 W · 22 L	-0.9wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	+116.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d05…6a81backed Yes	2c	38,089$705 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$704.57	432	12.5%54 W · 378 L	+11.0wins	+0.03per pick	10cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e5d…f85bbacked Yes	6c	36,712$2,100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,100	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x48af…89ccbacked Yes	2c	36,514$753 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$752.85	53	47.2%25 W · 28 L	+10.5wins	+0.20per pick	27cpaid	+27%equal weight	65+0.13 edge/pick
0xa3df…6f87backed Yes	2c	36,173$682 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$682.47	73	11%8 W · 65 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	-19.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4128…dc3cbacked Yes	2c	34,434$750 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$749.62	30	10%3 W · 27 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbec6…22a5backed Yes	7c	33,282$2,194 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,194.1	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcae5…6e29backed Yes	2c	32,925$560 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$560.41	23	8.7%2 W · 21 L	+1.0wins	+0.04per pick	4cpaid	+197.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa5d…ab88backed Yes	2c	30,085$679 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$679.02	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7ab…1dc3backed Yes	3c	28,442$819 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$819.43	28	0%0 W · 28 L	-1.5wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbb8e…b243backed Yes	2c	27,122$461 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$461.15	88	45.5%40 W · 48 L	+9.5wins	+0.11per pick	35cpaid	+48.1%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd517…5f34backed Yes	1c	25,900$326 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$326.5	38	7.9%3 W · 35 L	-2.3wins	-0.06per pick	14cpaid	-88.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc747…324bbacked Yes	2c	23,339$357 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$356.79	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0540…98ebbacked Yes	2c	20,762$349 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$349.21	56	10.7%6 W · 50 L	-3.6wins	-0.06per pick	17cpaid	-65%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2727…eef4backed Yes	8c	20,462$1,581 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,581.25	44	15.9%7 W · 37 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	16cpaid	-56.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes	4c	20,219$790 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$790.41	287	50.2%144 W · 143 L	-1.3wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x389d…5866backed Yes	5c	20,033$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-0.4wins	-0.05per pick	16cpaid	-34.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x66d6…50c7backed Yes	0c	20,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	43	39.5%17 W · 26 L	+4.5wins	+0.11per pick	29cpaid	+9%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x9cfe…294cbacked Yes	1c	19,800$159 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$159.2	14	14.3%2 W · 12 L	+1.2wins	+0.09per pick	6cpaid	+6.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd168…af9abacked Yes	2c	19,292$342 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$342.26	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2d4e…edb0backed Yes	2c	18,161$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	87	25.3%22 W · 65 L	+5.8wins	+0.07per pick	19cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed Yes	3c	18,092$475 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$475.28	141	29.8%42 W · 99 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	30cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes	3c	17,209$560 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$560.13	39	23.1%9 W · 30 L	-1.0wins	-0.02per pick	26cpaid	-37%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf210…f594backed Yes	3c	16,363$443 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$443.24	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfd2b…8e50backed Yes	2c	16,307$287 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$286.81	48	35.4%17 W · 31 L	+6.0wins	+0.12per pick	23cpaid	+44%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x27e0…2403backed Yes	2c	15,798$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$249.91	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee17…7260backed Yes	1c	15,754$218 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$217.52	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7744…999ebacked Yes	0c	15,429$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.86	39	33.3%13 W · 26 L	-1.4wins	-0.04per pick	37cpaid	-26.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b7f…2c50backed Yes	6c	15,074$900 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$900	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d5d…fcf1backed Yes	2c	14,944$244 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$243.74	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.7wins	-0.24per pick	24cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b3b…6a99backed Yes	1c	13,724$196 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$196.02	20	5%1 W · 19 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	-51%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b55…1e67backed Yes	3c	13,392$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	4	25%1 W · 3 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-55.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x05ad…d7c8backed Yes	1c	13,332$153 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$153.34	29	17.2%5 W · 24 L	+1.0wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-55.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6938…e766backed Yes	3c	12,853$322 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$322.39	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x41ad…163dbacked Yes	6c	12,744$751 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$750.57	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c41…dc46backed Yes	2c	12,555$246 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$245.78	41	2.4%1 W · 40 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	4cpaid	-86.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x18d0…2626backed Yes	2c	11,488$180 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$179.9	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.4wins	+0.09per pick	16cpaid	-56.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x853c…bd03backed Yes	3c	10,807$277 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$277.05	134	41.8%56 W · 78 L	+6.7wins	+0.05per pick	37cpaid	+9.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x30a7…02fabacked Yes	1c	10,584$142 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$142.09	85	15.3%13 W · 72 L	-4.8wins	-0.06per pick	21cpaid	-60.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0e1d…0c53backed Yes	18c	10,000$1,750 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,749.99	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	+0.9wins	+0.12per pick	26cpaid	+11.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes	1c	10,000$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	404	33.7%136 W · 268 L	+12.1wins	+0.03per pick	31cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xea98…8626backed Yes	10c	9,778$929 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$929.01	29	0%0 W · 29 L	-2.4wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes	0c	9,654$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.41	14	0%0 W · 14 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3bea…f95abacked Yes	1c	9,231$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	31	9.7%3 W · 28 L	-3.1wins	-0.10per pick	20cpaid	-60.3%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe61a…ab8abacked Yes	5c	8,428$421 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$421.4	36	8.3%3 W · 33 L	-1.8wins	-0.05per pick	13cpaid	-84.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfb4f…07c4backed Yes	2c	8,273$199 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$199.45	23	0%0 W · 23 L	-1.3wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xef9a…5f7dbacked Yes	6c	8,252$495 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$495.12	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.5wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0049…3a9abacked Yes	5c	8,034$404 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$403.8	20	15%3 W · 17 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-43.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb06…250abacked Yes	4c	8,000$320 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$320	31	6.5%2 W · 29 L	-1.4wins	-0.04per pick	11cpaid	-86.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b1d…c6debacked Yes	1c	7,850$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc2c4…5d30backed Yes	6c	7,806$499 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$499	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa37a…5207backed Yes	4c	7,617$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfc6d…9f36backed Yes	1c	7,444$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	46	43.5%20 W · 26 L	+1.1wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-20.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc019…91babacked Yes	6c	7,400$474 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$473.62	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0ead…9572backed Yes	1c	7,117$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	10	40%4 W · 6 L	+1.3wins	+0.13per pick	27cpaid	-20.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes	3c	7,066$227 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$227.47	423	29.1%123 W · 300 L	+14.7wins	+0.03per pick	26cpaid	-12%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xeef4…520dbacked Yes	2c	6,846$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	37	0%0 W · 37 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x371c…c236backed Yes	1c	6,800$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91.8	135	32.6%44 W · 91 L	+6.9wins	+0.05per pick	27cpaid	+24.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6f64…a2e0backed Yes	5c	6,585$319 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$319	86	7%6 W · 80 L	+1.7wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-23.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x054a…f218backed Yes	6c	6,525$387 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$386.66	18	0%0 W · 18 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa579…aad0backed Yes	1c	6,502$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.94	86	10.5%9 W · 77 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-58.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x06dc…af59backed Yes	2c	6,407$115 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$114.63	81	50.6%41 W · 40 L	+12.7wins	+0.16per pick	35cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	63+0.12 edge/pick
0x663c…56e1backed Yes	4c	6,265$229 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$229.49	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7982…97b7backed Yes	2c	6,150$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	15	6.7%1 W · 14 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	9cpaid	-83.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x08ce…f301backed Yes	3c	6,122$180 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$179.86	82	7.3%6 W · 76 L	-3.8wins	-0.05per pick	12cpaid	-79.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb003…b34ebacked Yes	1c	6,101$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.31	42	26.2%11 W · 31 L	-2.4wins	-0.06per pick	32cpaid	-45.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa846…3ab8backed Yes	2c	5,908$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.8wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x65bf…4b91backed Yes	1c	5,666$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.21	92	17.4%16 W · 76 L	-2.4wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8284…86f0backed Yes	7c	5,589$364 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$363.86	15	0%0 W · 15 L	-1.3wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaddf…5340backed Yes	7c	5,443$360 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$360	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5e44…0c4ebacked Yes	2c	5,322$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107	24	4.2%1 W · 23 L	-2.3wins	-0.10per pick	14cpaid	-93%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf747…c74fbacked Yes	2c	5,230$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0a21…c97cbacked Yes	1c	5,210$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+1.7wins	+0.35per pick	25cpaid	+68.7%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xac4c…b2f5backed Yes	2c	5,017$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-74.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x00f8…5e7fbacked Yes	0c	5,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.3wins	-0.07per pick	27cpaid	-65.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbab6…50a2backed Yes	7c	5,000$341 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$341.3	39	23.1%9 W · 30 L	-3.7wins	-0.09per pick	33cpaid	-49.7%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xbab3…0c6ebacked Yes	0c	5,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3a09…e2b8backed Yes	2c	5,000$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	14	42.9%6 W · 8 L	+2.4wins	+0.17per pick	26cpaid	+46.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc8b8…c770backed Yes	0c	5,000$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.35	66	16.7%11 W · 55 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	3c	4,957$167 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$166.64	419	5.3%22 W · 397 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-15.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfdf6…6fc4backed Yes	1c	4,938$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	32	15.6%5 W · 27 L	+1.7wins	+0.05per pick	10cpaid	-30.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a35…fc8ebacked Yes	1c	4,806$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.28	40	2.5%1 W · 39 L	-3.6wins	-0.09per pick	11cpaid	-83.3%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa9b2…4897backed Yes	5c	4,700$235 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$235	25	4%1 W · 24 L	-2.4wins	-0.10per pick	14cpaid	-94.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc0fb…d4bbbacked Yes	4c	4,626$192 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$192	12	25%3 W · 9 L	+1.7wins	+0.14per pick	11cpaid	+30.4%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x00b7…cfa0backed Yes	2c	4,500$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	21	28.6%6 W · 15 L	+0.5wins	+0.03per pick	26cpaid	-13.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc367…b3a4backed Yes	1c	4,481$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.1	3	0%0 W · 3 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3e00…b8c9backed Yes	6c	4,213$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	19	10.5%2 W · 17 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	9cpaid	-39.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0523…e38bbacked Yes	4c	4,200$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150.06	59	27.1%16 W · 43 L	-8.4wins	-0.14per pick	41cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0xd8db…3a7fbacked Yes	4c	4,191$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	18	0%0 W · 18 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes	2c	4,167$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.76	135	38.5%52 W · 83 L	+8.9wins	+0.07per pick	32cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc376…4a1cbacked Yes	7c	4,034$298 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$297.78	43	30.2%13 W · 30 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	30cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa1c6…50f9backed Yes	2c	3,954$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.9	13	7.7%1 W · 12 L	-0.6wins	-0.05per pick	12cpaid	-59.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3cde…374ebacked Yes	3c	3,948$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.3wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfea2…581ebacked Yes	5c	3,945$199 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$199.45	75	13.3%10 W · 65 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x82a7…9ea8backed Yes	1c	3,846$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	24	0%0 W · 24 L	-1.7wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 61. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

US strikes Iran by January 25, 2026?this page
US strikes Iran by December 31, 2025?No won
US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026?Yes won
US strikes Iran by February 1, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 12, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 14, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 15, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 16, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 17, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 2, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Yes won
US strikes Iran by February 3, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 4, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 5, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 7, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 8, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by January 11, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by January 12, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by January 13, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by January 17, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by January 24, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by January 28, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by January 29, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by January 30, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?Yes won
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?Yes won
US strikes Iran by March 10, 2026?Yes won
US strikes Iran by March 11, 2026?Yes won
US strikes Iran by March 12, 2026?Yes won
US strikes Iran by March 13, 2026?Yes won
US strikes Iran by March 14, 2026?Yes won
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?Yes won
US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026?Yes won
US strikes Iran by March 3, 2026?Yes won
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?Yes won
US strikes Iran by March 4, 2026?Yes won
US strikes Iran by March 5, 2026?Yes won
US strikes Iran by March 6, 2026?Yes won
US strikes Iran by March 7, 2026?Yes won
US strikes Iran by March 8, 2026?Yes won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

US strikes Iran by January 25, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event